Giro d'Italia 2018 - 2nd restday: Winning margin for Yates?

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Last year the competition was less good.

Wether that means Yates is better than Nibali and Quintana or that Nibali and Quintana really messed up their peak, I'll leave that in the middle

 

[Pantani Attacks]

4mins+ easily. Should podium the TT at the very least and will put minutes more into everyone else on the rest of the mountains.

 

[Singer01]

With the assumptin that Yates is about to win, that would make it 3 in a row for British cyclists (with i assume Froome still being a good bet for the Tour if he gets his prep right, Zoncolan shows he can still have the legs, and i expect a top TT from him as well).
What is the longest run of consecutive victories by riders from the same nation? Spain won all 3 in 08, but other than that i can't remember a really long run of dominance.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Last year the competition was less good.

Wether that means Yates is better than Nibali and Quintana or that Nibali and Quintana really messed up their peak, I'll leave that in the middle

Both Pozzo and Pinot seem to be about where they were last year. Dumoulin was better than both uphill until the last two stages last year. This year he isn't.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Last year the competition was less good.

Wether that means Yates is better than Nibali and Quintana or that Nibali and Quintana really messed up their peak, I'll leave that in the middle

The latter.

But last year he was riding Pozzovivo and Pinot off his wheel in the first 18 stages. It makes sense that he'd be missing a tiny bit with the spring he's had. Getting a podium would be a solid result.

 

[Pantani Attacks]

Anquetil-Anquetil-Anquetil-Anquetil-Poulidor 63-64 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour, Vuelta

Indurain-Mauri-Indurain-Indurain 91-92 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour

Fignon-Caritoux-Hinault-Hinault 84-85 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour

 

[Netserk]

Merckx-Merckx-Merckx-Merckx 1972-1973 Giro-Tour-Vuelta-Giro

Anquetil-Anquetil-Anquetil-Anquetil-Poulidor 63-64 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour, Vuelta

Indurain-Mauri-Indurain-Indurain 91-92 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour

Fignon-Caritoux-Hinault-Hinault 84-85 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour

The Vuelta was in the spring then.

 

[Stella0596]

Re:

With the assumptin that Yates is about to win, that would make it 3 in a row for British cyclists (with i assume Froome still being a good bet for the Tour if he gets his prep right, Zoncolan shows he can still have the legs, and i expect a top TT from him as well).
What is the longest run of consecutive victories by riders from the same nation? Spain won all 3 in 08, but other than that i can't remember a really long run of dominance.

I think Spain is most likely to win that one, since the Vuelta has not been of interest that much for great cyclists (for a long time).

 

[Singer01]

Re:

Merckx-Merckx-Merckx-Merckx 1972-1973 Giro-Tour-Vuelta-Giro

Anquetil-Anquetil-Anquetil-Anquetil-Poulidor 63-64 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour, Vuelta

Indurain-Mauri-Indurain-Indurain 91-92 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour

Fignon-Caritoux-Hinault-Hinault 84-85 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour

The Vuelta was in the spring then.

Was it always before, always after the Giro back then, or did it vary year by year, i found the above runs from Wiki, but couldn't find exactly when the vuelta used to occur.

 

[Netserk]

Afaik, before 1995 it was always Vuelta-Giro-Tour.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

4mins+ easily. Should podium the TT at the very least and will put minutes more into everyone else on the rest of the mountains.

Top 3 in a flat TT is very unlikely.

Top 10 is a realistic goal. I think he'll finish somewhere between 6th and 10th.

 

[vedrafjord]

Re: Re:

I had to pick "He won't win" since that is the most likely of the listed possibilities. Of course that doesn't mean that it is most likely that he doesn't win, which I think he will do.

Maybe i am missing something .. but this does not make any sense to me at all....

There are 9 different winning margins in the poll and 1 option where he does not win. Imagine that you think there is an 81% chance that Yates will win, but that each margin of victory is equally likely. You will therefore think that there is a 9% chance of each winning option being correct, but a 19% chance of the losing option being correct: you would therefore consider the losing option the most likely of the choices, even though you believe Yates will win.

But what the original question is asking is: "Yates' winning/losing margin is a variable with some kind of continuous distribution. Which of these (unevenly sized) buckets does some sensible feature like peak/mean/median of the distribution fall into?", not "sample from the distribution and tell me the bucket that has the most samples" which isn't very useful in this case when the buckets are different sizes.

 

[vedrafjord]

Anyway I don't think it's going to be a Nibali 2014 Tour-style blowout. He will lose time in the time trial, and week 3 of a GT that he's been relentlessly attacking in and is now leading is unknown territory for him, and his team are likely to play it safe to an extent.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2018 - 2nd restday: Winning margin for Yat

Considering the fact that our predictions are always wrong, 3'30"-3'59", with the least votes, must be the right answer .

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2018 - 2nd restday: Winning margin for Yat

I just want to mention that there is a decent chance for rain next Friday or in other words, we could see a muddy Finestre. So we might get some very chaotic racing which could turn things upside down.

 

[Climbing]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2018 - 2nd restday: Winning margin for Yat

I just want to mention that there is a decent chance for rain next Friday or in other words, we could see a muddy Finestre. So we might get some very chaotic racing which could turn things upside down.

Or more likely a Finestre not raced upon.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Merckx-Merckx-Merckx-Merckx 1972-1973 Giro-Tour-Vuelta-Giro

Anquetil-Anquetil-Anquetil-Anquetil-Poulidor 63-64 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour, Vuelta

Indurain-Mauri-Indurain-Indurain 91-92 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour

Fignon-Caritoux-Hinault-Hinault 84-85 Tour, Vuelta, Giro, Tour

The Vuelta was in the spring then.

Was it always before, always after the Giro back then, or did it vary year by year, i found the above runs from Wiki, but couldn't find exactly when the vuelta used to occur.

Always Vuelta/Giro/Tour.

Ireland had a run of 3; Roche won Giro and Tour in 87, followed by Kelly in the Vuelta 88. This after Kelly had to abandon the 87 Vuelta with a saddle sore while in the lead.

Those were ireland’s only ever GT wins, and no Irish rider has come close to a podium since, with only Roche’s son getting a day in the Red jersey at the Vuelta a couple of years back.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2018 - 2nd restday: Winning margin for Yat

I just want to mention that there is a decent chance for rain next Friday or in other words, we could see a muddy Finestre. So we might get some very chaotic racing which could turn things upside down.

Or more likely a Finestre not raced upon.

That would pretty much ruin the Giro for me. After the cancellation of Crostis they at least had to race probably an even harder stage the next day!

 

[Merckx index]

Another way of framing the OP is: How many more TT km would Dumo need to be favored? 50? 60? 75? Suppose the final stage was a flat ITT in or near Rome. How long would it need to be?

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Another way of framing the OP is: How many more TT km would Dumo need to be favored? 50? 60? 75? Suppose the final stage was a flat ITT in or near Rome. How long would it need to be?

There's not one number for that. Imagine it's a very long one and Yates just takes off into the sunset on Colle delle Finestre and 60kms aren't gonna save Dumoulin then either.

 

[SafeBet]

So I will make two different predictions for the final week, a conservative one and a bold one.

Conservative: Yates loses around 1'30" in the ITT, keeps the jersey, extends his lead by winning in Pratonevoso and then Haig/Nieve/Kreuziger reel back any attack from more than 5 km in the final two mountain stages. Pinot and Pozzovivo keep climbing roughly on the same level and Pinot finishes third (bonus + TT gain). Lopez wins the white jersey. Froome tries a couple attacks but Mitchelton neutralises him.

Final GC

Yates
Dumoulin 1'30"
Pinot 3'30"
Pozzovivo 4'00"
Froome 5'00
Lopez 6'00"
Carapaz 6'30"


Bold: Yates suffers after the rest day, loses 2'30" in the ITT. Tommy wins in Pratonevoso but Froome is a close second, Yates loses another 30 seconds.
The next day Froome goes as soon as the sterrato starts on Finestre, peloton explodes, Carapaz and Bilbao bonk, Oomen starts pulling but can't close the gap. Froome has a teammate who helps him in the valley after Sestriere. Come the Jafferau Dumoulin starts chasing on his own with Pinot, Lopez and Betancur on his wheel, Yates fades. Froome wins, Lopez loses a minute, Betancur and Pinot 1'30", Dumoulin 2', Pozzo and Yates 3'.
Stage 20 is held in a rainy day, Pinot feels as he has never before and attacks on Tsecore, Froome hasn't recovered from the day before and is dropped, as is Yates. At the bottom of St. Pantaleon only Pinot, Dumoulin, Lopez and Betancur are in the group. Pinot keeps attacking until he drops Dumoulin, who has to chase on his own because Betancur and Lopez don't help him. Tommy cracks on the way to Cervinia, Betancur is told there's a bandeja paisa at the finish line and attacks like it's 2013 all over again. He catches Pinot and outsprints him to win the stage. Il Grandissimo Tibopino wins the Giro. Tonton hosts a party for all the forum member with champagne flowing from Pinot-themed fountains in his garden.

Final GC

Pinot
The rest (I'll be too drunk with champagne to remember the gaps).

 

[Durden93]

The only thing that makes me believe in Dumoulin's chances is that we don't know how Yates will respond to the rest day. But even then, the tough mountain days come a few days after the rest day so he should be able to recover. I still think Dumoulin will take pink today, but barely.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The most likely option will come true. Wasn't there a poll like this for Steven K. two years ago? Polls like this are clearly jinxing it.

 

[DFA123]

This poll looks ridiculous now.

I wonder if Yates is still regretting giving those four seconds to Chaves? They could have been useful in his battle for 17th place.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re:

This poll looks ridiculous now.

I wonder if Yates is still regretting giving those four seconds to Chaves? They could have been useful in his battle for 17th place.

:lol: :lol: