Looking back at the Vuelta he lost backs it up. Dumoulin limited the damage pretty well on the steep stuff. Then got slaughtered at a non-steep climb near the end of the Vuelta.
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But Yates is the big, big favorite. He reminds me a be of 2012-Purito but with a better team. He is the best climber AND the most explosive. He is gonna be nearly impossible to drop.
They have to ambush him somehow. But it's unlikely to happen on Zoncolan.
They have to ambush him somehow. But it's unlikely to happen on Zoncolan.
I'm with the Dumoulin optimists here. As I've said earlier, weight doesn't matter that much on the Zonc.
Just look at this:
1. BASSO Ivan 6h21'58" 70 kg
2. EVANS Cadel 01'19" 64 kg
3. SCARPONI Michele 01'30" 63 kg
4. CUNEGO Damiano 01'58" 58 kg
5. VINOKOUROV Alexandre 02'26" 69 kg
6. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos 02'44" 60 kg
7. NIBALI Vincenzo 03'07" 65 kg
8. PINOTTI Marco 03'20" 67 kg
9. MARTIN Daniel 03'31" 59 kg
10. GADRET John 03'46" 58 kg
Being able to grind it out has got a lot to do with it. Just look at Basso, Evans and Pinotti. And Dumoulin is the best at it from the current bunch. I wouldn't be completely shocked if he wins it.
But I can see Lopez destroying this climb. Aru could be solid, too. And Ciccone might win from a breakaway. I don't believe this is a climb for Yates. If he does well here, he truly has stepped up.
As for Dumoulin, I think he'll handle the Zonc just fine. If there's a place he could really crack, it's stage 20.
Just look at this:
1. BASSO Ivan 6h21'58" 70 kg
2. EVANS Cadel 01'19" 64 kg
3. SCARPONI Michele 01'30" 63 kg
4. CUNEGO Damiano 01'58" 58 kg
5. VINOKOUROV Alexandre 02'26" 69 kg
6. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos 02'44" 60 kg
7. NIBALI Vincenzo 03'07" 65 kg
8. PINOTTI Marco 03'20" 67 kg
9. MARTIN Daniel 03'31" 59 kg
10. GADRET John 03'46" 58 kg
Being able to grind it out has got a lot to do with it. Just look at Basso, Evans and Pinotti. And Dumoulin is the best at it from the current bunch. I wouldn't be completely shocked if he wins it.
But I can see Lopez destroying this climb. Aru could be solid, too. And Ciccone might win from a breakaway. I don't believe this is a climb for Yates. If he does well here, he truly has stepped up.
As for Dumoulin, I think he'll handle the Zonc just fine. If there's a place he could really crack, it's stage 20.
Betancur for the win and put two minutes on everyone. The forum to explode next!
Or
Dumo for the win. Equally the forum will explode.
Or
Dumo for the win. Equally the forum will explode.
Re:
Limited damage on steep stuff cause everyone waited for the final km. Then got wrecked when they attacked at 50km to go. He was consistently in the bottom end of the top 10 of GC climbing wise on the big mountain stages.Dekker_Tifosi said:
Re:
He is great in rolling hills with shallow gradients AND super-steep hills but those in-between gradients is like kryptonite for him.
A 6-7% climb is properly the worst for Dumo.Dekker_Tifosi said:
He is great in rolling hills with shallow gradients AND super-steep hills but those in-between gradients is like kryptonite for him.
Re:
I think Pozzovivo's primary problem in this race has been that the MTFs haven't been tough enough. On Etna he looked like the strongest and made a lot of attacks but couldn't get away. That day, Yates was cruising and after having shadowed everybody he distanced them easily.
On Montevergine di Mercogliano Pozzovivo again looked very strong (and he has been positioning himself excellently throughout the race) but the finale was simply too explosive for him despite his newfound sprinting abilities.
On Gran Sasso, he was again positioned extremely well and seemed to be biding his time. He was actually riding very defensively and smartly until 700 metres from the finish where he took the bull by the horns and tried to ride the others out of his wheel. But it was too short, and there was too much headwind so he was blown past in the finish.
But he has also been riding very well in Altagirone, Santa Ninfa and Osimo which I think was quite impressive for a normally regular mountain guy like himself. This backs up your point (that he thrives in the chaotic finishes), but I don't think history backs it up that this should be his primary forté. So I am very much looking forward to seeing him on a real climb after a tough stage tomorrow.
Of course there is a risk that he may have peaked a bit too soon and he may be about to decline but I am giving him the benefit of the doubt and backing him for tomorrow.
Red Rick said:
I think Pozzovivo's primary problem in this race has been that the MTFs haven't been tough enough. On Etna he looked like the strongest and made a lot of attacks but couldn't get away. That day, Yates was cruising and after having shadowed everybody he distanced them easily.
On Montevergine di Mercogliano Pozzovivo again looked very strong (and he has been positioning himself excellently throughout the race) but the finale was simply too explosive for him despite his newfound sprinting abilities.
On Gran Sasso, he was again positioned extremely well and seemed to be biding his time. He was actually riding very defensively and smartly until 700 metres from the finish where he took the bull by the horns and tried to ride the others out of his wheel. But it was too short, and there was too much headwind so he was blown past in the finish.
But he has also been riding very well in Altagirone, Santa Ninfa and Osimo which I think was quite impressive for a normally regular mountain guy like himself. This backs up your point (that he thrives in the chaotic finishes), but I don't think history backs it up that this should be his primary forté. So I am very much looking forward to seeing him on a real climb after a tough stage tomorrow.
Of course there is a risk that he may have peaked a bit too soon and he may be about to decline but I am giving him the benefit of the doubt and backing him for tomorrow.
Re: Re:
He was still bottom of top 10 of the GC men in the stage he got slaughtered. Always between 8-12 from GC men back then. It wasn't like he got worse (worse, relative to other GC men that is)Red Rick said:
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Oh, and I forgot to mention: Carapaz should be absolutely monstrous on this climb!Squire said:
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But back then, he didn't have any team support and I was already impressed he *almost* won it, without actually preparing as a gc contender.
Dekker_Tifosi said:
But back then, he didn't have any team support and I was already impressed he *almost* won it, without actually preparing as a gc contender.
Re: Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186
Pozzovivo once won a Trentino stage on Punta Veleno, a climb a lot like Zoncolan. To be fair, it wasn't against the best of competitions, but it was still a decent field and it was in a very impressive manner. I also don't think the climb suits him perfectly but I don't think it's bad for him either.
Pozzovivo once won a Trentino stage on Punta Veleno, a climb a lot like Zoncolan. To be fair, it wasn't against the best of competitions, but it was still a decent field and it was in a very impressive manner. I also don't think the climb suits him perfectly but I don't think it's bad for him either.
@Squire: Dumoulin currently is 69kg.
edit: Carapaz is a good call. I don't fancy Pozzo's chances much. Yates is the obvious favorite.
edit: Carapaz is a good call. I don't fancy Pozzo's chances much. Yates is the obvious favorite.
Will Chaves survive tomorrow? Today he finished dead last, on his own 15 minutes down. I think he's plain ill.
Re: Re:
But if you look at how the mtf's were ridden back then you'll see that most of the time the big mtf's were ridden rather conservatively with attacks only on the last one or two kilometers. In other words, exactly the way Dumoulin was also dropped on Gran Sasso last weekend. The steepest mtf of that Vuelta was Ermita de Alba and there Dumoulin was looking absolutely superb until the attacks started close to the finish. The thing is that usually super steep climbs are less likely to be ridden like that than 6-7% climbs, which in the case of the Zonc could be very good for Dumoulin.Dekker_Tifosi said:
I think the one defining trait of Dumoulin uphill is that he doesn't really have a low bottom of power he puts out. Ergo, he doesn't mind irregular climbs that much, but he minds irregular climbing, and 6-8% climbs facilitate that most, cause that's where the inefficiency of interval climbing isn't that punishing.
Re: Giro 2018 stage 14:S.Vito Tagliamento-Monte Zoncolan 186
Thing is though, Dumoulin won't go over his limit on the climb like Evans did. He'll just ride his own tempo, like Basso, and not try to follow anyone's wheel too much. I feel if the climb is ridden in robobasso style then it's Yates who will suffer.Tonton said:
The top 10 on the stage could be the same as the current GC just without Dennis. I'd be very, very surprised if he finish in top 15. I don't think Dennis will ever be a Dumoulin or Roglic type of guy.
I expect a close duel between Yates and Dumoulin but Yates will drop him in the last k. He will gain a lot in the last k. 26 secs + bonus.
Pinot and Pozzo wil work together and finish 3rd and 4th, 50 secs down on Yates.
Then Carapaz, Lopez and Bennett between a 1 minute and 2 minutes down. And then the rest at 2 minutes +.
I expect a close duel between Yates and Dumoulin but Yates will drop him in the last k. He will gain a lot in the last k. 26 secs + bonus.
Pinot and Pozzo wil work together and finish 3rd and 4th, 50 secs down on Yates.
Then Carapaz, Lopez and Bennett between a 1 minute and 2 minutes down. And then the rest at 2 minutes +.
Here we go, reality check is coming!
Pozzo for the stage, unless a break makes it.
Dumo struggling.
Though I don't expect big gaps.
Pozzo for the stage, unless a break makes it.
Dumo struggling.
Though I don't expect big gaps.
No one mentioned Aru yet. He has to gain time tomorrow altough i don't think he will be with the best at the end. Froome neither.
I am curious to see what Carapaz, Betancur and Formolo can do.
I am curious to see what Carapaz, Betancur and Formolo can do.
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