Giro d'Italia 2017 STAGE 20: Pordenone – Asiago 190 km

[ThePirate81]

Diego Rosa for the stage win.

 

[mavmav]

Re: Re:

I'm getting a little nervous for this. I so want it to be an epic stage, but at the same time I'd love the gaps to be reduced, making the ITT still meaningful.

Don't know what to expect. Would've been better to have Nibali with 2-3 minutes gap. With the current GC I'm not sure anybody would benefit from attacking early.

On the other hand having a fit Tom in the main group at the bottom of Foza would be bad for all the other GC contenders. It's hard to think thay can take 2 minutes until the finish.

But is it better for the other 5 riders to have 1 or 2 of them 2 minutes ahead at the bottom of the last climb? Quintana is here to win the Giro. You're still acting like everyone is here to make Dumoulin lose. "the other GC" contenders" are 5 individuals. They're not here to make sure one of them wins. They're here to win themselves. Before today they all wanted to crack Dumoulin and then fight it out between them. There is no time left for the latter anymore. They'll all hope he cracks, but they can't let one of them take minutes hoping that would make it happen. They might not win if they cross the line with Dumoulin, but they're also not winning if on of the other guys takes 2 minutes at the finish line.

Dumoulin is not in pink anymore, he bears no responsibility to lead the race. All he has to do is follow his competitors, and his competitors will have to race each other just as hard as they have to race Tom. It would have been better for Dumoulin to not lose the time he lost yesterday. But from a race tactic standpoint he's actually in an easier situation now.

 

[Climbing]

Lots of predictions, but it still feels heavily in favor of Tom Big Mouth, and today gradients are easier.

 

[seldon71]

Re: Re:

Kruijswijk should go early in a hope of either winning a stage or gain podium spots. That's his way of doing it.

Kruijswijk indeed went VERY early. Almost a day before the start of the stage... :twisted:

 

[mavmav]

Re:

Lots of predictions, but it still feels heavily in favor of Tom Big Mouth, and today gradients are easier.

Yep

I see 1 of 2 scenarios

Dumoulin is fading -> one of the other 5 will win the giro
Dumoulin had a bad day yesterday -> Dumoulin will win the Giro (barring disasters/miracles)

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Lots of predictions, but it still feels heavily in favor of Tom Big Mouth, and today gradients are easier.

Yep

I see 1 of 2 scenarios

Dumoulin is fading -> one of the other 5 will win the giro
Dumoulin had a bad day yesterday -> Dumoulin will win the Giro (barring disasters/miracles)

It's not that simple. Foza is a pretty tough climb, though without crazy cradients.

It's a really interesting last mountain stage to a GT, and with the GC it is now, it could be a group ride if it sticks together, or it could be one of the craziest finishes in a long long time.

 

[The Barb]

Re: Re:

Lots of predictions, but it still feels heavily in favor of Tom Big Mouth, and today gradients are easier.

Yep

I see 1 of 2 scenarios

Dumoulin is fading -> one of the other 5 will win the giro
Dumoulin had a bad day yesterday -> Dumoulin will win the Giro (barring disasters/miracles)

So to summarise, you're predicting someone in the top 6 will win the Giro. Bold.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

I'm getting a little nervous for this. I so want it to be an epic stage, but at the same time I'd love the gaps to be reduced, making the ITT still meaningful.

Don't know what to expect. Would've been better to have Nibali with 2-3 minutes gap. With the current GC I'm not sure anybody would benefit from attacking early.

On the other hand having a fit Tom in the main group at the bottom of Foza would be bad for all the other GC contenders. It's hard to think thay can take 2 minutes until the finish.

But is it better for the other 5 riders to have 1 or 2 of them 2 minutes ahead at the bottom of the last climb? Quintana is here to win the Giro. You're still acting like everyone is here to make Dumoulin lose. "the other GC" contenders" are 5 individuals. They're not here to make sure one of them wins. They're here to win themselves. Before today they all wanted to crack Dumoulin and then fight it out between them. There is no time left for the latter anymore. They'll all hope he cracks, but they can't let one of them take minutes hoping that would make it happen. They might not win if they cross the line with Dumoulin, but they're also not winning if on of the other guys takes 2 minutes at the finish line.

Dumoulin is not in pink anymore, he bears no responsibility to lead the race. All he has to do is follow his competitors, and his competitors will have to race each other just as hard as they have to race Tom. It would have been better for Dumoulin to not lose the time he lost yesterday. But from a race tactic standpoint he's actually in an easier situation now.

Nobody was here to make Domoulin loose but to win the Giro. This is not possible if Nairo, Nibs and Pinot finish with more or less the same time gap to Tom. On the other hand if Tom is out of the picture, with similar gaps at the end of the stage, the other three have each the chance to win it in the last TT.

 

[Red Rick]

I've only just noticed how close the fight for white is. I wonder how Jungels and Yates duking it out is gonna effect the main GC battle. Yates will probably looking to attack and will work with anyone of the main GC group.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

Lots of predictions, but it still feels heavily in favor of Tom Big Mouth, and today gradients are easier.

Yep

I see 1 of 2 scenarios

Dumoulin is fading -> one of the other 5 will win the giro
Dumoulin had a bad day yesterday -> Dumoulin will win the Giro (barring disasters/miracles)

So to summarise, you're predicting someone in the top 6 will win the Giro. Bold.

To be fair, he has put a line through TGBM

 

[DNP-Old]

Re:

Lots of predictions, but it still feels heavily in favor of Tom Big Mouth, and today gradients are easier.

Even a 5% ascent feels like Angliru at this point in the race.

 

[mavmav]

Re: Re:

Lots of predictions, but it still feels heavily in favor of Tom Big Mouth, and today gradients are easier.

Yep

I see 1 of 2 scenarios

Dumoulin is fading -> one of the other 5 will win the giro
Dumoulin had a bad day yesterday -> Dumoulin will win the Giro (barring disasters/miracles)

So to summarise, you're predicting someone in the top 6 will win the Giro. Bold.

It was from a Dumoulin standpoint. Given the comment I quoted.

But yes, I'm always very bold...

 

[meat puppet]

Pinot easily the most handsome gc boyo in our era. No contest at all.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Lots of predictions, but it still feels heavily in favor of Tom Big Mouth, and today gradients are easier.

Even a 5% ascent feels like Angliru at this point in the race.

Speaking of which. The climb to Foza:

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

Pinot easily the most handsome gc boyo in our era. No contest at all.

Flo will argue that in this contest, the second place is Pinot's only possibility

 

[cellardoor]

Re:

Pinot easily the most handsome gc boyo in our era. No contest at all.

Ivan the Terrible says hi.

 

[mavmav]

Re: Re:

I'm getting a little nervous for this. I so want it to be an epic stage, but at the same time I'd love the gaps to be reduced, making the ITT still meaningful.

Don't know what to expect. Would've been better to have Nibali with 2-3 minutes gap. With the current GC I'm not sure anybody would benefit from attacking early.

On the other hand having a fit Tom in the main group at the bottom of Foza would be bad for all the other GC contenders. It's hard to think thay can take 2 minutes until the finish.

But is it better for the other 5 riders to have 1 or 2 of them 2 minutes ahead at the bottom of the last climb? Quintana is here to win the Giro. You're still acting like everyone is here to make Dumoulin lose. "the other GC" contenders" are 5 individuals. They're not here to make sure one of them wins. They're here to win themselves. Before today they all wanted to crack Dumoulin and then fight it out between them. There is no time left for the latter anymore. They'll all hope he cracks, but they can't let one of them take minutes hoping that would make it happen. They might not win if they cross the line with Dumoulin, but they're also not winning if on of the other guys takes 2 minutes at the finish line.

Dumoulin is not in pink anymore, he bears no responsibility to lead the race. All he has to do is follow his competitors, and his competitors will have to race each other just as hard as they have to race Tom. It would have been better for Dumoulin to not lose the time he lost yesterday. But from a race tactic standpoint he's actually in an easier situation now.

Nobody was here to make Domoulin loose but to win the Giro. This is not possible if Nairo, Nibs and Pinot finish with more or less the same time gap to Tom. On the other hand if Tom is out of the picture, with similar gaps at the end of the stage, the other three have each the chance to win it in the last TT.

That's literally what I'm saying. They want Tom gone, but Quintana isn't giving Nibali a minute up Monte Grappa to make it happen. Cause then he would lose to Nibali.

 

[Anderis]

This will be an epic stage. I predict that Monfort wii be the most visible rider of all day attacking all the time. There will be some echelons before Monte Grappa and Movistar will force splits with Quintana in the first group. Rolland will decide that half of a mountain stage without him in a break is too much and will bridge from the peloton to a break on descent from Monte Grappa. Roberto Ferrari will be the strongest man from a breakaway and only Dombrowski will be able to follow him on the last climb and outsprint him for the stage win in the final kilometer.

 

[Hellyea]

Re:

Movistar will force splits with Quintana in the first group.

Based on the history facts, this is not gonna happen

 

[Red Rick]

When do the first streams start?

 

[Orbit501]

What a shame that on a weekend and such a crucial stage that we don't get live coverage right from the off. I want to see the breaks forming again.

 

[hammerthaim]

Anything but flat after that brutal climb. Gaps could be huge. Expect cracks, big ones.

 

[cellardoor]

Re:

When do the first streams start?

Talking-heads etc has already started on Rai. Believe proper coverage starts in around 45 mins.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Pinot easily the most handsome gc boyo in our era. No contest at all.

Flo will argue that in this contest, the second place is Pinot's only possibility

No, Berto obviously goes above everyone, he is <3 but not the most handsome. For me Ivan wins, Tibo is the cute boy-next-door. He looks like a puppy. Did you know he has pet sheep?

 

[cellardoor]

Tom was asked at the start if he struggled in the heat. He said no, he normally likes the heat - just had bad legs.