Teams & Riders Geraint Thomas

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I don't know, I just like Thomas.
I fine him extremely likeable as a person, much more so than Wiggins/Froome. He's probably wishing he'd switched focus to GTs earlier in his career, but unfortunately those two were taking up all the oxygen at Sky. I rated him the Giro favorite last year before the unfortunate water bottle incident.

(again, looking at what happened to porte in P-N, i still think that having disposable plastic water bottles is ridiculous! surely the WT can force riders to use hydration sacs, with bottles only allowed, say, on a climb.)
 
If he has his act together (i.e. having 2018 form), I still think he can actually surprise against Pog/Rog.
Its a big if. But I agree, Grand Tour winning G is a better TT rider than either, which means they have to break a very strong train. While also worrying about Carapaz, who has been better than or equal to Roglic in his last 2 grand tours riding for the win.
 
Almost 60 km of flat TT suit him well. He'll have an incredibly strong team too. If they have 3 GC contenders (i.e. Thomas, Carapaz, Yates) then their collective effort may tire Pog/Rog and their teams in the mountains making it more interesting.
Yates not doing the Tour, 3rd GC contender could be Porte if he comes out of GC retirement already or TGH if he finds Stelvio level regularly.
 
  1. Pog (untouchable)
  2. G (only if he can stay on his bike)
  3. Rog
I’d love G to take time out of Pog on the TTs forcing Pog to go thermonuclear in the mountains.
Whenever Roglic & Pogacar aren't there, Ineos get super overrated.

I mean what on earth am I reading? i.e. Roglic who just won Itzulia in front of Pogacar is going to lose against 35 year old Thomas? I don't think so. You can quote me on this later.

He has zero explosiveness in the mountains & he'll get dropped before the summit, i.e. you'll watch the two Slovenians dance off their saddle whilst the same people who today claimed Thomas can win the Tour scratch their heads & wonder why he's not capable of following.
 
Whenever Roglic & Pogacar aren't there, Ineos get super overrated.

I mean what on earth am I reading? i.e. Roglic who just won Itzulia in front of Pogacar is going to lose against 35 year old Thomas? I don't think so. You can quote me on this later.

He has zero explosiveness in the mountains & he'll get dropped before the summit, i.e. you'll watch the two Slovenians dance off their saddle whilst the same people who today claimed Thomas can win the Tour scratch their heads & wonder why he's not capable of following.
1 week race v. 3 weeks

Rog a different rider.

G in 2018 (or close to) form hangs with Rog easy in mountains, beats him in TTs and outlasts him in third week.
 
  1. Pog (untouchable)
  2. G (only if he can stay on his bike)
  3. Rog
I’d love G to take time out of Pog on the TTs forcing Pog to go thermonuclear in the mountains.
I can't really put Thomas ahead of the guy that almost won last year's Tour and won the two last Vueltas. Jumbo will also take a really strong team so I don't think that will make much of a difference.

Pogačar has been looking good in TTs lately so I doubt that Thomas can take a lot of time there.
 
I can't really put Thomas ahead of the guy that almost won last year's Tour and won the two last Vueltas. Jumbo will also take a really strong team so I don't think that will make much of a difference.

Pogačar has been looking good in TTs lately so I doubt that Thomas can take a lot of time there.
see my other reply re: Rog and drop off in third week.

I agree that it requires a G in 2018 form.

anyway, as noted in many of my posts I do not believe theTDF will even be close. Pog easy.
 
This is simply not true.
It is true.

Pogacar & Roglic have puncheur qualities. Thomas doesn't. Against current year Pogacar & Roglic, 2018 Thomas isn't enough. They'll eat him alive on the climb finishes.

see my other reply re: Rog and drop off in third week.

I agree that it requires a G in 2018 form.

anyway, as noted in many of my posts I do not believe theTDF will even be close. Pog easy.
It'll be close, close & super close between Roglic & Pogacar. I cant predict the outcome between those two because they're so evenly matched.

Thomas will be somewhere behind (a couple of minutes). Last year's Vuelta is no indication of Roglic's overall potential in this year's Tour because he was on his last legs, i.e. the so-called Roglic third week drop off is based on a few exceptional circumstances in those particular races. This year, he'll be arriving fresh.
 
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1 week race v. 3 weeks

Rog a different rider.

G in 2018 (or close to) form hangs with Rog easy in mountains, beats him in TTs and outlasts him in third week.
While I think Thomas will be dangerous, I don't get why you keep bringing up 2018. Firstly, Thomas has never achieved that level again after that. Secondly, Roglič is a different beast now than he was in 2018. He wasn't even supposed to ride for GC back then.
 
While I think Thomas will be dangerous, I don't get why you keep bringing up 2018. Firstly, Thomas has never achieved that level again after that. Secondly, Roglič is a different beast now than he was in 2018. He wasn't even supposed to ride for GC back then.
This is a common theme now, i.e. Ineos winning races where the aforementioned Slovenian terminators aren't racing & suddenly some people label them Tour favorites.

Thomas deserves some serious respect for reaching this kind of level again (certainly after the crash in the Giro last year would have demoralized some lesser riders), but it does him no favors whatsoever to say he's suddenly better than Primoz Roglic & back in the hunt for yellow in Paris.

Roglic & Pogacar in 2021 are like peak Contador versus peak Schleck, or peak Pantani versus peak Ullrich, or peak Lance versus peak whomever (ignore the clinic implications, I'm talking actual performance level with regards to the competition).

They'll fly away on the summit finishes like they did last year (like when Bernal started whining about his best numbers not being enough). Thomas is a level below them.
 
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As if Roglic is a rider who flies away on summit finishes.

And speaking of flying away, the difference vs Porte on Peyrol/Grand Colombier/Loze combined was 1'04'' in pure elapsed time

Without the echelon stage, the gap to Porte was 1'10'' over 3 weeks.

But sure, keep on believing that Roglic can thump everyone at will.
 
This is a common theme now, i.e. Ineos winning races where the aforementioned Slovenian terminators aren't racing & suddenly some people label them Tour favorites.

Thomas deserves some serious respect for reaching this kind of level again (certainly after the crash in the Giro last year would have demoralized some lesser riders), but it does him no favors whatsoever to say he's suddenly better than Primoz Roglic & back in the hunt for yellow in Paris.

Roglic & Pogacar in 2021 are like peak Contador versus peak Schleck, or peak Pantani versus peak Ullrich, or peak Lance versus peak whomever (ignore the clinic implications, I'm talking actual performance level with regards to the competition).

They'll fly away on the summit finishes like they did last year (like when Bernal started whining about his best numbers not being enough). Thomas is a level below them.
I think the vast majority still has Pogi and Rogla as their no.1 and no.2. What they see (I see it too in some extent) is Thomas as a threat as a part of a extremely strong unit of GC riders on the team. They have 3GT winners plus a podium finisher from last year's Tour on the team and possibly Bernal or Yates will be added, too. I think 1 on 1 they are no match for the two Slovenians at the moment, but if they play their cards right, they can be very dangerous.

Of course Jumbo Visma has a very strong team, too. So it will be hard for Ineos to find a weakness. But Jumbo will at the same time try to use the team strength against Pogačar and UAE, so Ineos can try to use this to their advantage. It should be fascinating to watch hopefully.
 
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