Geraint Thomas, the next british hope

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hrotha said:
I'll believe that Dumoulin has figured it out when I see some of his teammates climbing close to his level. Until then, it's much simpler to think Dumoulin is simply doing his own thing, which works well for him but isn't quite whatever Sky is doing.
So Dumoulin, doing his own thing, has figured a formula that can match the best Sky have come up with? I know the guy wanted to become a doctor, but this sounds a bit far fetched. If a lone wolf can emulate it, then I guess Sky aren't really do anything all that special after all.
 
After all of the formulas he has figured out, Dumoulin didn't threaten the Sky leader in the 2 GTs this year. (Don't come with 'He only finished 40 seconds behind Froome in Giro' thing, Froome would have gained another 3 minutes on stage 20 if he needed it.)
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
hrotha said:
I'll believe that Dumoulin has figured it out when I see some of his teammates climbing close to his level. Until then, it's much simpler to think Dumoulin is simply doing his own thing, which works well for him but isn't quite whatever Sky is doing.
So Dumoulin, doing his own thing, has figured a formula that can match the best Sky have come up with? I know the guy wanted to become a doctor, but this sounds a bit far fetched. If a lone wolf can emulate it, then I guess Sky aren't really do anything all that special after all.
I must have missed the part where he wasn't still losing to them. I would also add that Thomas never had to ride at his limit at the Tour, so yeah. Also of course Dumoulin didn't literally do it alone without a doctor or some other highly qualified doping professional, wtf.
 
Barguil was going pretty well last year in the Tour even after a broken hip in late April and Kelderman had a career best GT result after not doing much in the previous 2 Tours.

And I would say being 3 minutes ahead with 2 mountain stages to go qualifies as threatening
 
The point of reference in this particular conversation was Sky as a whole, i.e. their program. Regardless, I think that counterargument is flawed, as it's based on the notion that if a rider matches Froome and/or Thomas athletically that must be because his doping program matches theirs in terms of performance boost, which in a way is based on the notion that they're all starting from a comparable level before doping is applied. Which is not something I accept in light of their respective career curves and those of their teammates.
 
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roundabout said:
Barguil was going pretty well last year in the Tour even after a broken hip in late April and Kelderman had a career best GT result after not doing much in the previous 2 Tours.

And I would say being 3 minutes ahead with 2 mountain stages to go qualifies as threatening
Fully agree with your first paragraph.

About the second one, Froome looked so stronger than everyone else on the last 2 days that I believe he could have gotten 6-7 minutes in total of those 2 days.
 
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Forever The Best said:
roundabout said:
Barguil was going pretty well last year in the Tour even after a broken hip in late April and Kelderman had a career best GT result after not doing much in the previous 2 Tours.

And I would say being 3 minutes ahead with 2 mountain stages to go qualifies as threatening
Fully agree with your first paragraph.

About the second one, Froome looked so stronger than everyone else on the last 2 days that I believe he could have gotten 6-7 minutes in total of those 2 days.

I have no way of knowing how much time Froome could have gained, but supposing the Finestre level time gain uphill of about 6 sec/km Froome would have needed to attack pretty much from the start of Tsecore to gain 3 minutes on the last stage. So regardless of how strong he looked, gaining 3 minutes in a head-to-head race against the second strongest rider is a lot harder than it looks.
 
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hrotha said:
The point of reference in this particular conversation was Sky as a whole, i.e. their program. Regardless, I think that counterargument is flawed, as it's based on the notion that if a rider matches Froome and/or Thomas athletically that must be because his doping program matches theirs in terms of performance boost, which in a way is based on the notion that they're all starting from a comparable level before doping is applied. Which is not something I accept in light of their respective career curves and those of their teammates.

I think (and I might be wrong), DFA123's point is that whatever Dumoulin doing, he at least is pretty close to Sky when everything is put together.

Maybe what he is doing is less than Sky (even if it's really pointless nitpicking to me trying to quantify the unquantifiable), but that's not really the point as I understood it.
 
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roundabout said:
Forever The Best said:
roundabout said:
I would say that Dumoulin pretty much matched Froome over 2 GTs, but now suddenly Thomas is the point of comparison?
Thomas was the stronger rider of Sky in this Tour the last time I checked.

For me at least, it doesn't make sense to compare a rider doing the double with one who is not.
Fair point. However I believe that Froome would have won the Tour without Thomas. I think that Sky decided Thomas should win after all the things after salbutamol and so Froome didn't have the ideal program.
 
Re: Re:

roundabout said:
Forever The Best said:
roundabout said:
Barguil was going pretty well last year in the Tour even after a broken hip in late April and Kelderman had a career best GT result after not doing much in the previous 2 Tours.

And I would say being 3 minutes ahead with 2 mountain stages to go qualifies as threatening
Fully agree with your first paragraph.

About the second one, Froome looked so stronger than everyone else on the last 2 days that I believe he could have gotten 6-7 minutes in total of those 2 days.

I have no way of knowing how much time Froome could have gained, but supposing the Finestre level time gain uphill of about 6 sec/km Froome would have needed to attack pretty much from the start of Tsecore to gain 3 minutes on the last stage. So regardless of how strong he looked, gaining 3 minutes in a head-to-head race against the second strongest rider is a lot harder than it looks.
Dumoulin was looking like he was running on empty fumes on the last day. He could have lost some massive time even if Froome attacked on, let's say, Saint Pantaleon.

It also looked to me after the race that Sky had the control all the time and was just waiting for that stage.
 
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Libertine Seguros said:
gregrowlerson said:
In regards to the excellent recent post on Anglophones vs. Continentals, I think that there is a feeling amongst many that British riders don't belong here, that they belong on the track, type of sentiment. It's also the invading aspect.....France, Italy and Spain host the grand tours and their riders have historically always had the most success. Hence their current day riders are given more credibility by some as being more naturally talented than their apparently donkeyesque counterparts.


Now, also, if Thomas had won the Tour in the fashion of, say, Ryder Hesjedal in the 2012 Giro, by being underestimated and hanging on in the mountains early on and taking advantage of the bonus time he got in week 1 thanks to his prior skillset, and then defended in the mountains like he's Melcior Mauri or something, or if he'd done a Giovannetti and got a big lead thanks to his Classics skills and then dropped back slowly but not quickly enough for the competition's liking in the mountains, he might have been easier to stomach. But that isn't what we saw. We saw him breathing through his nose and happily riding away from the lightweight specialist climbers, time after time. We saw him winning the queen stage on a mythical mountain by outclimbing the best. It's not that he doesn't belong because he's British. He doesn't belong, in the eyes of the sceptics, because we haven't seen him emerge after a short period of deciding what type of rider he wants to be, but instead we've seen him for a decade, we've learnt what type of rider he is, what his strengths and weaknesses are, and his current style and achievements are so completely out of line with that that it is difficult to accept.

I think this is such an important point. It's not about riding in the select climbers group or even winning a tour - it's about being easily the best climber in a race where all the very best climbers in the world come together in top form - after previously never showing anything like that kind of ability.

Jalabert is a good kind of comparison, as you mentioned, but the more I look at it, the more I think "Riis '96." Superdomestique with a very good engine suddenly starts smashing everyone on the big climbs, including the seemingly invincible Indurain and all the pretenders to his throne.

I really believe that if G needed to take some proper time on the climbs, he could have. I think he had plenty left in the tank, even whilst quality climbers/GC riders on other teams are getting dropped like flies. That is what is so, so implausible; as LS said - to hang on, maybe. To blitz?? No. Just no.
 
Re: Re:

Libertine Seguros said:
gregrowlerson said:
In regards to the excellent recent post on Anglophones vs. Continentals, I think that there is a feeling amongst many that British riders don't belong here, that they belong on the track, type of sentiment. It's also the invading aspect.....France, Italy and Spain host the grand tours and their riders have historically always had the most success. Hence their current day riders are given more credibility by some as being more naturally talented than their apparently donkeyesque counterparts.
I went through at great length why Sky and their riders attract more a) suspicion and b) distaste than others without recourse to nationality last year, and don't want to repeat myself any more than is necessary, but in summary I disagree with this. It's not that British riders 'don't belong', after all we don't see the same distaste to a great extent around British riders outside of the Team Sky umbrella - the Yates twins, albeit with Simon having stuck his head a little above the parapet in the Giro, or Hugh Carthy for example - and even some riders from within it who've had some reasonable success too - Ian Stannard, for example. Even Thomas himself, while he was a Classics man, attracted less attention in the Clinic for his achievement level than you might have expected.

Now, one point that I think does need raising is that the countries you mention have much more established national calendars, amateur and espoir scenes and so forth, which means it's easier for a young rider to emerge and show the kind of results that give them that perception of credible natural talent. For example, an 18-year-old Romain Bardet was top 5 in the Tour des Pays des Savoie, a 19-year-old Mikel Landa won the Subida a Gorla, a 19-year-old Nairo Quintana was 7th in the Subida a Urkiola against seasoned pros. That kind of result is much harder for a Briton to obtain as there is very little in the way of climbing races on a very sprint-heavy British national calendar focusing on crits and TTs for them to discover such talents. As a result, transitioning to climbing on the road can often be a slower process, or require fleeing the British cycling nest, like Dan Martin did and Hugh Carthy and Dan Whitehouse too. Simon Yates won a HTF in the Tour of Britain in 2013 before turning pro, at which stage Thomas was riding the Tour with Barloworld, but with no attempt to really do anything more than survive which is fair enough at that stage (he's not Egan Bernal); the flip side of having fewer calendar races is that the globalisation drive means more chances to jump up to the pro level - a French equivalent of Russell Downing does not get to the WT in 2010, for example - and with Barloworld having a strong Anglo influence, riders who were at a lesser level than many still in the domestic scene in Italy, Spain or France were riding at the World Tour level, so some of the prospects from those nations were still developing domestically meaning they have a more instant success level when they make it to the top level rather than being visible whilst clearly not ready for a couple of years furthering the impression of them as a no-hoper (at the same time, see the mention a few weeks ago of Indurain's first couple of Vueltas, as a teenage pro-am rider). However, because of riding as a stagiare with Saunier Duval and getting an international calendar with Barloworld, it's not like Thomas didn't have the opportunity to show some climbing ability young, that might take some of the suspicion off his latter-day transformation now. You can't even argue "but he was aiming at the track back then" because Peter Kennaugh was a Team Pursuit guy too, and he was on the podium of the Girobio, including matching Richie Porte who's four years older than him on Monte Carpegna, at 20. Thomas wasn't even trying to be a climber at that point, because it was antithetical to his aims.

But that's what causes the "you don't belong" attitude. Not that they're British per se, but that they're just deciding to be a different type of rider one day, and then becoming one of the best at it. Like Laurent Jalabert after his crash with the policeman suddenly turning into a GC climber, it is a lot harder to swallow from people like Thomas and Wiggins, who have completely different specialisms that they seem perfectly built and prepared for, and then just change tack completely. Saying they had gold medals from the track can only take us so far; Joaquím Rodríguez had all the class in the world as a road cyclist, but if he took on the hour record and beat Wiggins' mark, you bet people would cry foul - because Joaquím Rodríguez was a puncheur and an explosive climber, and built accordingly, and that build was completely disadvantageous to the kind of skillset required to be a track pursuiter or time trialist, two key skills required for the Hour. It's not a claiming that Thomas was not a skilled cyclist before, because he was. He was a damned good classics man, in fact, whose propensity for crashes was the only thing that stopped him racking up a formidable palmarès because he'd frequently be super-strong in those races. However, one-day racing is a lot harder to reduce to formulae than stage races, because the longer the race, the less impact each misstep or mishap has as part of the overall whole, and the more easy it is to control as a result because if you keep it to minimal numbers of mishaps, you've got maximum available time elsewhere to compensate for it. Perhaps that's why he moved to the stage racing side of things.

Now, also, if Thomas had won the Tour in the fashion of, say, Ryder Hesjedal in the 2012 Giro, by being underestimated and hanging on in the mountains early on and taking advantage of the bonus time he got in week 1 thanks to his prior skillset, and then defended in the mountains like he's Melcior Mauri or something, or if he'd done a Giovannetti and got a big lead thanks to his Classics skills and then dropped back slowly but not quickly enough for the competition's liking in the mountains, he might have been easier to stomach. But that isn't what we saw. We saw him breathing through his nose and happily riding away from the lightweight specialist climbers, time after time. We saw him winning the queen stage on a mythical mountain by outclimbing the best. It's not that he doesn't belong because he's British. He doesn't belong, in the eyes of the sceptics, because we haven't seen him emerge after a short period of deciding what type of rider he wants to be, but instead we've seen him for a decade, we've learnt what type of rider he is, what his strengths and weaknesses are, and his current style and achievements are so completely out of line with that that it is difficult to accept.

Of course it doesn't help that he has one thing against him that hurts him more than anything else: Dave Brailsford. Thomas is a Brailsford lifer. His entire career and everything that he's achieved is linked to Brailsford. It doesn't matter that Thomas is very personable and has handled himself very well throughout this - you appear with Brailsford, suspicion is on you like white on rice. This is a point where Britain does have a perception problem, because the fact that the sport does not have the same level of grass roots and established national and amateur races that France, Spain, Belgium or Italy have means that the vast majority of their successful riders have come via some level of contact with Brailsford. But that's not a problem that leaves the implication that Britons don't belong, but rather that in the eyes of many fans it is Sky's way of doing things, with its sanitized, propagandized PR, its bludgeoning race tactics, its competition-strangling budget, and its continued charm offensive in the face of repeated examples of a complete lack of integrity, that does not belong, and unfortunately because of the central role Brailsford has had in British cycling and how centralised that has been for the last couple of decades, that means that very few of the péloton's Britons are spared that interpretation.

Very well written as always good man.

As I mentioned somewhere else, for me, I wasn't all that surprised by the outcome of this Tour, feeling that GT's bigger transformation has come from 2014-2015. But it could also be that I am not as disgusted as some because he comes across as classy, on and off the bike. However, Thomas was arguably climbing at a 41 minute Alp d'Huez level in 2015 (2nd in Swiss). Perhaps that was really a 40 minute ride (given the slowing for Nibali) and it was also in the third week, so he has made some improvements, but not an extreme improvement to me from 2015-2018. Even in 2016 he was sitting top 5 until week 3, so we have seen a slight improvement in his top level climbing, as well as improvement in his recovery (which is bound to naturally improve with greater focus as a GC rider). So in the 2016 Tour he wasn't far behind Froome in climbing level, and in 2018 Froome was backing up from the Giro, so when strictly comparing to Froome, GT being slightly better than Froome in this Tour isn't all that surprising. Likewise with Dumoulin doing the double. It's difficult to know what the level was of the rest of the field. It would be easier to make judgement if Porte had survived and then gone head to head with Thomas.

Excellent points about the hilly races being more available to juniors from other countries to display their talent early, as well as the rolled eyes aspect of a professional just one day deciding to be good at a totally different discipline, and almost immediately achieving results. I am certainly not defending Thomas. I just don't think that what we have seen recently is anything on the donkey level and sudden sharp rise as Froome in 2011 (and then the performances that we saw in 2013). Though most people are not saying that Thomas is as absurd as Froome, admittedly.

I have to admit that if someone had told me pre Tour that Thomas was to win the Tour, I would have said, "Oh, he was a slight outsider, but a likely top 5 finisher. How much did he gain on the cobbled stage?"

Obviously he didn't gain anything on the cobbled stage, and was the strongest climber. How much stronger we don't really know though. We also don't know if Quintana didn't get his prep right, how good Landa would have been without crashing, Porte, third week Nibali, etc.

Thomas may well have finished between 3-5th at the 2017 Giro if he had not have crashed. We will never know. Such a result would add more credence to his 2015-18 upward curve. Pre 2015 I cannot defend.

P.S. Re d'huez times, I had seen somewhere that Lance did it in just over 37 and Jan in just over 39 in 2001, though perhaps those times were incorrect. It certainly seemed like Lance went up there very quickly!
 
Re: Re:

The Hegelian said:
Libertine Seguros said:
gregrowlerson said:
In regards to the excellent recent post on Anglophones vs. Continentals, I think that there is a feeling amongst many that British riders don't belong here, that they belong on the track, type of sentiment. It's also the invading aspect.....France, Italy and Spain host the grand tours and their riders have historically always had the most success. Hence their current day riders are given more credibility by some as being more naturally talented than their apparently donkeyesque counterparts.


Now, also, if Thomas had won the Tour in the fashion of, say, Ryder Hesjedal in the 2012 Giro, by being underestimated and hanging on in the mountains early on and taking advantage of the bonus time he got in week 1 thanks to his prior skillset, and then defended in the mountains like he's Melcior Mauri or something, or if he'd done a Giovannetti and got a big lead thanks to his Classics skills and then dropped back slowly but not quickly enough for the competition's liking in the mountains, he might have been easier to stomach. But that isn't what we saw. We saw him breathing through his nose and happily riding away from the lightweight specialist climbers, time after time. We saw him winning the queen stage on a mythical mountain by outclimbing the best. It's not that he doesn't belong because he's British. He doesn't belong, in the eyes of the sceptics, because we haven't seen him emerge after a short period of deciding what type of rider he wants to be, but instead we've seen him for a decade, we've learnt what type of rider he is, what his strengths and weaknesses are, and his current style and achievements are so completely out of line with that that it is difficult to accept.

I think this is such an important point. It's not about riding in the select climbers group or even winning a tour - it's about being easily the best climber in a race where all the very best climbers in the world come together in top form - after previously never showing anything like that kind of ability.

Jalabert is a good kind of comparison, as you mentioned, but the more I look at it, the more I think "Riis '96." Superdomestique with a very good engine suddenly starts smashing everyone on the big climbs, including the seemingly invincible Indurain and all the pretenders to his throne.

I really believe that if G needed to take some proper time on the climbs, he could have. I think he had plenty left in the tank, even whilst quality climbers/GC riders on other teams are getting dropped like flies. That is what is so, so implausible; as LS said - to hang on, maybe. To blitz?? No. Just no.

What difference does going uphill make? None of those riders would hold Thomas's wheel in a 4 minute pursuit either. Thomas's endurance is hardly a secret, that's his specialism. Climbers specialism isn't endurance, that's why they generally don't win Tour de France because you need to be an all-rounder. Coppi, Anquetil, Merckx, Indurain, Rominger, Wiggins, Dumoulin, Thomas etc are all the same type of rider. It's not a coincidence they would all be likely to, or were long-term hour record holders and raced track too and that's because they have a level of endurance most riders, especially climbers and punchers simply can't match. I don't see it as a surprise at all, all-rounders with huge engines win Tour de France and always have. Thomas & Dumoulin are the perfect all-rounders to win them.
 
Endurance and your cardiovascular system doesn't change just because you go uphill other than some are affected more than others above 1500m is what i'm talking about, simply your weight becomes important that's all. Any rider can lose weight, so after that it's who has the bigger engine and endurance capacity. In Coppi's day, he came out of the Tour de France and his hour record then held for 14 years. Coppi wasn't a pure climber, he was an all-rounder with a huge diesel engine just like all the tour winners Merckx, Anquetil and Wiggins who also took an hour record and smashed ITT were.
 
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samhocking said:
What difference does going uphill make? None of those riders would hold Thomas's wheel in a 4 minute pursuit either. Thomas's endurance is hardly a secret, that's his specialism. Climbers specialism isn't endurance, that's why they generally don't win Tour de France because you need to be an all-rounder. Coppi, Anquetil, Merckx, Indurain, Rominger, Wiggins, Dumoulin, Thomas etc are all the same type of rider. It's not a coincidence they would all be likely to, or were long-term hour record holders and raced track too and that's because they have a level of endurance most riders, especially climbers and punchers simply can't match. I don't see it as a surprise at all, all-rounders with huge engines win Tour de France and always have. Thomas & Dumoulin are the perfect all-rounders to win them.
You've been told already that the pursuit thing is a moot point. Let it go.

What difference does going uphill make? None of those riders would hold Cancellara's wheel on a 50km flat TT either. A 50km flat TT! That's like an hour of effort! Comparable to Ventoux, right? Only Cancellara never even got close to top 50 in a GT because it turns out that being good on the flats and being good uphill isn't even close to being the same in the real world. Come join us in the real world, Sam. It's pretty great here.
 
Cancellera was always 10kg too heavy. I'm not sure he even tried to win Tour de France did he?
As for pursuit, you're simply wrong. It's pure endurance, no different than an hour record or flat TT is. You can either hold 430-450 watts for an hour or you can't is all i'm saying. Training for a 4km pursuit involves training for an hour or more at threshold and then above. You can't add 500w over 4 minutes to nothing you know, it doesn't work like that. As Wiggins said he could hold 430 watts for an hour simply off his Tour de France form, but it wouldn't be enough for the Hour record requiring 440w, so he had to train for it.
 
Thomas was never 10 kg too heavy, except in 2012, when we did see him suck at climbing and be much better at time-trialing, as you'd expect. If he's significantly lighter now than at any other point in his career, that's very suspicious in itself, both because he's time-trialing even better and because we have reason to suspect weight-loss drugs are a key factor nowadays.

And no matter how you cut it, pursuit is not comparable to the road.
 
Re:

samhocking said:
Cancellera was always 10kg too heavy. I'm not sure he even tried to win Tour de France did he?
As for pursuit, you're simply wrong. It's pure endurance, no different than an hour record or flat TT is. You can either hold 430-450 watts for an hour or you can't is all i'm saying. Training for a 4km pursuit involves training for an hour or more at threshold and then above. You can't add 500w over 4 minutes to nothing you know, it doesn't work like that.
Let's not forget that Wiggins, Froome and Thomas all improved their TTing - quite significantly - AFTER becoming genuine GT contenders. Their TT results actually got better after they lost their weight and turned into super-climbers.

Thomas is a better TTist now than he was as a track rider. Wiggins was a much better TTist in 2011-12 than when he was winning countless gold medals on the track. And Froome, well.... :Neutral:
 
Apr 20, 2012
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samhocking said:
Endurance and your cardiovascular system doesn't change just because you go uphill other than some are affected more than others above 1500m is what i'm talking about, simply your weight becomes important that's all. Any rider can lose weight, so after that it's who has the bigger engine and endurance capacity. In Coppi's day, he came out of the Tour de France and his hour record then held for 14 years. Coppi wasn't a pure climber, he was an all-rounder with a huge diesel engine just like all the tour winners Merckx, Anquetil and Wiggins who also took an hour record and smashed ITT were.
Richard Moore calling, he wants his tweet back.

I think this 'discussion' was done 6 years when a former tracky suddenly won the Tour?

'Just lost the fat"

'Always had the engine'

Blablabla.

Ever heard of muscle fibres?

Only at Sky they can morph those fibres from good at time trials to breathing through the nose on Hors Category climbs?

Just asking.

Thomas had so much more in the tank, trully disappointed he didnt get the call 'go do a Froomey' from the team car.
 
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hrotha said:
Thomas was never 10 kg too heavy, except in 2012, when we did see him suck at climbing and be much better at time-trialing, as you'd expect. If he's significantly lighter now than at any other point in his career, that's very suspicious in itself, both because he's time-trialing even better and because we have reason to suspect weight-loss drugs are a key factor nowadays.

And no matter how you cut it, pursuit is not comparable to the road.
Yep, as Ullrich would say - if you can't put 1+1 together, then I can't help you.
 
Any rider can loose weight, cheaprly, easily and without detection. Corticosteroids are perfectly legal out of competition, so it's not a sky monopoly! Simply don't race for a month or two and train and take them to loose weight before Tour de France! There's no secret to weight loss, either use steroids or go into calorific debt. Even MPCC riders can do this, just stay at home for 8 days more training that's all.

Take Wiggins. He said he could hold 430W for an hour after his Tour win, simply off the form that gave him. 430W is not enough for him to beat the hour record though, but is enough to win for Tour de France, Olympic and World ITT, so he had to put some muscle weight back on and train for a period of adaptation to take place in order to hit 440W for an hour and did that to beat the hour record.
There's a misconception you lose lots of power with weight loss. In the past with sudden weight loss from Corticosteroid abuse and lack of sports science and nutrition understanding is probably where that myth comes from from what I've read about how to do it recently.
Sure, to get from Hour record form, 4kg heavier than his Tour form looses him 10W in an all out hours effort up a climb for an hour, but all riders are losing that 10W too with their weight loss or smaller endurance/muscle capacity, but it's still going to mean the rider with the biggest inherent engine and endurance capacity will win or do very well though. There's a reason pure climbers don't have great endurance in stage races, there's a reason they'll never own and hour record, just like they will never win an important ITT like Anquetil or Coppi or Merckx or Wiggins either and struggle to win Tour de Frances too.