Giro d'Italia 2017 STAGE 20: Pordenone – Asiago 190 km

[fauniera]

Re:

How flat is "the final flat bit"? It doesn't look all that flat.

Quite flat.

Good terrain for Zakarin to attack.

 

[luckyboy]

Watching the 2010 Grappa stage again I realised that we are missing rain in this Giro. It's a shame they use the less technical descent.

Hopefully some teams are able to hit Grappa hard at the front like Liquigas did then.

 

[jaylew]

I'm hoping for the GC to look something similar to this after this stage:

Nairo
Nibali & Pinot at around :30
Zakarin at around 1:00
Dumoulin at around 1:30

Straight-up TT shootout for Pink!

 

[Ferminal]

Ca' del Poggio GPM4
Just a steep wall. Too isolated to matter much.

Wish we could see this but it looks like TV could be too late. Not saying this will catch out any GC riders but there could be a big battle in the first hour between the GC teams to get their riders in the break and keep other riders out. Maybe it could all come to a head here ?

It's a nice wall, I think I remember it from 2013(?). Super short sprint stage with a bit of action in the first half.

Not really in anyone's interests to go hard over it, good for break bridgers only.

Before we saw Dumoulin struggling on the last climb yesterday I presumed Movistar and Bahrain would try and get most of their team in the "break" but maybe they see an opportunity with a more conservative approach. Either way they need to make it a hard day and climbing doms are running out of legs, Pellizotti tempo on Grappa will not be enough so use all your legs to drill it like yesterday before you get there.

 

[AlexNYC]

As we saw in stage 19, this is now an attrition race. I would be very surprised if any of the GC men has anything left to attack. They'll go up the two climbs as fast as they can and some will start dropping like flies. I'm inclined to believe that the time distances among the contenders by the end of today's stage will be very similar to the current ones, with the possible exception of Dumoulin's.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Re: Re:

I think thats harsh on CCC, they haven't exactly nursed Hirt. Their selection is 100% justified based on what Hirt has done in the last week. Gazprom, on the other hand, completely gone. Where is Androni?

Schinto can't be happy either and don't get me started on Bardiani, what a travesty.

But yeah, basically one rider from those team have anything to be proud of.

Fair point about Hirt. It's just you expect pro-conti teams to be entertaining. To be at the sharp end of breaks every day. Hirt is doing a great personal ride, but I'm not sure a rider unspectacularly battling for position with Polanc, Cataldo and Monfort is what the organisers had in mind when inviting the pro conti teams.

Yeah, it's crazy Androni weren't invitied. Probably don't have the same influence behind the scenes as Gazprom and CCC. I reckon Bernal would have had a decent chance of a stage win here, or at least a few top 5s.

That is unfair for Hirt. The first week he lost plenty of time. He was caught out in echelons, had a bad day in Etna but slowly began to improve as days went by. He is a kind of Kangert / Kruijswijk, a rider which recovers very well and excels on really hard parcours. He was quite anonymous on the first two weeks, until he did a good performance in Oropa, and then he joined the breakaway of the two queen stages, not doing an anonymous move just to gain some time, but to try and win the stage (he was the second best of the breakaway riders in the Stelvio stage and the third one in the Ortisei stage)

He has done much more than ride for 12º/13º/14º. In my opinion, he has done a better race than Yates, Formolo or Mollema which haven't tried a single thing but to hold the wheels of the GC guys for three weeks and cannot be compared to the likes of Dupont, Konrad or Monfort.

Hirt is having a good Giro, but I dont think he has added much to the race. He indeed was in a few breaks but he basically didnt contribute one bit in those breaks (Landa/Kruijswijk etc were all mad at him), he just was there for a few ride and to get higher up the GC. Its his first Giro and he has the right to do so but his place in the GC doesnt justify their wildcard imo. Besides that Hirt seems to be really a guy who can climb very well (and have good recuperation) but he is weak on the flat, the itt and the not very hard hills, so it doesnt come as a surprise he gets caught out in the echolons, isnt very strong on the (firsty) not very hard mountain stage etc. Androni on the other hand would have really animated the race, they would not care about a 14th place in GC (and not be in that position as they would not have tried to go for GC), they could have made the race and have an influence on GC + stage victories.
Not saying that CCC is the least deserving wildcard team (as I think bardiani/wilier/gazprom didnt add much either and have probably been weaker then CCC), but just saying it is ridicilous that Androni was not invited and in my opinion they would have done more for the race than all 4 WC teams have done.

 

[vass45]

Re:

I'm hoping for the GC to look something similar to this after this stage:

Nairo
Nibali & Pinot at around :30
Zakarin at around 1:00
Dumoulin at around 1:30

Straight-up TT shootout for Pink!

Certainly gaps like that are not out of the question - and it may be pretty close to how it actually ends up after this stage. This would be awesome - it would make for one hell of a TT...!!!

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Re:

I've really understimated the Foza climb. It's easily HC in the Tour.

No, it's not. Verbier (1st category) is rated as slightly more difficult on cyclingcols.com, for instance. La Toussuire (1st) ...significantly more difficult than Foza. Hard side of Col de la Colombiere (again, 1st) is also considerably harder.

https://www.cyclingcols.com/col/Foza
https://www.cyclingcols.com/col/Colombiere

 

[vcampbell]

Dumoulin to crack early, so Geschke to ride free and win the stage.

 

[klintE]

Re: Re:

Let Pinot get a 10 seconds gap plus bonifications and let's see who'll ride the TT on road bike better

Different story.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

Dumulin will take the stage and the GC bar any accidents or getting caught in a silly split. He's also by far the most handsome rider which suits the maglia rosa and the Giro in general, an oft overlooked detail imo.

I know there is no accounting for taste but Pinot is more handsome than Dumoulin who has a funny face and chin...Pinot is very handsome in a very French way

Nibali is also very attractive...

 

[Velolover2]

For the excitement of the race, Dumoulin needs lose a bit more of time. But Nibali/Quintana probably wouldn't attack.

It's up to Zakarin, Pinot and Pozzovivo. And Pozzovivo is the only one that they can allow to attack because of his weak TT.

 

[Savant12]

Would really love it for Dumoulin to ride better today. Don't want to see him lose anything more than 40 seconds today.

 

[Velolover2]

How much do Quintana needs on Dumoulin before the final TT? A minute? Maybe more.

 

[Velolover2]

Would really love it for Dumoulin to ride better today. Don't want to see him lose anything more than 40 seconds today.

If he loses 40 seconds to Quintana, he is still the favorite for the overall I think.

1:20 is not enough, IMO. It's 30k after all.

1 minute is the minimum requirement for Quintana.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

Let Pinot get a 10 seconds gap plus bonifications and let's see who'll ride the TT on road bike better

Different story.

Different but intertwined with the event of Nairo not attacking at all and the event of him having a relatively easy Sunday.
Interesting dynamics will develop today. For everyone Sunday TT will be full turbo mode.

 

[SafeBet]

I'm getting a little nervous for this. I so want it to be an epic stage, but at the same time I'd love the gaps to be reduced, making the ITT still meaningful.

Don't know what to expect. Would've been better to have Nibali with 2-3 minutes gap. With the current GC I'm not sure anybody would benefit from attacking early.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

I'm getting a little nervous for this. I so want it to be an epic stage, but at the same time I'd love the gaps to be reduced, making the ITT still meaningful.

Don't know what to expect. Would've been better to have Nibali with 2-3 minutes gap. With the current GC I'm not sure anybody would benefit from attacking early.

Kruijswijk should go early in a hope of either winning a stage or gain podium spots. That's his way of doing it.

But nobody in top 9 will attack on Grappa. Maybe weak attack in the final k of Grappa which is about 8% and gain nothing.

 

[glassmoon]

Re:

How much do Quintana needs on Dumoulin before the final TT? A minute? Maybe more.

Estimates are he'll lose 3-4s/km so 1:30-2:00 minutes total (not sure if there is a time bonus of 10s for Tom if he wins TT). But it's the last day of GT so recovery is a key. Neither Tom, neither Nairo is looking particularly fresh at this point so there could be surprises. Pinot have had some good TTs in the past and is looking fresher than any of the other GC guys...

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

I'm getting a little nervous for this. I so want it to be an epic stage, but at the same time I'd love the gaps to be reduced, making the ITT still meaningful.

Don't know what to expect. Would've been better to have Nibali with 2-3 minutes gap. With the current GC I'm not sure anybody would benefit from attacking early.

On the other hand having a fit Tom in the main group at the bottom of Foza would be bad for all the other GC contenders. It's hard to think thay can take 2 minutes until the finish.

 

[Velolover2]

https://twitter.com/ProCyclingStats/status/868374733485690880

Kruijswijk out of the Giro with stomach problems.

 

[The Barb]

Kinda like Zakarin for this. His form looks to be holding up well and if he can hang with the other GC guys none of them will beat him in a flat sprint.

 

[Roku]

Re: Re:

Hirt is having a good Giro, but I dont think he has added much to the race. He indeed was in a few breaks but he basically didnt contribute one bit in those breaks (Landa/Kruijswijk etc were all mad at him), he just was there for a few ride and to get higher up the GC. Its his first Giro and he has the right to do so but his place in the GC doesnt justify their wildcard imo. Besides that Hirt seems to be really a guy who can climb very well (and have good recuperation) but he is weak on the flat, the itt and the not very hard hills, so it doesnt come as a surprise he gets caught out in the echolons, isnt very strong on the (firsty) not very hard mountain stage etc. Androni on the other hand would have really animated the race, they would not care about a 14th place in GC (and not be in that position as they would not have tried to go for GC), they could have made the race and have an influence on GC + stage victories.
Not saying that CCC is the least deserving wildcard team (as I think bardiani/wilier/gazprom didnt add much either and have probably been weaker then CCC), but just saying it is ridicilous that Androni was not invited and in my opinion they would have done more for the race than all 4 WC teams have done.

I definitely agree with you on Androni, at least basing the decision on sporting criteria, but i do think CCC has earned their wildcard and Hirt has done a contribution to the race. I do not expect much more for the GC rider of a wild-card team. They have maybe lacked a sprinter or a rider to fight for the middle mountain stages (is Ponzi still in the Giro?), but overall I think they have done an okay race.

And you are right regarding Hirt's abilities. He is weak on ITT and not very good on middle mountain stages, albeit not the Dombrowski-type. However he is still quite young (26), this Giro was his first GT and has progressed over the last few years, especially in terms of consistency, so I think he is a good climbing and GT prospect. I am not expecting him to win any GT, but i think some top-10 and a mountain stage is in his reach for the following years.

 

[StephenC2020]

Re:

https://twitter.com/ProCyclingStats/status/868374733485690880

Kruijswijk out of the Giro with stomach problems.

That's a shame for him. Pretty much hands Formolo a top 10 of course, unless a breakaway gets lots of time today, which is unlikely given the GC situation.

 

[Roku]

I feel pity for Steven. He won't forget that crash in the Agnello... I think he should forget a bit about GC and take a more relaxed approach for the next year. A good GC is in his reach, but I think he had put too many pressure on himself.