Giro d'Italia 2018 - 2nd restday: Winning margin for Yates?

[Valv.Piti]

I dno. Im not ready to declare him the winner of the race, Im not before the last mountain stage really. But there isn't an super obvious contender at this point I must admit.

I hope he wins tho. I wasn't really high on him before, but in contrast to his brother, he has always been a daring and attacking rider (apart from last year's Tour). And today's attack was just something out of this world, full Riccardo Riccó attack in the drops in the maglia rosa. That was a pretty special moment and something that I will remember from this Giro, almost something from another era. And contrary to Steven K, he has already managed to win 3 stages (could easily have won 4), so if he crashes, it isn't completely useless.

 

[EroicaStradeBianche]

Talent or not this guy has won 4 stages in 2 weeks. Not even Pantani in 99 looked so dominant

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yates is strong. But i feel people are selling Dumoulin short when they expect the ITT gap to be within 2 minutes for sure. It's surely possible, but it could be quite a bit more as well, i think. I mean, this guy has put 2 minutes on the worlds best timetrialers in long ITT in the past. The fact that it's just after a restday is in his favor, since he's been suffering more the past two days than Yates has. If he starts like a rocket, maybe Yates will feel the pressure and blow himself up trying to keep the gap small, or start choking. Interesting battle to say the least.

I still think Dumoulin is very much in this. We'll know just if and how much on Tuesday.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

I dno. Im not ready to declare him the winner of the race, Im not before the last mountain stage really. But there isn't an super obvious contender at this point I must admit.

I hope he wins tho. I wasn't really high on him before, but in contrast to his brother, he has always been a daring and attacking rider (apart from last year's Tour). And today's attack was just something out of this world, full Riccardo Riccó attack in the drops in the maglia rosa. That was a pretty special moment and something that I will remember from this Giro, almost something from another era. And contrary to Steven K, he has already managed to win 3 stages (could easily have won 4), so if he crashes, it isn't completely useless.

Well Steven K had the lack of explosiveness Yates had, but was super strong otherwise. Chaves was faster a couple of times and Foliforiv came out of nowhere in the mountain ITT (i'd say clinic stuff, but other discussion).

 

[JosephK]

Re:

I dno. Im not ready to declare him the winner of the race, Im not before the last mountain stage really. But there isn't an super obvious contender at this point I must admit.

I hope he wins tho. I wasn't really high on him before, but in contrast to his brother, he has always been a daring and attacking rider (apart from last year's Tour). And today's attack was just something out of this world, full Riccardo Riccó attack in the drops in the maglia rosa. That was a pretty special moment and something that I will remember from this Giro, almost something from another era. And contrary to Steven K, he has already managed to win 3 stages (could easily have won 4), so if he crashes, it isn't completely useless.

Yates is gonna surprise some folks on Tuesday. I think he beats Rohan Dennis in the TT. :lol:

 

[Jancouver]

4+ minutes.

Tom will crack in the 3rd week ... Pinot to finish 2nd and Puff Daddy 3rd.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I dno. Im not ready to declare him the winner of the race, Im not before the last mountain stage really. But there isn't an super obvious contender at this point I must admit.

I hope he wins tho. I wasn't really high on him before, but in contrast to his brother, he has always been a daring and attacking rider (apart from last year's Tour). And today's attack was just something out of this world, full Riccardo Riccó attack in the drops in the maglia rosa. That was a pretty special moment and something that I will remember from this Giro, almost something from another era. And contrary to Steven K, he has already managed to win 3 stages (could easily have won 4), so if he crashes, it isn't completely useless.

Well Steven K had the lack of explosiveness Yates had, but was super strong otherwise. Chaves was faster a couple of times and Foliforiv came out of nowhere in the mountain ITT (i'd say clinic stuff, but other discussion).

Of course, Kruijswijk had 3 chances before he crashed. He wasn't going to win a 4-up sprint in Corvara, he should've won the ITT but didn't cause sputnik and in Andalo, he could perhaps have tried to gap everyone, but doubt he is getting rid of Valverde on such a day.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Talent or not this guy has won 4 stages in 2 weeks. Not even Pantani in 99 looked so dominant

3 stages....still good.

 

[FjPavels]

Re:

I had to pick "He won't win" since that is the most likely of the listed possibilities. Of course that doesn't mean that it is most likely that he doesn't win, which I think he will do.

Maybe i am missing something .. but this does not make any sense to me at all....

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re: Re:

I had to pick "He won't win" since that is the most likely of the listed possibilities. Of course that doesn't mean that it is most likely that he doesn't win, which I think he will do.

Maybe i am missing something .. but this does not make any sense to me at all....

It doesn't, lol. Either he'll win, and you get to choose anywhere from 0 seconds to infinity (4+), or he doesn't win. He still think's he'll win, but somehow the options ranging from 0 seconds to infinity don't quite correspond to how much time he thinks Yates will have on the runner up. The only possible reasoning would be that he thinks he won't win, which he says he does not. *Brain explodes*

 

[shalgo]

Re: Re:

I had to pick "He won't win" since that is the most likely of the listed possibilities. Of course that doesn't mean that it is most likely that he doesn't win, which I think he will do.

Maybe i am missing something .. but this does not make any sense to me at all....

There are 9 different winning margins in the poll and 1 option where he does not win. Imagine that you think there is an 81% chance that Yates will win, but that each margin of victory is equally likely. You will therefore think that there is a 9% chance of each winning option being correct, but a 19% chance of the losing option being correct: you would therefore consider the losing option the most likely of the choices, even though you believe Yates will win.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re: Re:

I had to pick "He won't win" since that is the most likely of the listed possibilities. Of course that doesn't mean that it is most likely that he doesn't win, which I think he will do.

Maybe i am missing something .. but this does not make any sense to me at all....

There are 9 different winning margins in the poll and 1 option where he does not win. Imagine that you think there is an 81% chance that Yates will win, but that each margin of victory is equally likely. You will therefore think that there is a 9% chance of each winning option being correct, but a 19% chance of the losing option being correct: you would therefore consider the losing option the most likely of the choices, even though you believe Yates will win.

He says he thinks Yates will win. Either he'll win, or he won't. He won't win for 81%. That means any of the time margins are more likely than the option of him not winning.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I hope for a revival of the whole AStana team after this rest day (They usually do quite well after the lat rest day in the giro) to create some havoc. STill, probably 3+ min in the end

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

I had to pick "He won't win" since that is the most likely of the listed possibilities. Of course that doesn't mean that it is most likely that he doesn't win, which I think he will do.

Maybe i am missing something .. but this does not make any sense to me at all....

There are 9 different winning margins in the poll and 1 option where he does not win. Imagine that you think there is an 81% chance that Yates will win, but that each margin of victory is equally likely. You will therefore think that there is a 9% chance of each winning option being correct, but a 19% chance of the losing option being correct: you would therefore consider the losing option the most likely of the choices, even though you believe Yates will win.

He says he thinks Yates will win. Either he'll win, or he won't. He won't win for 81%. That means any of the time margins are more likely than the option of him not winning.

tobydawq made perfect sense.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Yates
Dumo
Pinot

Pozzo just doesn't have that bit extra, which I expect from Pinot in the 3rd week. Lopez will lose too much in the TT

This.

I voted that Yates won't win...don't believe in miracles...so I contradict myself . If legit, Yates deserves to win.

 

[Koronin]

Truthfully I can't make up my mind on which is most likely. It is entirely possible he could crash and loose the podium like Steven K did.

 

[The Barb]

Re:

I had to pick "He won't win" since that is the most likely of the listed possibilities. Of course that doesn't mean that it is most likely that he doesn't win, which I think he will do.

My thoughts exactly.

I still think it will be pretty close. It's not impossible the four bonus seconds he gifted to Chaves could be important.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I had to pick "He won't win" since that is the most likely of the listed possibilities. Of course that doesn't mean that it is most likely that he doesn't win, which I think he will do.

Maybe i am missing something .. but this does not make any sense to me at all....

It doesn't, lol. Either he'll win, and you get to choose anywhere from 0 seconds to infinity (4+), or he doesn't win. He still think's he'll win, but somehow the options ranging from 0 seconds to infinity don't quite correspond to how much time he thinks Yates will have on the runner up. The only possible reasoning would be that he thinks he won't win, which he says he does not. *Brain explodes*

Very disappointing for someone with your name, I must say.

I was intentionally being a bit cryptic but if we say that there is an 80% chance of Yates winning, and the remaining probability is evenly distributed between each of the winning margins, that would put each winning margin at approximately 9%, which makes him not winning the possibility with the highest probability.

Edit: Actually, shalgo explained it just like I did, which didn't seem to help.

 

[Pantani_lives]

0-29: 5%
30-59: 10%
1.00-1.29: 15%
1.30-1.59: 15%
2.00-2.29: 10%
2.30-2.59: 5%
3.00-3.29: 5%
3.30-3.59: 5%
4.00-...: 10%
Doesn't win: 20%

So indeed "He doesn't win" is the most likely option.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Re:

4+ minutes.

Tom will crack in the 3rd week ... Pinot to finish 2nd and Puff Daddy 3rd.

Have to agree with Pinot 2nd and Froome 3rd but I don't think Yates will finish in excess of 4 mins. Maybe 1.5 to 2 mins. I think Froome is gonna claw back quite a bit of time in the TT and then have 1 good mountain stage to get him on the podium. Tom I think is gonna crack in the mountains, he ain't been climbing that well, but then again the rest haven't been lighting the sky up with fireworks, just Yates. Pozzo gonna lose out in the TT and Pinot will just do what he has to do to get that 2nd place.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

0-29: 5%
30-59: 10%
1.00-1.29: 15%
1.30-1.59: 15%
2.00-2.29: 10%
2.30-2.59: 5%
3.00-3.29: 5%
3.30-3.59: 5%
4.00-...: 10%
Doesn't win: 20%

So indeed "He doesn't win" is the most likely option.

It’s a false setup in those terms, though. It lumps all the losing margins in one column, whereas to truly reflect the range of possibilities it ought to present his losing margins in 30” increments also.

By your percentages above, the over-under is about the 1.30 mark. And I think most observers would agree at this stage a 1-2 minute win is the most likely individual scenario.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

I had to pick "He won't win" since that is the most likely of the listed possibilities. Of course that doesn't mean that it is most likely that he doesn't win, which I think he will do.

Maybe i am missing something .. but this does not make any sense to me at all....

It doesn't, lol. Either he'll win, and you get to choose anywhere from 0 seconds to infinity (4+), or he doesn't win. He still think's he'll win, but somehow the options ranging from 0 seconds to infinity don't quite correspond to how much time he thinks Yates will have on the runner up. The only possible reasoning would be that he thinks he won't win, which he says he does not. *Brain explodes*

Very disappointing for someone with your name, I must say.

I was intentionally being a bit cryptic but if we say that there is an 80% chance of Yates winning, and the remaining probability is evenly distributed between each of the winning margins, that would put each winning margin at approximately 9%, which makes him not winning the possibility with the highest probability.

Edit: Actually, shalgo explained it just like I did, which didn't seem to help.

Well, it does make perfect sense if you treat all wrongs as equal and the voting as optimizing your chance of guessing the correct answer.

I think though that one is almost right if one is only 30'' off his winning margin, whereas if he wins comfortably while one voted that he would lose, one would be way off.

More importantly, I see such a poll not so much a competition of who guesses the correct answer (with the current forum software we cannot even see who voted what), but as a means to reflect the popular opinion of just how comfortable his situation is. We could have had a vote again of who would win the Giro, but that would be a tad boring and meaningless at this point.

The losing option is there to cover all guesses; but if you were asked to estimate how big a margin he would win with in the case that you think he'd win, before seeing any of the options in the poll, what would your estimate be? Secondarily, what poll option would cover that?

 

[Oude Geuze]

Re: Re:

I had to pick "He won't win" since that is the most likely of the listed possibilities. Of course that doesn't mean that it is most likely that he doesn't win, which I think he will do.

Maybe i am missing something .. but this does not make any sense to me at all....

It doesn't, lol. Either he'll win, and you get to choose anywhere from 0 seconds to infinity (4+), or he doesn't win. He still think's he'll win, but somehow the options ranging from 0 seconds to infinity don't quite correspond to how much time he thinks Yates will have on the runner up. The only possible reasoning would be that he thinks he won't win, which he says he does not. *Brain explodes*

Very disappointing for someone with your name, I must say.

I was intentionally being a bit cryptic but if we say that there is an 80% chance of Yates winning, and the remaining probability is evenly distributed between each of the winning margins, that would put each winning margin at approximately 9%, which makes him not winning the possibility with the highest probability.

Edit: Actually, shalgo explained it just like I did, which didn't seem to help.

Are you serious? You have made up all the probabilities for both winning/loosing and each win margin and then tell us not winning is the most probable out of all the options as if it means something. Who cares if you are right in your own thought experiment? The question is, will he win, and by how much?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Ok I have to break the dumb rhetoric going on here with the "Dumoulin isn't climbing well" people.

The dude is in front of Pinot, Pozzovivo, Lopez, Froome and many other reputable climber. This is after just what, 10km of TT and.. how many mountain top finishes exactly? 6? 7?
Are you guys blind or something? Only Yates is ET and far ahead of him. The rest are STILL behind him. He's been one of the most consistent climbers in the race..

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Ok I have to break the dumb rhetoric going on here with the "Dumoulin isn't climbing well" people.

The dude is in front of Pinot, Pozzovivo, Lopez, Froome and many other reputable climber. This is after just what, 10km of TT and.. how many mountain top finishes exactly? 6? 7?
Are you guys blind or something? Only Yates is ET and far ahead of him. The rest are STILL behind him. He's been one of the most consistent climbers in the race..

It's definitely better than the last 2 mountain stages of last year, but I don't think he's quite as sharp as the 2nd week from last year. Last year he could bring back attacks at 50km to go and then put the hurt on on the final climb. Now he's hanging on for dear life.

He's good. He's not extroardinary, which is what needs on a route skewed towards climbers.