Giro 2017, stage 18: Moena - Ortisei 137 km

[Red Rick]

Anyway, coverage from the start?

 

[Ricco']

Re:

Anyway, coverage from the start?

Yes, unless you have Eurosport, where you'll miss the first 5 minutes to listen to random interviews.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

It's a holiday in Austria tomorrow. Gigs is also in Austria.
You've got something better to do tomorrow, right Gigs?

Well actually I currently have a one month long "holiday" which is actually a one month long pause between my written and oral final school exams. Thats the main reason why so far I could watch almost every stage of this giro.

The holiday is the reason why I'm driving home, I still don't know if I'll be there on the Valparola tomorrow, but stage 19 starts in my hometown and that's just awesome.

 

[hfer07]

Landa to conquer the majority of Mountain passes in order to secure the Maglia Azzura- other than that is all up for grabs

 

[The Barb]

With a hat tip to Revenge of the Nerds ...

Landa Landa Landa.

 

[Velolover2]

1. Landa (from break)

2. Nibali
3. Another rider from the break

4. Rest of the GC group w. Dumoulin and Quintana (+ two other top 10 riders)

 

[AlexNYC]

Nairo and Nibali to do their thing.

 

[Robert5091]

Yates and Jungels to attack early. Zakarin to join in to take 4th place. Nibs to attempt to follow Landa's KOM assault. Tom D to just keep pink.

 

[Ruby United]

Do you think that Nibali thinks he will get the 3 minutes with just on Pontives, Piancavallo and Grappa-Foza climbs?
He needs 2 minutes on Dumo before the final TT to be safe against him and Piancavallo stage doesn't suit Nibali. Actually Dumo can even gain time on Piancavallo.
I think Nibali will try something early if he manages to send 1-2 teammates into the breakaway.

I think everyone is underrating both stage 20 and how much expending energy fruitlessly can end up costing a GC contender. If Nibali/Quintana need minutes they'll look for them up Grappa.

Completely disagree. Stage 20 is weak; Grappa is light, relatively low gradients, especially compared to the steep side. The first half of the descent is moderate, not too difficult. Then there is 13km flat in between. Only Nibali can theoretically make significant time by the bottom of the Grappa and Dumoulin will simply reel him back in. Foza isn't particularly difficult, a nice steady gradient which Dumoulin will enjoy. Then there is another nice 15km rolling flat.
It is an easy stage and actually perfectly suited for Dumoulin, more than any other contender. I think he will coast it. Only an ultra-strong Nibs or Quintana, significantly stronger than what we have seen so far, can really threaten Dumoulin, and that simply won't happen.
Tomorrow will tell all. If Nibali or Quintana want this race, they have to go all out.

 

[GraftPunk]

Tom D. To be isolated quickly and done/dusted. Hopefully it will be close enough to keep it exciting till the TT though.

 

[Iker_Baqueiro]

Dumolin to give a good surprise.

 

[meat puppet]

Re:

If the data shows short stages give us entertaining riding, we should embrace them. The length of a stage isn't a virtue in its own right

Yes and no.

Guess it depends on how one defines entertaining racing, the prime division being slow burner races vs action packed stages. I appreciate both. A slow burning stage race can be entertaining via a battle of attrition even if individual stages contain few fireworks. Then again, a gt with no fireworks stages can become dull.

On balance I tend to think that stage length is a virtue as such, as it induces fatigue and enhances the probability of riders seriously cracking. Or crapping for that matter.

 

[dacooley]

nairo's superior recovery should finally come to the fore. otherwise i don't know how nibali and quitana are going to prevent dimoulin from winning the race.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Pinot will crack big time today.

 

[glassmoon]

climbed Pordoi few years back in heavy late summer rain. it is really nice climb and the coffee+cake at the top was truly a lifesaver. props to the miss in the cafeteria for not throwing us out for being soaked to the bones

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Pinot will crack big time today.

I think there will be no shortage of cracking, even the top 10 might have a shake up of sorts but of course it's the top three that people are most interested in. The days when the sprinters would prefer to stay in bed or hope for a snowstorm !

 

[Climbing]

I fear the gaps might be minimal, unless someone has the balls to attack from far out.
I see a lot of tired faces.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think that this is the most well designed stage of this Giro and the most likely to create havoc. However, I fear that that won't happen. Quintana is obviously not gonna do anything until the last climb, so we're basically looking at Nibali to try something. I wouldn't rule that out though, although his team isn't that good.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I think that this is the most well designed stage of this Giro and the most likely to create havoc. However, I fear that that won't happen. Quintana is obviously not gonna do anything until the last climb, so we're basically looking at Nibali to try something. I wouldn't rule that out though, although his team isn't that good.

Having a dolomites stage where action is completely 100% dependent on GC circumstances isn't a well designed stage.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

I think that this is the most well designed stage of this Giro and the most likely to create havoc. However, I fear that that won't happen. Quintana is obviously not gonna do anything until the last climb, so we're basically looking at Nibali to try something. I wouldn't rule that out though, although his team isn't that good.

Having a dolomites stage where action is completely 100% dependent on GC circumstances isn't a well designed stage.

I'm not sure I follow. How is this stage more dependent on the GC than other stages?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I think that this is the most well designed stage of this Giro and the most likely to create havoc. However, I fear that that won't happen. Quintana is obviously not gonna do anything until the last climb, so we're basically looking at Nibali to try something. I wouldn't rule that out though, although his team isn't that good.

Having a dolomites stage where action is completely 100% dependent on GC circumstances isn't a well designed stage.

I'm not sure I follow. How is this stage more dependent on the GC than other stages?

In most GC situations we'd have now it would be nothing until the final climb. But now we have a GC leader with at a huge team disadvantage, and he's not the dominant climber. If two equal climbers would go at it at this stage, they'd be locked in wheels until the last km's of Pontives.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

I think that this is the most well designed stage of this Giro and the most likely to create havoc. However, I fear that that won't happen. Quintana is obviously not gonna do anything until the last climb, so we're basically looking at Nibali to try something. I wouldn't rule that out though, although his team isn't that good.

Having a dolomites stage where action is completely 100% dependent on GC circumstances isn't a well designed stage.

I'm not sure I follow. How is this stage more dependent on the GC than other stages?

In most GC situations we'd have now it would be nothing until the final climb. But now we have a GC leader with at a huge team disadvantage, and he's not the dominant climber. If two equal climbers would go at it at this stage, they'd be locked in wheels until the last km's of Pontives.

So how would you design a stage in which two equal climbers would "go at it" far from the finish? I think this is well designed because the last climb isn't very hard and unlikely to create meaningful gaps, but you can definitely do that if you open up the race from afar.

 

[huge]

My 2 cents.
Movistar and BM to set a super high tempo on the first 2 climbs, trying to isolate TD.
I then expect GC guys to attack on the Passo Gardena (climb #3) if the main group is small enough. Or passo di Pinei otherwise. Not later than that.
Everybody knows by now that attacking TD on the last climb could be from pointless to disastrous (see Oropa!), even though today it's a super hard day all the way.

Attacking on Passo Gardena is very risky though, as there are 18km of descent before the next climb.
A solo attack would never work. The only chance is for a small group of 3/4 riders to get away from TD (which I don't think is possible. He is too strong) and then collaborate, or to have guys up ahead on the road waiting to help.
This second option means they need to leave a break go early. And in order to do so, initially they cannot set a too high tempo, which on the other hand would leave TD with more teammates than desidarable.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I think that this is the most well designed stage of this Giro and the most likely to create havoc. However, I fear that that won't happen. Quintana is obviously not gonna do anything until the last climb, so we're basically looking at Nibali to try something. I wouldn't rule that out though, although his team isn't that good.

Having a dolomites stage where action is completely 100% dependent on GC circumstances isn't a well designed stage.

I'm not sure I follow. How is this stage more dependent on the GC than other stages?

In most GC situations we'd have now it would be nothing until the final climb. But now we have a GC leader with at a huge team disadvantage, and he's not the dominant climber. If two equal climbers would go at it at this stage, they'd be locked in wheels until the last km's of Pontives.

So how would you design a stage in which two equal climbers would "go at it" far from the finish? I think this is well designed because the last climb isn't very hard and unlikely to create meaningful gaps, but you can definitely do that if you open up the race from afar.

Use climbs harder than the Pordoi at the start. Either I take San Pellegrino+Fedaia+Pordoi to start with, then skip Valparola and Gardena by going over the Passo Sella.

Or you take a detour between the Pordoi and the Valparola and cram in the Passo Giau.

Or, if you really want to make a mess out of it and don't mind a longer stage, San Pellegrino, go all the way south to Agordo, then Duran+Staulanza+Giau>Valparola>Gardena and finish in Ortisei without going down for the Pinei and Pontives. That would be my preference. 6 climbs, which 5 are non-stop, with the hardest being the first and the third one.

Or, for the advanced option, start a crowdfunding campaign to have Libertine Seguros design the stage.

 

[Ataraxus]

Tom D. should send both Geschke and Tem Dam in the break.