Giro 2016 third week expectations

[SafeBet]

What do you think will happen?
I see some posters are very optimistic about the chances of entertainig stages. I am not.

Kruijswijk only needs to follow.
Chaves could be satisfied with a podium spot.
Nibali looked very bad at the end of the second week and Valverde, aiming at the podium, will probably just follow wheels and take advantage in case Nibali blows after an attack from afar.
Zak, Amador, Jungels, Siutsou and Fuglsang are happy with a top10 placement.
Uran and Pozzovivo too far back to even be a threat.
And Majka is Majka.

Astana and (to a lesser extent) Movistar have the numbers, but what can they realistically do?

 

[Red Rick]

Depends on how hard they'll try to win. *** could hit the fan really hard, but it may also be some half arsed attempts on the final climbs, easily followed by Kruijswijk

 

[Fernandez]

Giro is far from being over. I expect attacks from everywhere to Kruisbich, he will have to sweat blood to win this Giro.

 

[dick the quick]

What do you think will happen?

Kruijswijk, having no real support from his team in the high mountains, riding 100% defensively, responding only to the attacks of the Big Trio: Chaves, Nibali and Valverde.
Those three (Chaves/Nibbs/Valverde) attacking in a "1-2-3" mode either on the ultimate "real" climb of the day (Fai de Paganella on Tuesday, Pinerolo on Thursday) or from the very beginning of the stage (Friday/Saturday).
Majka and Zakarin following those three, figting for the podium, most probably without success.
Amador - I have no clue.
Pozzovivo and/or Uran trying to get a stage win at all cost.

 

[Climbing]

Looks unlikely that S.K. will be beaten by legs (unless he has an huge day off).
Could still be beaten by tactics though, like being isolated, long range attacks, etc. if someone has the balls for it…

 

[GP Blanco]

I am really hoping Kruijswijk will take it home. Of course Movistar and Astana have the stronger teams but they will also counter each other to fight for the minor podium spots plus other riders want to defend their own position.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Hoping for Kruiswijk, but it'll be tough. His team is crap, Nibali did not look very bad at the end of the second week (he was better than anyone bar Chaves and Kruiswijk on Saturday, and he would've finished within 1'30" on Sunday without the mechanical), and Valverde lost time but is still close enough to give LottoNL a fright if Movistar decide to pull out the big guns.

So yeah, Kruijswijk looks like the favourite, but it's not over by any means.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

Hoping for Kruiswijk, but it'll be tough. His team is crap, Nibali did not look very bad at the end of the second week (he was better than anyone bar Chaves and Kruiswijk on Saturday, and he would've finished within 1'30" on Sunday without the mechanical)

That time would still rank as the worst among all contenders.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

Hoping for Kruiswijk, but it'll be tough. His team is crap, Nibali did not look very bad at the end of the second week (he was better than anyone bar Chaves and Kruiswijk on Saturday, and he would've finished within 1'30" on Sunday without the mechanical)

That time would still rank as the worst among all contenders.

Sure, but in no way does it mean Nibali looked "very bad" at the end of the second week, especially with his solid performance the day before.

 

[DBotero]

I hope Kruijswijk will survive and win the damn thing.After 2 good weeks he deserve it.The Dutch had enough drama with Dumoulin last Vuelta and they need something to cheer about during the Euros

 

[Laplaz]

Valverde won't try anything... he is happy with the podium, and Chaves probably too.

 

[Winkin' boy]

What do you think will happen?

1. K-Weak will follow wheels.
2. Nibbles will pop a little after a serious attack.
3. Valverde will pop hard, because he's just not good enough this time.
4. Chavez will attack with K-Weak on his wheel and take a stage
5. Zakarin will fight against Majka.
6. Jungels will follow Valverde's wheel.
7. Amador will pop harder than Valverde.
8. Uran will crash and DNS next day.
9. Pozzovivo will take a stage.

Final GC:

1. Krujswijk
2. Chavez +1'40"
3. Nibbles +4'00"
4. Zakarin +4'25"
5. Majka +5'00"
6. Valverde +6'30"
7. Pozzovivo +7'00"
8. Jungels +8'00"
9. Amador +9'40"
10. Siutsou +11'00"

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Hoping for Kruiswijk, but it'll be tough. His team is crap, Nibali did not look very bad at the end of the second week (he was better than anyone bar Chaves and Kruiswijk on Saturday, and he would've finished within 1'30" on Sunday without the mechanical)

That time would still rank as the worst among all contenders.

Sure, but in no way does it mean Nibali looked "very bad" at the end of the second week, especially with his solid performance the day before.

Being the worst among all contenders and losing a minute and a half over a 10.8km climb isn't very bad?

 

[Anderis]

Re:

he would've finished within 1'30" on Sunday without the mechanical

I'm not sure if mechanical really cost him more than 40 seconds. I would estimate it more as around 20 seconds.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

Hoping for Kruiswijk, but it'll be tough. His team is crap, Nibali did not look very bad at the end of the second week (he was better than anyone bar Chaves and Kruiswijk on Saturday, and he would've finished within 1'30" on Sunday without the mechanical)

That time would still rank as the worst among all contenders.

Sure, but in no way does it mean Nibali looked "very bad" at the end of the second week, especially with his solid performance the day before.

Being the worst among all contenders and losing a minute and a half over a 10.8km climb isn't very bad?

And MTTs should be Nibbles bread and butter.

 

[jens_attacks]

Nibali and astana to go full alien
Aru's 2015 giro resurrection will be nothing compared to this

It's clear that nibali will try on mendola or agnello or bonette.

 

[Carols]

Head says Steve K. (sorry I can't spell that name), heart says Nibali. I voted with my heart

 

[ferryman]

If Astana and Movistar become bedfellows, it could be a very very tough week for Kruijswijk. I can see Chavez benefiting if they do and he plays it sensibly...

 

[Arredondo]

Kruijswijk with + 6 minutes

 

[MightyWheelSucker]

I do not think Chavez will attack. He should be content with his place and he will protect it against Nibali and the likes. He should react even faster then Kruijswijk on any such attack.
Crushweak will easily defend unless he will blow w/o particular reason.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

I do not think Chavez will attack. He should be content with his place and he will protect it against Nibali and the likes. He should react even faster then Kruijswijk on any such attack.
Crushweak will easily defend unless he will blow w/o particular reason.

Chaves has said they want to win the Giro. I'm thinking he will attack.

 

[BigMac]

Urán Urán, ODB. 8 minutes are nothing.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

Being the worst among all contenders and losing a minute and a half over a 10.8km climb isn't very bad?

It was bad, but not particularly so, especially when the previous day he put time into everyone bar Kruiswijk and Chaves.

By OP's standards, everyone except these two was "very bad".

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Being the worst among all contenders and losing a minute and a half over a 10.8km climb isn't very bad?

It was bad, but not particularly so, especially when the previous day he put time into everyone bar Kruiswijk and Chaves.

By OP's standards, everyone except these two was "very bad".

Not everyone is supposed to be the favourite for the Giro, and not everyone is supposed to be the best TTist of the favourites. Sure, a mountain TT is more about climbing and less about ability on the flat, but there were still flat sections too

 

[Miburo]

I hope Kruiswuijk can hold the door