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Giro d'Italia Giro d‘Italia 2024 Stage 20, Alpago-Bassano del Grappa, 184 km

One final mountain day:

Stage 20: Alpago – Bassano del Grappa, 184.0k​



It’s taken all race, but at last we’ve arrived at a mountain stage designed for attacks from distance. The big question: will the GC situation be right for them?



The route



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The final stage start in the Alps falls to Alpago, the historical gateway to Belluno and the southeastern Dolomites. The stage heads in the opposite direction, into Vittorio Veneto, site of the decisive battle on the Italian Front in World War I (the armistice, as mentioned previously, being signed in Pavia in its immediate aftermath). The next port of call is one final reminder of everything wrong with Mauro Vegni: this passage of the Muro di Ca’ del Poggio makes it the single most-used KOM during his tenure heading RCS. Just like the previous five times it’s been used, it will be mostly irrelevant.



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And that’s me done complaining with the route, because the rest of the stage is great. Yes, they could have used one of the irregular eastern sides with the monster ramps early on for the first ascent of Grappa, but we still have a final 95 kilometres containing two ascents of an absolute behemoth and very little flat. The Semonzo side is most the classic one, last seen a decade ago when Nairo Quintana won the MTT. It’s a brilliant climb, averaging over 8% for over 18 kilometres with the gradients only dipping below 7% during two tiny descending sections.



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Of course, we cannot talk about Monte Grappa without mentioning the awful bloodshed here in the final year of World War I. After being routed at Caporetto, in modern Slovenia, the Italian army managed to halt the Austrian progress at the Piave river… but the ability to maintain that front depended on holding the line at Monte Grappa. Three large assaults were mounted here, two by the Austrians and the final one by the Italians, in the advent of Vittorio Veneto. Tens of thousands fell in those battles alone, not to mention the effects of the winter weather on the mountainside. In World War 2, another 1500 were killed here, members of the Italian resistance slaughtered at the hands of the Salò regime. A large monument, containing the remains of over 20000 fallen soldiers, as well as many surviving fortifications, form a lasting memory of humanity’s horrors.



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The descent into Romano d’Ezzelino is interrupted by the short wall to Il Pianaro, with bonus seconds on the final of its two ascents.

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After the first descent, the flat lasts until the next village over, where the fun begins again. The finish in Bassano del Grappa is further from the bottom of the descent, but not by much.

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Bassano del Grappa has been the centre of the area in front of the Grappa since the Middle Ages, usually ruled from one of the larger cities (Vicenza, Padova and especially Venice) to its south. It may be perennially tied to the evils of Monte Grappa, even in name after the fascists had ‘del Grappa’ appended to it, but it is actually a rather picturesque place.

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What to expect?

It’s the kind of stage that can only end up at opposite ends of the scale: long-range attacks if the riders are up to it, a damp squib if they’re not.

Credit to @Devil's Elbow once more.
 
After finishing 15 minutes behind the break today I'd say the GC are "feeling up to it"?

Pog to win - how could he not? Grappa is a monster and they have to climb it twice so very doubtful he will do anything on the first ascent and there is almost 30km of descending to the finish. With the Tour he might attack 4km from the top.

Hopefully Ben O'Conner is feeling better and can at least hang with Martinez and Thomas.
 
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So finally the most difficult climb of this Giro. And climbed twice on top of that! Monte Grappa is the Italian Mt Ventoux, first mountain rising from Veneto plains, similarly to the Giant of Provence. "Start" of the Alps. It's a huge ascent - 1500 vertical meters gained at an average gradient of over 8%. Those numbers classify it among the biggest climbs in pro-cycling. A couple of short respites but also a few double digit sections later on. In terms of the profile it's super similar to the southern side of Col de la Madeleine actually.

As for the sporting side UAE won't let the breakaway go too far. The first Grappa ascent won't be leisure. I'm expecting about 56-57 minutes of ascent (VAM of 1570-1600 m/h). The second ascent will be brutal. UAE will set a strong tempo in the first half and Teddy will catapult 7 km from the line, around the first double digit section. He won't take any risks on the downhill so he will make sure to attack earlier and gain a substantial gap. Super speed, 51 minutes, 1750 m/h of VAM. Basso's GC gap will be toppled.

Ok, I was just kidding...he will actually lap the field.
 
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Seems safe to say Pogacar will win but interest will be on the other positions and who attacks there
Interesting to gauge whether, and how much, Thomas will want to push to grab the 2nd spot? Does it really matter to him if it’s 2nd or 3rd spot? I believe Martinez is stronger but given his lack of support Ineos could try to get him isolated quickly and then see what they can manage from there. As someone pointed out in another thread, it will behoove BORA to get a semi-decent climber in the break with the hope that they can provide support at the end of stage. Of course, none of the above may happen given how the .”contender” bunch has been riding. Still, it’s something interesting to look forward to, along with the dynamics in the break, the scenery, & the Pog monster mash.
 
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Interesting to gauge whether, and how much, Thomas will want to push to grab the 2nd spot? Does it really matter to him if it’s 2nd or 3rd spot? I believe Martinez is stronger but given his lack of support Ineos could try to get him isolated quickly and then see what they can manage from there. As someone pointed out in another thread, it will behoove BORA to get a semi-decent climber in the break with the hope that they can provide support at the end of stage. Of course, none of the above may happen given how the .”contender” bunch has been riding. Still, it’s something interesting to look forward to, along with the dynamics in the break, the scenery, & the Pog monster mash.
Of course you want to be second. We all remember what happened with Froome