Giro 2017 Field Discussion/Speculation

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

This is just an anglophone media thing. It was the same in 2006 with Hincapie. When push comes to shove, Landa will be Sky's man. Let's hope he can handle it.

what the hell does that even mean?

It means that the media need "our guy". English-speaking media are particularly concerned about this. It sells, and Sky know it. "Follow our G in his quest for the Giro crown" is more appealing than "Can this Basque feller get it together this year?" or "Quintana vs Nibali". Think back to 2006: "See Armstrong's friend take up the mantle" instead of "Will Basso finally win the Tour and the double?". And since then the hype has been around Evans (to a lesser extent), Armstrong 2.0 (for both Giro and Tour), and of course Wiggins ever since 2009, until Froome took over. "Johnny Foreigner" is not the preferred selling point for British Eurosport, Cyclingnews, Sky, BBC etc.

This is definitely true in my experience as well - everything is sold around a nationalist view point. I think perhaps it is a culture thing in UK and Australia that people are more interested in winning and national self esteem than the actual racing. The same reason why there is such a great interest in track racing in the UK, despite it being rubbish to watch compared with road and that no othe countries really care about it.

Another thing, is for the English speaking media it's all about the GTs (mostly the Tour de France). This is why I think Thomas is on this ridiculous mission to try to challenge for a GC. Very few people in the UK cared that for a few weeks in 2015 he was the best cobbled rider in the world, and that he could be a genuine challenger for the biggest one day races. Instead, he's best known for an Olympic gold and for being one of Froome's better helpers. If he wants to make it really big in the public conscience he needs to do something in a GT, not win RVV.

 

[staubsauger]

That's hardly an UK only behavior like suggested. In fact I truly believe that Germany and UK are pretty equal in that mentality!

 

[DFA123]

Re:

That's hardly an UK only behavior like suggested. In fact I truly believe that Germany and UK are pretty equal in that mentality!

I'll take your word for it; can't speak German so don't really know how their media is, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are just as bad. I guess it's in countries where cycling is traditionally a minor sport and that don't host any big races themselves. It's all about personalities rather than the racing itself.

 

[staubsauger]

In Germany it's basically always about the Germans in every sport. No matter whether it's soccer, cycling, ski jumping, formula 1 etc. Especially the coverage of the public service broadcasting corporations. RTL ain't much better at all tbh.

Eurosport provides more general coverage. Not only in cycling. That's why I guess most passionists prefer to watch their favorite sport on Eurosport with true experts commentating as well.

 

[PlanZ]

Re:

In Germany it's basically always about the Germans in every sport. No matter whether it's soccer, cycling, ski jumping, formula 1 etc. Especially the coverage of the public service broadcasting corporations. RTL ain't much better at all tbh.

Eurosport provides more general coverage. Not only in cycling. That's why I guess most passionists prefer to watch their favorite sport on Eurosport with true experts commentating as well.

Indeed. I've often experienced coverage of a particular sports event being pulled whenever the German competitors are eliminated. And I saw virtually none of the UK's olympics successes due to German prowess in disciplines such as table tennis.
But why shouldn't German or any nation's broadcasters focus on their own athletes? Seems only natural.
Thankfully German Eurosport has two of the best cycling commentators in the business in Karsten Migels and Jean-Claude Leclercq. They are a joy to listen to.

 

[kingjr]

Almost every person I've ever come across says that about his own countries media coverage "Oh in my country X they only care about X athletes". Maybe it's just that a sport such as pro cycling is so small that only very few people get into it enough to become interested about athletes from other countries. For those (us) it is indeed pretty f*cking annoying, but it's not a UK thing, IMO.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

In Germany it's basically always about the Germans in every sport. No matter whether it's soccer, cycling, ski jumping, formula 1 etc. Especially the coverage of the public service broadcasting corporations. RTL ain't much better at all tbh.

Eurosport provides more general coverage. Not only in cycling. That's why I guess most passionists prefer to watch their favorite sport on Eurosport with true experts commentating as well.

Indeed. I've often experienced coverage of a particular sports event being pulled whenever the German competitors are eliminated. And I saw virtually none of the UK's olympics successes due to German prowess in disciplines such as table tennis.
But why shouldn't German or any nation's broadcasters focus on their own athletes? Seems only natural.
Thankfully German Eurosport has two of the best cycling commentators in the business in Karsten Migels and Jean-Claude Leclercq. They are a joy to listen to.

Tribalism may be 'natural', but that doesn't mean it isn't bad.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Almost every person I've ever come across says that about his own countries media coverage "Oh in my country X they only care about X athletes". Maybe it's just that a sport such as pro cycling is so small that only very few people get into it enough to become interested about athletes from other countries. For those (us) it is indeed pretty f*cking annoying, but it's not a UK thing, IMO.

Perhaps it is true for a lot of countries, but I think in most of Western Europe at least, people and therefore the media follow and report on cycling because they like cycling. Rather than because they want to celebrate some national success. Whereas in UK - and Germany from what you're saying - people's experience of cycling seems shaped by their nation's riders rather than the sport itself. Could be due to the sport's relative minority status in those countries, or more of a cultural thing.

And, to kind of bring it back on topic, I think Thomas is a victim of this, because a lot of the public seem to think that cycling is all about the GTs. He just wasn't getting anywhere near the national coverage he deserved from being one of the top classics riders in the world. The media attention instead was on track cyclists and a Tour de France stage winning sprinter. Despite the fact, imo, Thomas's one day form in spring 2015 and winning E3 was a bigger achivement than either. Now he's given that up chasing something that he's never going to win.

 

[Mr.White]

And Sky wonder why they're so hated. Thanks to them we have two ruined riders

Thing is--using their logic--if Thomas can win because of the big TTs then what about Dumoulin? He'll destroy Thomas on both time trials, plus he climbs much better.

He climbs much better than who? Thomas? I don't think so...

 

[staubsauger]

Thomas was stronger at the Rettenbachferner in 2015. But he was further down in his development into a climber as well back then.

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

And Sky wonder why they're so hated. Thanks to them we have two ruined riders

Thing is--using their logic--if Thomas can win because of the big TTs then what about Dumoulin? He'll destroy Thomas on both time trials, plus he climbs much better.

He climbs much better than who? Thomas? I don't think so...

They ruined more than two riders, remeber Edmondson or Peters?

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Thomas was stronger at the Rettenbachferner in 2015. But he was further down in his development as a climber as well back then.

Yes, but make no mistake, 2015 TdF Thomas was scary strong, protecting Froome on the cobbles, flat and hilly stages and he still was 4th on gc until stage 19 happened. That version of Thomas was scary, he wasted a ton of energy by protecting Froome on these stages and was still super strong in the mountains, his performance on the Plateau de Beille stage was really impressive.

 

[Jolene]

And Sky wonder why they're so hated. Thanks to them we have two ruined riders

Thing is--using their logic--if Thomas can win because of the big TTs then what about Dumoulin? He'll destroy Thomas on both time trials, plus he climbs much better.

He climbs much better than who? Thomas? I don't think so...

Last time I looked I didn't see any Henao-type helper dragging Dumoulin up Andorra or that stage in the Vuelta where he nipped Froome.

 

[DFA123]

I'm not sure it really matters who is a slightly better climber between Dumoulin and Thomas. Ulitmately, neither of them have any chance of winning a GT when Nibali and Quintana line up at the start. Dumoulin has had his one shot: a perfect course for him, with tentative racing waiting for last km attacks allowing the TT to take on more importance, and a weak or tired field. Plus he had the element of surprise and went under the radar for much of the race. Yet when the other climbers actually decided to finally race a mountain stage for more than the last couple of kms he lost huge amounts of time and dropped like a stone on the overall GC.

Thomas is a simlar style. He can hang on when the pace is steady and limit his losses when the favourites play cat and mouse and wait until really late on the climb. But, like Dumoulin, he has no chance if proper climbers go hard from a long way out.

If they are both not out of contention by Etna, they certainly will be minutes down after Blockhaus. No way they can hang with Quintana or Nibali when they go from distance on a climb like that, which one of them most probably will. Then comes the last week, where they would both be lucky to hold on to a top 10 overall. This really is not the route for riders like Thomas and Dumoulin.

 

[Ikbengodniet]

You really can't compare the climbing of Dumoulin from last years with his possible ability in the upcoming Giro. It will be the first time he is solely training for one GT with proper altitude camps and significant weight loss. I'm really curious where he will stand.

 

[Mr.White]

And Sky wonder why they're so hated. Thanks to them we have two ruined riders

Thing is--using their logic--if Thomas can win because of the big TTs then what about Dumoulin? He'll destroy Thomas on both time trials, plus he climbs much better.

He climbs much better than who? Thomas? I don't think so...

Last time I looked I didn't see any Henao-type helper dragging Dumoulin up Andorra or that stage in the Vuelta where he nipped Froome.

Well take a look than at 2015 Tour, and the way Thomas climbed there. I think Dumoulin never reached that level.
I'm not saying Thomas is some great climber, not at all, I don't think that. I just think he's slightly better climber than Dumoulin.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Thomas may be slightly over rated as a GT GC contender for what he has done thus far, but he can't seriously be compared to Hincapie.

 

[StryderHells]

Re:

Thomas may be slightly over rated as a GT GC contender for what he has done thus far, but he can't seriously be compared to Hincapie.

I don't think anyone here was seriously comparing Thomas to Hincapie but was more referencing that the Anglo media hyped Hincapie much like they are currently hyping Thomas and that the hype is unwarranted. On a side note while I think Thomas is better at stage racing than big George was I did notice that Hincapie at this stage has achieved a higher placing at a GT than Thomas

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Thomas may be slightly over rated as a GT GC contender for what he has done thus far, but he can't seriously be compared to Hincapie.

Why not? They're extremely similar riders. Both are basically very good cobbled classics riders who lack the final punch to really turn good performances into wins. They both have done some great domestique work for the dominant GT rider of his generation and both have finished top 15 in the Tour, without every remotely looking capable of winning. Both are very strong at pursuiting/short time trials and are a bit too heavy to compete with the best on longer climbs.

The only difference could be that Thomas will get a leadership role at the Giro (at least for four days or however long it takes for him to be out of contention) at the age of 30. Whereas Hincapie didn't get leadership until he was a bit older - blew it, and then went back to being a domestique for Contador.

I think its a great comparison. And am sure that Sky realise this as well. They've seen the parcours and must know that after Blockhaus it will be clear to the public that Landa is the man to back; by that stage they'll already have been drawn in to watching by the hope of seeing Thomas ride to a British victory.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

Thomas may be slightly over rated as a GT GC contender for what he has done thus far, but he can't seriously be compared to Hincapie.

Why not? They're extremely similar riders. Both are basically very good cobbled classics riders who lack the final punch to really turn good performances into wins. They both have done some great domestique work for the dominant GT rider of his generation and both have finished top 15 in the Tour, without every remotely looking capable of winning. Both are very strong at pursuiting/short time trials and are a bit too heavy to compete with the best on longer climbs.

The only difference could be that Thomas will get a leadership role at the Giro (at least for four days or however long it takes for him to be out of contention) at the age of 30. Whereas Hincapie didn't get leadership until he was a bit older - blew it, and then went back to being a domestique for Contador.

I think its a great comparison. And am sure that Sky realise this as well. They've seen the parcours and must know that after Blockhaus it will be clear to the public that Landa is the man to back; by that stage they'll already have been drawn in to watching by the hope of seeing Thomas ride to a British victory.

You are more than entitled to your opinion, but I disagree in regards to their GT GC potential.

Both have done some great domestique work for the dominant GT rider of their generation, though so did Roberto Heras and Jens Voigt (except that he didn't ride for the dominant GT rider).

I may well be wrong, but from what I can remember, Big George was never the last man standing in regards to support of Armstrong in the high mountains. He'd do the heavy work on the flat leading into the final climb, then pull off to the side. Then it would be guys like Popovic, Azevedo and Heras who would split up the main group, often until there were somewhat embarressingly less than ten riders (or even less than five) left as the heads of state. By which time Big George was catching his breath a couple of kms back down the mountain.

Thomas hasn't done what Azevedo and Heras did for Armstrong, as yet for Froome. But I believe that his work has been much more comparable to the work of those riders, then to someone like Voigt, to whom Hincapie as a GT domestique on mountain stages could compare. Hincapie could never be with that pack as Thomas was on PDB imo. Nor could he dare to dream of defeating Alberto Contador in Paris-Nice (even with the removal of a MTF) imo.

In 2015 Thomas remained high up in GC for a large portion of the race (before having a Portesque like horrible day). Hincapie never was high in the GC past even one GC relevant mountain stage, again if my memory serves me correctly.

I might be quite biased against Hincapie though. It irked me the way that Liggett and Sherwen kept going on about "Big George" as if he was the greatest thing since Lance Armstrong

 

[jens_attacks]

It's simple, really. Thomas can go at 6 w/kg for 40 minutes on a mountain. Hincapie couldn't.
G can top 5 the giro if his body will recover and won't have a bad day in the last week.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

It's simple, really. Thomas can go at 6 w/kg for 40 minutes on a mountain. Hincapie couldn't.
G can top 5 the giro if his body will recover and won't have a bad day in the last week.

Are you sure about that? We'll never know because at his peak he was riding at 6.5w/kg+ on the bottom half of climbs to pace his infamous leader. Considering the era which Hincapie rode in, I'd be amazed if he couldn't have done 6w/kg for 40 mins.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Jens must know his w/kg on Pla d' Adet in 2005?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Thomas may be slightly over rated as a GT GC contender for what he has done thus far, but he can't seriously be compared to Hincapie.

Why not? They're extremely similar riders. Both are basically very good cobbled classics riders who lack the final punch to really turn good performances into wins. They both have done some great domestique work for the dominant GT rider of his generation and both have finished top 15 in the Tour, without every remotely looking capable of winning. Both are very strong at pursuiting/short time trials and are a bit too heavy to compete with the best on longer climbs.

The only difference could be that Thomas will get a leadership role at the Giro (at least for four days or however long it takes for him to be out of contention) at the age of 30. Whereas Hincapie didn't get leadership until he was a bit older - blew it, and then went back to being a domestique for Contador.

I think its a great comparison. And am sure that Sky realise this as well. They've seen the parcours and must know that after Blockhaus it will be clear to the public that Landa is the man to back; by that stage they'll already have been drawn in to watching by the hope of seeing Thomas ride to a British victory.

You are more than entitled to your opinion, but I disagree in regards to their GT GC potential.

Both have done some great domestique work for the dominant GT rider of their generation, though so did Roberto Heras and Jens Voigt (except that he didn't ride for the dominant GT rider).

I may well be wrong, but from what I can remember, Big George was never the last man standing in regards to support of Armstrong in the high mountains. He'd do the heavy work on the flat leading into the final climb, then pull off to the side. Then it would be guys like Popovic, Azevedo and Heras who would split up the main group, often until there were somewhat embarressingly less than ten riders (or even less than five) left as the heads of state. By which time Big George was catching his breath a couple of kms back down the mountain.

Thomas hasn't done what Azevedo and Heras did for Armstrong, as yet for Froome. But I believe that his work has been much more comparable to the work of those riders, then to someone like Voigt, to whom Hincapie as a GT domestique on mountain stages could compare. Hincapie could never be with that pack as Thomas was on PDB imo. Nor could he dare to dream of defeating Alberto Contador in Paris-Nice (even with the removal of a MTF) imo.

In 2015 Thomas remained high up in GC for a large portion of the race (before having a Portesque like horrible day). Hincapie never was high in the GC past even one GC relevant mountain stage, again if my memory serves me correctly.

I might be quite biased against Hincapie though. It irked me the way that Liggett and Sherwen kept going on about "Big George" as if he was the greatest thing since Lance Armstrong

This should very much be the default position - they were quitre insufferable.

We'll see with regards to Thomas I guess. I don't think he has any more GC potential than Hincapie did; he's just getting better opportunities. Paris-Nice is certainly a good counter-point, but I'm not convinced he was even the strongest rider in his own team that race.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Jens must know his w/kg on Pla d' Adet in 2005?

Pla d'Adet 2005:10,3 km@8,3%
---30:34---average speed 20.22 km/h(Basso-Armstrong)
---30:58---average speed 19.96 km/h(Rasmussen-Mancebo)
---31:58---average speed 19.33 km/h(Jan Ullrich)
---31:59---average speed 19.32 km/h(Alexander Vinokourov)
---32:20---average speed 19.11 km/h(Levi Leipheimer)
---32:40---average speed 18.92 km/h(Christophe Moreau)
---33:00---average speed 18.73 km/h(George Hincapie)

http://www.climbing-records.com/2014/07/climbing-times-on-pla-dadet-from.html

It's ~5.5W/kg