Giro d'Italia Giro d’Italia 2024, Stage 7: Foligno – Perugia, 40.6k (ITT)

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Pogi was 2nd behind Vingo in the 22km 2023 Tour ITT, and 1min 13 seconds ahead of Van Aert in third.

Given that
1. Pogi wasn't in top form for that day
2. Van Aert is a much better rider than Bjerg who is second atm
3. This ITT is almost twice as long

You would expect Pogi to be a lot more than that ahead of Bjerg. I'd expect Pogi to be around 2 minutes better than Bjerg. Ganna is 1min 39 ahead of Bjerg so I would say that Pogi has a good chance of beating that
Bjerg is a really good time trialist. He was 9th last year in the world championships TT.
 
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Feb 20, 2012
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In my opinion beating Bjerg in the uphill section is a good sign for Ganna. But if guys like Schachmann are only at 1.06 at T2 then it looks pretty grim
 
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Jul 16, 2015
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In my opinion beating Bjerg in the uphill section is a good sign for Ganna. But if guys like Schachmann are only at 1.06 at T2 then it looks pretty grim

I was just thinking the same. Schachmann is either doing the ITT of his life, or Pog is going to be close here (to the stage win).
 
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If we take the final 4km of the Combloux ITT and the Perugia ITT as fairly similar, Pogacar took 27s out of Van Aert on the shallower 2nd half of the climb.