Giro d'Italia 2015 Stage 7: Grosseto – Fiuggi 264 kms

[HiroAntagonist]

I'm thinking the pace will be fierce, but who knows what plans are being made this evening. Astana definitely seem more opportunistic than Sky who seem to be saving as much energy as possible.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

On second thoughts, wasn't Contador Aru's youth idol? Maybe Aru has so much respect he at least will want to beat Alberto uphill and not finish him 'cheaply' in a stage like tomorrow.

It doesn't matter, everybody will do the race tomorrow as it should be done to get an advantage against opposition regardless it's Contador, Porte, Aru or you name it. Unfortunately Contador is injured and might have a problem but if he can't keep up tomorrow what chances are that Saturday he'll be that better to contest some uphill onslaught?

Not sure what your point is tbh. What doesn't matter? If Astana and Sky decide to take it easy, Alberto has an extra day to recover from injury without losing time..

Point is it doesn't matter Bertie was Aru's idol, it's the Giro and Fabio wants to win it so nobody will take it easy. Of course it's my opinion and I might be totally wrong, Sky and Astana could soft pedal all the 264 km.

I think it does play a role. Aru is quite similar to Contador, someone who races with his heart and I think they respect each other a lot. That's why Aru might want to wait till Saturday.

But I'm very curious if anything will happen or not.

 

[sir fly]

Even without the accident that happened to Contador, this stage combined with the Saturday's uphill finish is intriguing.
The stage can easily be treated like a classic.
Looks like Lobato's cup of tea, and that's everything I'm daring to predict... I have no idea how it will unfold.

 

[observer]

Alberto is dangerous even with a broken leg. I don't think the other teams will give him a rest. They might not outright attack, but the pace will be high to see if he is bluffing or really sore.

I've actually done the same injury, on both shoulders at different times. The first on the soccer pitch when i was a younger man, and the second time only about a month ago after being run down by a taxi. Sure it was sore both times, but riding was not a problem. With strapping and top docs and massage etc, I think Contador will be fine to continue. Even if the ligaments are bit of a mess, its not something urgent to be fixed. Perhaps a reconstruction in the off season.

 

[hfer07]

This should be another breakaway stage win, since the GC teams will be thinking ahead for Saturday's MTF heavy duty pulling. This should be an opportunity for Uran to try something out of the box to get time back-maybe Hesjedal can join him- maybe Cunego -even the Fat Cat (betancur) can try something-perhaps some of Movistar crew can try their luck here.....

should be interesting- perhaps Astana & SKY do the dirty work against Contador on this stage to knock him off the Giro for good... we'll see

 

[Tank Engine]

I just hope Bertie is in shape to be competitive, but it doesn't sound good.
The end will be difficult to control. If a strong break goes, I don't think anyone will really want to bring it back.
On the other hand, the start is pretty flat and teams like Movistar and OGE might want to control it for Lobato, Gerrans/Matthews.
Either way, I'm hoping it's a day for Hansen.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re:

I just hope Bertie is in shape to be competitive, but it doesn't sound good.
The end will be difficult to control. If a strong break goes, I don't think anyone will really want to bring it back.
On the other hand, the start is pretty flat and teams like Movistar and OGE might want to control it for Lobato, Gerrans/Matthews.
Either way, I'm hoping it's a day for Hansen.

Injured or not injured Contador wants to give away the pink jersey. I think that Visconti will be in the break. If OGE send a rider in the break then the break won't be brought back unless a GC team drills it, but I see no reason why they would.

I think the liklihood of the stage outcome is 90% break, 6% Matthews, 2% Felline and 2% Lobato

 

[Singer01]

Re: Re:

Sky and Astana are NOT going to work tomorrow. They are not interesting in appearing as cold-hearted villians who are attacking wounded prey. At least not Sky who are more image conscious.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if they kept the pace super high

Astana is a little dirtier in their tactics, so they might keep the pace high without attacking. But no way, Sky would try to do something.

The only time I've seen them playing dirty was in this year's Milano-Sanremo.

2012 Vuelta? Valverde crashes in the leader's jersey, Sky respond by putting 6 guys on the front and telling them to drill it

surely valverde is the one person you can attack with impunity.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

Alberto is dangerous even with a broken leg. I don't think the other teams will give him a rest. They might not outright attack, but the pace will be high to see if he is bluffing or really sore.

I've actually done the same injury, on both shoulders at different times. The first on the soccer pitch when i was a younger man, and the second time only about a month ago after being run down by a taxi. Sure it was sore both times, but riding was not a problem. With strapping and top docs and massage etc, I think Contador will be fine to continue. Even if the ligaments are bit of a mess, its not something urgent to be fixed. Perhaps a reconstruction in the off season.

When something is injured, the body spends energy trying to fix it.
You may not always feel that as at the recreational level, but in a 3 week GT with every % counting, it does matter - whether he's in pain or not.

 

[eljimberino]

Paolini

 

[Tank Engine]

Re: Re:

Injured or not injured Contador wants to give away the pink jersey. I think that Visconti will be in the break. If OGE send a rider in the break then the break won't be brought back unless a GC team drills it, but I see no reason why they would.

I think the liklihood of the stage outcome is 90% break, 6% Matthews, 2% Felline and 2% Lobato

I agree that Movistar's plan will be significant in determining what happens. I'd say it's likely that they're planning an assault on the pink jersey, OGE probably would like to have somebody up the road as well, but it's never as simple as sending somebody into a break though. The GC teams would probably be happy to give Visconti a couple of minutes if he does get away, but they'll keep him on a tighter leash than those further down GC. I think that a break will be successful, but I have less confidence than you in that.

 

[ILovecycling]

Cunego might try something here as well


It will be sunny weather with 10-15km south wind.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Paolini

Nice one I for one would love to see the old bearded fox take the win

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

Sky/Astana will set a hard pace in the last 20k, that's a given.

Yep surely. Should anyway.

As far as ettiquette, taking it easy to allow a rider back on after he's crashed is different to soft pedalling once he's decided to put himself on the start-line the following day. Once that happens, he's fair game.

I thought that Porte needed to gain time on stage 8 anyway; now he really does have to if he is to defeat Contador.

 

[LaFlorecita]

They could give him one day to recover before trying to put him to the sword, but alas, I am not expecting that from Sky and Astana, two of the least sympathetic teams. I guess, if they really don't mind that one of their rivals got taken down by a crash caused by a spectator (as Brailsfraud's comments seem to suggest), they should go ahead and kill him off right now and be done with it. Better get it over with quickly.

 

[mrhender]

I really think this will be for the breakaway.. So many riders will want to go and to control the race of 264km is going to be very very hard and may be to big a price to pay just to get a shot at the final..

Imo a break of 15-20 riders will be on the menu today..

Paolini is a good mention, the distance should suit him..

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think this one is really hard to predict. I'm not so sure the break will take it. This is one of the main targets for OGE and with riders like Hepburn, Durbridge, Lancaster and Weening they have a pretty good team to control a stage that is mostly flat. Surely BMC will be looking for that stage win for Gilbert as well and if he doesn't join the break, I'm sure BMC will take responsibility as well. Felline and Battaglin/Colbrelli will want to challenge the win as well, but they might actually just join the break. It's a very tough stage to predict and a lot depends on the composition of the break. For instance, Movistar have one of the major favorites for the stage in Lobato, but they will for sure put someone like Amador and/or Visconti in the break and not help the chase.

 

[ILovecycling]

Is there an early stage coverage or not?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Is there an early stage coverage or not?

I don't think so but I'm not 100% sure.

 

[Beacon Hill]

Tough one to call from a betting perspective today. Been making plenty of money so far from this Giro but this is difficult as perhaps Contador's injury could make the stage different.

Personally I would hope that a break makes it today with a kind of truce called between the GC teams until tomorrow. Paolini is a decent shout, IAM seem quite active and Bardiani have little to show so far, then there is Hansen . Fellini or Matthews if it comes back together.

Going to stick my neck out for a break win with either Paterski, Hansen or Battaglin.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I think OGE with Matthews and / or Gerrans have a great chance if it comes together at the end and should have enough engines in the team to strangle this

Wouldn't be surprised to see some x-wind as well which isn't going to help the break

 

[SafeBet]

There's nothing dirty in exploiting your opponent's weaknesses. It's the basis of the sport, of any sport actually.
If I'm Astana, I surely test Contador's conditions in the last 30 kms.

Visconti will be eager to wear pink today and he's in monster shape. So yeah, Movistar cuold play a big role today.
I'm also expecting Kung to give it a go.

 

[LaFlorecita]

??
It's not necessarily wrong but it is definitely dirty.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Tinkoff will want a strong pace in the final anyway - much easier for Contador than stop/start

 

[Miburo]

Re:

??
It's not necessarily wrong but it is definitely dirty.

I don't think it is, it's exploiting Contador's weakness.

He got it on an unfair way, yea but that's cycling, crashes happen.

Is it unfair to attack Froome downhill? No cause that's apperently one of his weaknesses.

Maybe Froome had a trauma as kid and that's why he can't race downhill, not fair right? Does Contador care? No.

Same with the schlecks, frank had that terrible crash in swiss years ago. Did that stop Contador from attacking them in the next years downhill? No.