Giro d'Italia 2017 STAGE 21: Monza – Milano 29.3 km ITT

[Dazed and Confused]

Tom or Pinot please (GC win).
This will be a nail biter methinks.

 

[Squire]

Jos van Emden will win this bike race.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Will it be windy ? Windy conditions will benefit the bigger riders.

This is Milan. There is no wind - ever.

The other riders need Dumoulin to put in a performance like he did in Qatar last year. However, that is extremely, extremely unlikely because of a huge number of reasons. Either that, or like last year's Giro, but once again, hugely different circumstances.

 

[Anderis]

Re:

My wish for the overall GC:
1. Dumoulin
2. Zakarin
3. Pinot
Not completely unrealistic but I expect Nibali to save a podium spot TBH.

and major tom would get his wish.......................

TBH I had exactly the same thought when I was watching Nairo and Vicenzo refusing to take pulls on stage 18. If they don't care about finishing on the podium, let it be and let the other guys take those spots then.

 

[Escarabajo]

The only rider who can beat Dumoulin is Dumoulin. Barring any disaster I don't see any other outcome other than him in pink.

The rest is up for grabs and not clear.

 

[Escarabajo]

I don't understand why so many people think that Nairo will lose his podium spot. It's possible but he only lost 46 seconds to Nibali and 11 seconds to Pinot in the first TT which was 10 kilometers longer.
Dumoulin should be pretty safe, he can only lose it if he has a really bad day. The rest should be incredibly thrilling though

Because he's looked shot for the last three days

And the rest have looked wonderful, right?

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Awkward phrasing, but what previous TT is Dumoulin's most-fatigued? He had been chilling before last years final TDF TT, and the '15 Vuelta TT came before the last week of mountains?

Anyone have an idea?

 

[rehy90]

It is funny, if there was no natural break, Dumoulin would win this giro by 2-3 minutes. If he looses it tomorrow, it will be the most expensive sh*t ever.

 

[markene2]

I actually think Nibali will take the pink tomorrow

 

[Brullnux]

I don't understand why so many people think that Nairo will lose his podium spot. It's possible but he only lost 46 seconds to Nibali and 11 seconds to Pinot in the first TT which was 10 kilometers longer.
Dumoulin should be pretty safe, he can only lose it if he has a really bad day. The rest should be incredibly thrilling though

Because he's looked shot for the last three days

And the rest have looked wonderful, right?

He's looked especially shot, considering that is supposedly his favoured terrain. I can't imagine his TT will be strong.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I actually think Nibali will take the pink tomorrow

That is a probability knowing that he is riding in Italy. Strange things has happened in Italy over the years.

 

[May0maniac]

I don't think that Nibali will win the race, he's need a decent amount of helicopter support (oh boy, wouldn't that be a great was to celebate the 100th Giro?), but overall it's hard to tell. Tom could be toast after 3 hard stages, but the same could happen to any of the other top guys, it's really hard to predict. A Pinot win would be pretty awesome. I don't know what to make out of Zakarin's TT skills, he has done some great ones and a few really bad ones.

 

[Escarabajo]

I don't understand why so many people think that Nairo will lose his podium spot. It's possible but he only lost 46 seconds to Nibali and 11 seconds to Pinot in the first TT which was 10 kilometers longer.
Dumoulin should be pretty safe, he can only lose it if he has a really bad day. The rest should be incredibly thrilling though

Because he's looked shot for the last three days

And the rest have looked wonderful, right?

He's looked especially shot, considering that is supposedly his favoured terrain. I can't imagine his TT will be strong.

Fair enough!

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Over the past couple of days people have been saying that Nibali and Quintana don't really care about 2nd, 3rd place etc, only 1st, so it makes me wonder why they would bother putting any effort in tomorrow. Surely Quintana is delusional to think he can stay within a minute of TD and Nibali no doubt will have loads of motor pacing and get disqualified. :lol:

1st TD
2nd Pinot
3rd Zakarin

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Hardly anybody has faith in Pinot? I think he will push Dumoulin a lot closer than many people expect.

 

[Gloin22]

Re:

Hardly anybody has faith in Pinot? I think he will push Dumoulin a lot closer than many people expect.

Based on his first TT, hell no. Even after 2 weeks, Dumoulin shape looks solid and Pinot while definitely improved and should do much better shouldn't come remotely close

 

[Brullnux]

Over the past couple of days people have been saying that Nibali and Quintana don't really care about 2nd, 3rd place etc, only 1st, so it makes me wonder why they would bother putting any effort in tomorrow. Surely Quintana is delusional to think he can stay within a minute of TD and Nibali no doubt will have loads of motor pacing and get disqualified. :lol:

1st TD
2nd Pinot
3rd Zakarin

I don't think you can get disqualified for being motor paced by a 'neutral' car. And both of them will obviously give it their all.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Hardly anybody has faith in Pinot? I think he will push Dumoulin a lot closer than many people expect.

Based on his first TT, hell no. Even after 2 weeks, Dumoulin shape looks solid and Pinot while definitely improved and should do much better shouldn't come remotely close

Based on his first TT: I wouldn't base anything on his first TT. After a rest day, the whole team under-performed: Ludvigsson 94th, Reichenbach 98th, yikes. Not that I think that Tibopino can defend his advantage: ten seconds are just not (even close to being) enough.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Re: Re:

Hardly anybody has faith in Pinot? I think he will push Dumoulin a lot closer than many people expect.

Based on his first TT, hell no. Even after 2 weeks, Dumoulin shape looks solid and Pinot while definitely improved and should do much better shouldn't come remotely close

The first TT isn't a reliable reference for Pinot though.

My instinct says Pinot will do a great TT and Dumoulin might just do an OK one, but we'll see tomorrow.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Dumoulin is now all but guaranteed an overall win, but the lower podium spots could go to any of the four of Quintana, Nibali, Pinot and Zakarin. Based solely on form shown during the last 2-3 days, I would pick Pinot and Zakarin over Quintana and Nibali.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re:

Awkward phrasing, but what previous TT is Dumoulin's most-fatigued? He had been chilling before last years final TDF TT, and the '15 Vuelta TT came before the last week of mountains?

Anyone have an idea?

I cannot say in what extent fatigue affects an elite TTer in the ITT but my guess is moderately/slightly.
Tom Dumoulin had been chilling before the Megeve half-MTT in last year TDF, while Froome was fighting for positions every day and even doing Finhaut Emosson and running for GC one day prior. Still didn't prevent Froome from winning the TT which was tailor made from him.
In the same manner Big Mig and many other GC TTers used to beat their TT rivals who weren't running for GC and chilling the days prior.

Fatigue won't prevent Tom D from doing half an hour maximum effort in the saddle tomorrow IMO.

 

[WildspokeJoe]

Shades of '89?

TD deserves the win. He rode brilliantly in the mountains cutting his losses and riding intelligently.
Quintana will surprise in the TT but finish 3rd
Nibs will finish second.
Pinot won today so his 4th place will be an excellent result for him.
Zakarin will round out the top 5.

 

[luckyboy]

Pinot would be great but it's not going to happen with that gap.

Such a boring result that someone can dominate time trials and hang on in the mountains to win a Grand Tour. Too many TT kms

 

[mavmav]

Re:

Pinot would be great but it's not going to happen with that gap.

Such a boring result that someone can dominate time trials and hang on in the mountains to win a Grand Tour. Too many TT kms

Que?

Dumoulin won a mountain stage. He took more time there on Pinot then Pinot took today... And Dumoulin finished the toughest climb of the Giro together with Pinot.

If people don't like Dumoulin that's perfectly fine, but let's not rewrite history and act like Dumoulin was hanging on for dear life for 3 weeks whenever the road went uphill and he's only winning because of the TT.

Poopgate cost him his first ITT advantage and he's still within a minute of the lead after a brutal 3rd week...

 

[lenric]

Re:

Pinot would be great but it's not going to happen with that gap.

Such a boring result that someone can dominate time trials and hang on in the mountains to win a Grand Tour. Too many TT kms

2010: 36 kms of ITT
2011: 40
2012: 37
2013: 75
2014: 67
2015: 60
2016: 65
2017: 70

In some of these years there was also a TTT.