Giro d'Italia Giro d’Italia 2024, Stage 14: Castigliano delle Stiviere – Desenzano del Garda, 31.2k (ITT)

[Extinction]

On paper maybe. But then one of the two mountain stages would likely be neutralized by the peloton and the TV audience would just endlessly complain. TTs can't be neutralized. The best riders have to go full gas no matter what.

I love TTs. Perugia was incredibly entertaining for me. I would trade it with a mountain stage only if the organizers could guarantee me the riders will go full gas from far out. But they can't, so I'll gladly take the TT.

I love TTs too. However, most working folks can only watch on the weekend. So they should plan to offer a spectacle.

 

[Red Rick]

On paper maybe. But then one of the two mountain stages would likely be neutralized by the peloton and the TV audience would just endlessly complain. TTs can't be neutralized. The best riders have to go full gas no matter what.

I love TTs. Perugia was incredibly entertaining for me. I would trade it with a mountain stage only if the organizers could guarantee me the riders will go full gas from far out. But they can't, so I'll gladly take the TT.

My personal complaint would be the order of ITTs, in that the one that's 50% longer in duration is first.

 

[hayneplane]

Expect Arensman to overtake every rider within a minutes advantage of him to move up to 6th on GC.

Thomas should in theory be better on this parcours than Martinez but I feel like Martinez is in better form.

Pogacar to be the best of the GC riders and extend his lead but probably not beat Ganna/Sheffield.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Yes I heard that audiences were down for this Giro, a real shame as barring a couple of the usual sleepy stages I've really enjoyed it, the racing has been excellent. The Tour continues to be the main game in town by a considerable and growing distance.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Because a Friday TT followed by a massive mountain stage on Saturday and again on Sunday would be better for the television audience.

Which specific international TV audience are you speaking about?

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Party

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Would be a good stage if Ineos brought taeo geoghen 'cancellara' hart to the giro, I remember last year he borrowed Ganna legs for a bit before his crash

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Would be a good stage if Ineos brought taeo geoghen 'cancellara' hart to the giro, I remember last year he borrowed Ganna legs for a bit before his crash

I don't think Trek would allow that.

 

[Tonton]

Pog can win this thing. On the paper he's third, but he's Teddy Merckx, isn't he?

 

[Red Rick]

Why not? I'm not working and Desenzano is just an hour away from my place.

Vegni still making up for planning Lombardia on SafeBets wedding day that one time

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Obviously this TT favours Ganna more, compared to the first one. However, it's not dead flat and has rolling sections. Pogacar lost 47 seconds on similar length in the first TT (first 2/3 of the route). However 3 factors indicate that his loss today should be smaller:
1) This TT is a bit more rolling than first 2/3 of the first one (basically dead flat).
2) Pogacar had a strong negative split strategy in the first half of that flat section while Ganna started the first TT super strong.
3) It's already the end of week 2. There haven't been many difficult stages since the last TT but it can matter a bit.

All things considered I think Pogacar will lose not more than 30 seconds to Ganna. I wouldn't even rule out him winning (but he's not the favourite). Obviously I'm expecting Pogacar to put 1 minute+ over most of GC guys (Thomas should fare better this time and may end up somewhat close to Pogacar).

 

[Cookster15]

Ganna, Sheffield and Arensman podium. Arensman matched Pog on the flat portion of the last TT and paced well enough to do well on the climb so he should be impressive. Also expecting a good ride from Thomas. Wouldn’t be surprised if Pog doesn’t overburden himself and lets the other guys duke it out.

I am thinking you can't read too much into the first TT? I think Pogacar was saving himself on the flat portion for the final climb which of course he demolished.

 

[movingtarget]

Thomas gets another chance to put some time on his second place rivals. Otherwise Ganna v Pogacar again and the top 10 gaps should open up. Would have preferred to see the TT later but the results would probably be similar anyway.

 

[BigCoward]

If Thomas isn't coming into some form and putting time into his rivals, he's probably not going to be able to protect the podium next week.

 

[Salvarani]

Pog can win this thing. On the paper he's third, but he's Teddy Merckx, isn't he?

Teddy P going for the T.K.O. this weekend.

Not many will get this reference.

 

[Red Rick]

Tbh what's talked about basically nothing is how tame the battle has been behind Pogacar for 2 weeks now. They've basically only sprinted uphill a few times and done the ITT.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Tbh what's talked about basically nothing is how tame the battle has been behind Pogacar for 2 weeks now. They've basically only sprinted uphill a few times and done the ITT.

Everybody is saving their matches for D-day titled I'm gone I'm dead.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Tbh what's talked about basically nothing is how tame the battle has been behind Pogacar for 2 weeks now. They've basically only sprinted uphill a few times and done the ITT.

Well, Martinez and Thomas are both saving their matches for this TT where they hope to take second place, O‘Connor hasn‘t really had the courage to do anything after Oropa and Tiberi is accelerating almost RoboBasso-like so far and just hasn‘t succeeded because he‘s been going kind of half-assed so far. Rubio has looked good up to now and should think about attacking at altitude on Sunday, because he‘ll be an hour down at that point. The others are fighting themselves using breakaways. I hope Bardet has found his mojo now because he‘s the one I‘d be looking at for a bigger move.

 

[SafeBet]

Tiberi is accelerating almost RoboBasso-like so far

He looks a lot like Basso, but not the robo version, more like the Fassa Bortolo version of Basso.
Let's see if he's got a RoboTiberi in him before the Giro ends.

 

[Red Rick]

Well, Martinez and Thomas are both saving their matches for this TT where they hope to take second place, O‘Connor hasn‘t really had the courage to do anything after Oropa and Tiberi is accelerating almost RoboBasso-like so far and just hasn‘t succeeded because he‘s been going kind of half-assed so far. Rubio has looked good up to now and should think about attacking at altitude on Sunday, because he‘ll be an hour down at that point. The others are fighting themselves using breakaways. I hope Bardet has found his mojo now because he‘s the one I‘d be looking at for a bigger move.

I mean the parcours also hasn't been great for the 2ndary contenders to fight, with the MTFs being on the moderate side which makes sprinting for 2nd behind Pogacar just have much more sense.

Every Giro has this lul around stage 10-13 with the Po plains and other nothing stages and frankly it's a bit of a slog every time.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I suppose that Saturday and Sunday slots are probably sold to host towns at a higher price than Fridays. This "touristic area" has an interest in showing off their storefronts or courtyards full of turquoise water or whatever attracts the travelers.

Storefronts and courtyards full of turquoise water would attract a small, niche group of flood enthusiasts (delugologists? indunationophiles?) Scarcely the basis for economy-sustaining mass tourism.

 

[solo80k]

I expect Ganna winning with 20-30 seconds margin, typical no-brainer prediction.

Pogacar, Thomas and Arensman in top 6 of the stage, Martinez in top 10 easily. All of mentioned GC contenders within 1:30, no massive gaps.

Badret to lose 2:30 to the best GC guys.

Really interesting how Tiberi will perform... 🤔

 

[Netserk]

I expect it to be really close between Ganna and Pogi, less than 10" between them.

 

[Red Rick]

I expect it to be really close between Ganna and Pogi, less than 10" between them.

Why so much better for Pogacar than the T2 split in the first ITT?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I expect it to be really close between Ganna and Pogi, less than 10" between them.

I don‘t believe it will be quite as close but I would be negatively surprised if Pogi doesn‘t finish 2nd.

Slightly more rolling TT: https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2021/stage-5