Giro 2018 stage 18: Abbiategrasso – Prato Nevoso 196 km

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Terrible stage design.

Suchlike stages are needed too. 21 perfectly designed stages would've been boring.

What?

Anyway, it's a pretty decent design, until you realise it's not stage 3 of the Vuelta.

 

[May0maniac]

It's the first of 3 consecutive mountain stages and it's not too short, in the grand scheme of things it's ok and if there's one thing that this Giro got right it's placing the stages in the right order.
This has been a really hard Giro, today we had a hard stage with an average speed of 46.5 km/h, I have the feeling that 2 or 3 guys in the top 10 will crack on those final stages, probably just those who aren't really proven gc riders, but you never know.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Terrible stage design.

Suchlike stages are needed too. 21 perfectly designed stages would've been boring.

What?

Anyway, it's a pretty decent design, until you realise it's not stage 3 of the Vuelta.

:lol:

 

[Serpentin]

Re: Giro 2018 stage18: Abbiategrasso – Prato Nevoso 196 km

Oomen to put the hurt on and then Dumoulin doing a replay of Oropa last year..... Would be great. But probably a sprint between 15 people. Hope someone has the balls to go deep early

 

[Durden93]

Dumoulin should try an attack here. It’s unlikely he’ll gain much time but he needs whatever he can get. Hopefully someobe can make the race hard and break things up.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Giro 2018 stage18: Abbiategrasso – Prato Nevoso 196 km

Imagine Yates loses just five seconds to the other gc contenders tomorrow. Can you imagine what an impact that would have on stage 19 and 20. Man I'd love to see that

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Giro 2018 stage18: Abbiategrasso – Prato Nevoso 196 km

Imagine Yates loses just five seconds to the other gc contenders tomorrow. Can you imagine what an impact that would have on stage 19 and 20. Man I'd love to see that

What if he doesn't lose any time?

 

[Stella0596]

Yates losing some time would be great for the race! Probably not gonna happen though.

 

[Laplaz]

MAL will try something for sure. Froome too if he feels good.

 

[Sestriere]

I'm interested in how the fight for the mountain classification is going to develeop over the next three stages. So far, all mountain stages have been won by GC riders hence they are strongly represented in the current ranking:

1 YATES Simon 91
2 CICCONE Giulio 52
3 CHAVES Johan Esteban 47
4 PINOT Thibaut 46
5 FROOME Christopher 36
6 POZZOVIVO Domenico 36
7 MASNADA Fausto 35
8 CONTI Valerio 33
9 MONTAGUTI Matteo 29
10 CARAPAZ Richard 27

This is of course helped by the fact that pretty much all of this year's mountain stages finish on top of one. This won't change but at least stages 19 and 20 offer opportunities to win points before the final climb. Maximum points available:

Stage 18: 38, 35 of which on finishing climb
Stage 19: 102, 35 on finishing climb
Stage 20: 105, 35 on finishing climb
=>Overall: 245, 105

So there's enough points to make underway to still fight for Blu even if you fail to score high at the finishes. Nevertheless, theis competition will be highly dependend on whether the current trend of the break not making it continues. At least on one of the stages I would expect a large break to win.
So far, only Ciccone and Masnada caught my eye with their attempts to score KOM points, however, with so many points still available, others could still join the fun (could Chaves be allowed?). Good legs will be necessary though, as you will have to be on the march on two big mountain stages in a row. Thus, I could see the jersey to be won by Yates on the go.

 

[GraftPunk]

I'll ask my usual question when see long flat stages... Any chance of wind or rain?

 

[Robert5091]

So how's TommyD gonna get 56 seconds on Yatesy? The Sky train could drag Dumo along - if Dawg's going for Pozzo's 3rd spot.

 

[blaxland]

Mitchelton Scott to get Chavez or Haig into the breakaway and steal the win...

 

[staubsauger]

The blue jersey fight is between Ciccone and Aru IMHO. Which means both must fight very hard to get the maximum points on Finestre, Trecore and Saint Panthaleon, because it's far from given the escaper survives until Jafferau or Cervinia respectively.

It all depends on Aru's shape and plans to spice things up though. If he's happy with a stage win on Prato Nevoso and I think Ciccone gets the blue jersey. Otherwise we're spot on

 

[DanielSong39]

Aru wins it from the break?

 

[Robert5091]

Re:

I'll ask my usual question when see long flat stages... Any chance of wind or rain?

According to https://weather.com/weather/today/l/ITPM1905:1:IT for Mondovi
Sunshine and some clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High around 25C. Winds light and variable.

 

[Sestriere]

Re:

I'll ask my usual question when see long flat stages... Any chance of wind or rain?

Doesn't look lke it's gonna be more than 10 knots, but have a look yourself:
https://www.windy.com/?44.811,8.319,9

 

[Tonton]

Re: Giro 2018 stage18: Abbiategrasso – Prato Nevoso 196 km

Little GC action until the final 5 km, I believe. No one wants to pay the price with two very tough stages after this one. There are many ways to look at who should move and for what reason. I doubt that anyone in the top-10 will be accepted in the BOD, but guys 10-20 like Aru or Betancur may be. GC-wise, Yates won't move if riders 5-10 go early in the climb. He'll let Sky defend Froome and set a strong tempo. As it was posted, a 10-15-rider sprint is likely. I shall make no prediction, cross my fingers...

 

[movingtarget]

Sky train being controlled by the Michelton train ? If ever a stage needed a second climb...........Yates will probably let some riders in the top 10 jump away unless he sees some weakness in the riders just behind him on GC and decides to continue to be aggressive. Aru might try something long range, Chaves probably doesn't have the shape. Riders like Dennis won't mind a conservative stage or a controlled one.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Sky train being controlled by the Michelton train ? If ever a stage needed a second climb...........Yates will probably let some riders in the top 10 jump away unless he sees some weakness in the riders just behind him on GC and decides to continue to be aggressive. Aru might try something long range, Chaves probably doesn't have the shape. Riders like Dennis won't mind a conservative stage or a controlled one.

Very true methinks. Yates has to watch Dumoulin until proven otherwise. Dumoulin watches Yates. Pozzo watches Froome and Pinot. Froome likes the one climb deal, but he's he Froome? Pinot would love no BOD, the finish sets up well, a few bonus seconds are eating the elephant one bite at a time. Carapaz, Lopez could attack and who will follow? This Giro is very Italian, drama, intrigues, before there were bikes it must have been written.

 

[luckyboy]

Re:

I'm interested in how the fight for the mountain classification is going to develeop over the next three stages. So far, all mountain stages have been won by GC riders hence they are strongly represented in the current ranking:

.....

So there's enough points to make underway to still fight for Blu even if you fail to score high at the finishes. Nevertheless, theis competition will be highly dependend on whether the current trend of the break not making it continues. At least on one of the stages I would expect a large break to win.
So far, only Ciccone and Masnada caught my eye with their attempts to score KOM points, however, with so many points still available, others could still join the fun (could Chaves be allowed?). Good legs will be necessary though, as you will have to be on the march on two big mountain stages in a row. Thus, I could see the jersey to be won by Yates on the go.

When Emanuele Sel.. er Aru does his thing on 19 and 20 he will win blue easily

 

[The Barb]

Re:

I'm interested in how the fight for the mountain classification is going to develeop over the next three stages. So far, all mountain stages have been won by GC riders hence they are strongly represented in the current ranking:

1 YATES Simon 91
2 CICCONE Giulio 52
3 CHAVES Johan Esteban 47
4 PINOT Thibaut 46
5 FROOME Christopher 36
6 POZZOVIVO Domenico 36
7 MASNADA Fausto 35
8 CONTI Valerio 33
9 MONTAGUTI Matteo 29
10 CARAPAZ Richard 27

This is of course helped by the fact that pretty much all of this year's mountain stages finish on top of one. This won't change but at least stages 19 and 20 offer opportunities to win points before the final climb. Maximum points available:

Stage 18: 38, 35 of which on finishing climb
Stage 19: 102, 35 on finishing climb
Stage 20: 105, 35 on finishing climb
=>Overall: 245, 105

So there's enough points to make underway to still fight for Blu even if you fail to score high at the finishes. Nevertheless, theis competition will be highly dependend on whether the current trend of the break not making it continues. At least on one of the stages I would expect a large break to win.
So far, only Ciccone and Masnada caught my eye with their attempts to score KOM points, however, with so many points still available, others could still join the fun (could Chaves be allowed?). Good legs will be necessary though, as you will have to be on the march on two big mountain stages in a row. Thus, I could see the jersey to be won by Yates on the go.

Great post, thanks indeed.

The standings after the time trial play to Ciccone’s favour. If Dumoulin had the pink jersey and Yates needed to ride aggressively then he would win the mountains classification without trying. Now, I expect him to ride more conservatively, which makes me lean towards Ciccone.

Ciccone needs to ride smart, however. His best path in my view is to take it easy today and focus on getting into the break the next two days. If he secured maximum points over the early climbs on those stages will almost wrap it up, irrespective of whether he also picks up the stage win.

 

[rata de sentina]

Re:

Terrible stage design.

Well you know if Dumoulin was leading the GC now you wouldn't be saying that.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Sky train being controlled by the Michelton train ? If ever a stage needed a second climb...........Yates will probably let some riders in the top 10 jump away unless he sees some weakness in the riders just behind him on GC and decides to continue to be aggressive. Aru might try something long range, Chaves probably doesn't have the shape. Riders like Dennis won't mind a conservative stage or a controlled one.

Very true methinks. Yates has to watch Dumoulin until proven otherwise. Dumoulin watches Yates. Pozzo watches Froome and Pinot. Froome likes the one climb deal, but he's he Froome? Pinot would love no BOD, the finish sets up well, a few bonus seconds are eating the elephant one bite at a time. Carapaz, Lopez could attack and who will follow? This Giro is very Italian, drama, intrigues, before there were bikes it must have been written.

To be honest I wouldn't mind seeing Pozzo or Pinot on the podium. Froome has had plenty of success and he did not look great yesterday. It seems he is having trouble putting two good days together. The podium is far from decided. Even Dumoulin doesn't look that convincing on the climbs not like last year when he had no trouble keeping Nibali and Quintana on a leash and rode within himself and of course those two didn't look as good as previous years. Yates has messed up Dumoulin's plans this year and the mountain stages have been more aggressive. I think the entire race this year has been a bit more chaotic compared to last year. Less than two minutes covered the top five riders at the finish of the race last year. This year it's already much bigger.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Ciccone and/or Masnana might indeed overtake Yates in the GPM if they wait today and take a lot of points the next two days. Chaves will have to stay with Yates. For the points Viviani and Bennett might sprint for the intermediate today, but Viviani probably has it in the pocket. The white jersey will probably stay with MAL, although Carapaz reains a threat.