There are many reasons to believe in a Pogacar victory: his level has never been higher than this year, and he’s in better shape at this point in the season than he usually is; he has never won the race before, and he will undoubtedly be extra motivated to claim his first victory in the rainbow stripes. Furthermore, his biggest rival, Roglic, may not be quite as strong as he usually is—it seems he has lost just a bit of his sharpness in the finishes—and it’s hard to see anyone else beating him in a race that almost always gets decided on the final ascent up the San Luca climb.