"I could feel my legs going with a K and a half, don’t want to make excuses, I just didn’t feel like I had that grunt."
“It’s still frustrating, I think just because of the way I rode it, with the wheels falling off a bit in the last 3 or 4k."
Thomas was only 2 seconds down on Roglic at the base of the climb, so something happened going up the climb. Maybe just 3 weeks racing catching up with him or an Ineos reprise of last year's Giro when Carapaz blew up when he looked like winning - snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!
What happened is Roglic was going up the climb faster, leading to Thomas pushing too hard and not being able to sustain the same W/kg the entire climb.
# | START* | RIDER | T1 | # | KM/H | | T1-T2 | # | KM/H | | T2-T3 | # | KM/H | | T3-T4 | # | KM/H | |
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| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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1 | 17:11:00 | ROGLIČ Primož | 13.49 | 1 | 46.900 | | 20.14 | 2 | 13.344 | | 8.17 | 1 | 18.109 | | 2.03 | 1 | 23.415 | |
2 | 17:14:00 | THOMAS Geraint | 13.51 | 2 | 46.787 | | 20.28 | 3 | 13.192 | | 8.30 | 5 | 17.647 | | 2.14 | 15 | 21.493 | |
3 | 17:08:00 | ALMEIDA João | 13.53 | 3 | 46.675 | | 20.42 | 6 | 13.043 | | 8.25 | 3 | 17.822 | | 2.05 | 2 | 23.040 | |
4 | 17:05:00 | CARUSO Damiano | 13.56 | 4 | 46.507 | | 20.39 | 5 | 13.075 | | 8.36 | 6 | 17.442 | | 2.07 | 5 | 22.677 | |
5 | 16:59:00 | PINOT Thibaut | 14.07 | 8 | 45.903 | | 20.45 | 8 | 13.012 | | 8.24 | 2 | 17.857 | | 2.06 | 3 | 22.857 | |
6 | 16:32:00 | KUSS Sepp | 14.27 | 18 | 44.844 | | 20.08 | 1 | 13.411 | | 8.43 | 9 | 17.208 | | 2.10 | 7 | 22.154 | |
7 | 16:14:00 | MCNULTY Brandon | 14.06 | 7 | 45.957 | | 20.47 | 9 | 12.991 | | 8.27 | 4 | 17.751 | | 2.10 | 8 | 22.154 | |
8 | 16:56:00 | ARENSMAN Thymen | 14.11 | 12 | 45.687 | | 20.42 | 7 | 13.043 | | 8.36 | 7 | 17.442 | | 2.12 | 13 | 21.818 | |
9 | 16:50:00 | LEKNESSUND Andreas | 14.13 | 13 | 45.580 | | 21.00 | 10 | 12.857 | | 8.44 | 10 | 17.176 | | 2.15 | 20 | 21.333 | |
10 | 16:09:00 | VINE Jay | 14.00 | 5 | 46.286 | | 21.17 | 14 | 12.686 | | 8.45 | 11 | 17.143 | | 2.14 | 17 | 21.493 | |
Thomas was 3rd fastest on the T1-T2 split, 14s slower than Roglic and 20s slower than Kuss. He was then 5th fastest on the T2-T3 split, which is where he already started suffering in the final minutes of that split. He was then 15th fastest in the final T3-T4 split but that's only 2 minutes.
But what should be paid attention to is that in the T2-T3 split, where Roglic had his mechanical and lost 15 seconds or so - he was still the fastest. This means Roglic, unlike nearly everyone else, did a negative split on the climb and was obliterating everyone in the final 10 minute section.
Pacing mattered a lot. The final top 5 correlates the least strongly with the T1-T2 split, which is actually the longest split and the hardest part of the climb. That means is that the end result really favored riders who didn't give everything in the first 20 minutes of the climb and left something in the tank for the final 10 minutes.
Finally, Thomas wasted a chunk of time during his bike change, making his T1 split look slower than how hard he was actually pushing even in the first split.