Giro d'Italia 2018 stage 16: Trento – Rovereto 34.2 km ITT

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2018 stage 16: Trento – Rovereto 34.2 km I

The thing is we have no good reference for Yates.

Last year he lost 1'30 to Froome over 22km, but that was even a TT that should have suited him with a steep climb in it (TDF). Then he lost almost 4 minutes in the Vuelta but he was out of shape there.
Then most other TT's he has ridden have been in small tours, and those have been either shorter or far more hilly than this one.

Even the prologue in this Giro was hilly, technical and hard, not much aero advantage going on there. It's hard to imagine a tiny small guy like Yates doing well in a flat TT, but considering how much better he is than anyone else this Giro it wouldn't surprise me anymore either.

I will say this though, there have been years where Andy Schleck looked fantastic uphill in a GT, and then still lost 2'30 to 3'30 in the TT to guys who didn't look that good.
So it's still a very specific discipline.

Yates could be as good as losing 30 seconds but also as bad as losing 2'30. He did well to gain such a big buffer

 

[Red Rick]

Yea if you know in advance the climbers are stacking up like this you get absolute carnage with 70km of ITTs. But you don't know. Whatever. I think it's a bit on the low side, but I think competitiveness is more important than 'balance' and with Froome and Dumoulin both going there one would normally expect that with that amount of ITT the rest wouldn't be in contention.

 

[Jspear]

With Yates form I expect him to lose around a min. I’ve forgotten about Dennis. Surely he’ll be back into the top 10....maybe 5th or 6th even.

 

[Rollthedice]

Dumoulin in pink. Froome's second resurrection brings him within seconds of the podium. Yates to disappoint Kirby. Aru, if he arrived, to be shown on TV during the whole TT.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

This might be a good reference:

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-a-espana/2015/stage-17

Valverde lost only a minute. Quintana 1'30, Aru 1'58, a tired chaves 2'40
So worst case scenario Yates loses about what Chaves loses. But he might as well be Valverdesque in this form

 

[Bavarianrider]

Re:

This might be a good reference:

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-a-espana/2015/stage-17

Valverde lost only a minute. Quintana 1'30, Aru 1'58, a tired chaves 2'40
So worst case scenario Yates loses about what Chaves loses. But he might as well be Valverdesque in this form

It was really technical and far from flat in the last third, though.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

This might be a good reference:

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-a-espana/2015/stage-17

Valverde lost only a minute. Quintana 1'30, Aru 1'58, a tired chaves 2'40
So worst case scenario Yates loses about what Chaves loses. But he might as well be Valverdesque in this form

It was really technical and far from flat in the last third, though.

Yeah, Aru only lost like 15 seconds in the last part.

 

[SafeBet]

I don't even know if it's better for Dumoulin to gain enough time to take the jersey. Probably not.

 

[Velolover2]

What is most likely?

Dumoulin to catch Pozzovivo.
Froome to catch Bennett.
Dennis to catch O'Connor.
Pinot to catch Lopez.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Re:

This might be a good reference:

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-a-espana/2015/stage-17

Valverde lost only a minute. Quintana 1'30, Aru 1'58, a tired chaves 2'40
So worst case scenario Yates loses about what Chaves loses. But he might as well be Valverdesque in this form

Both brothers seem to be round about Quintana when going decently in TTs, occasionally above. Also fair to assume Simon will do a little better than we've seen before, but after a rest day, who knows.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

What is most likely?

Dumoulin to catch Pozzovivo.
Froome to catch Bennett.
Dennis to catch O'Connor.
Pinot to catch Lopez.

(in which order) from most to least :razz:

 

[Jancouver]

1. Tom
2. Rohan 45 sec
3. Puff Daddy 1 min
4. Simon 1:15 min
5 ... does not matter

 

[hfer07]

The stage win is between TD, Rohan & the Magic Kenyan. Marvel SimonY may end up losing a mere minute if his ET form continues....

 

[classicomano]

This TT suddenly doesn't feel so important anymore.

 

[Sestriere]

Can Tony Martin roll back the years? I think he has a chance. Most other favourites are racing for the GC and should be more tired than him.

 

[The Barb]

Re:

What is most likely?

Dumoulin to catch Pozzovivo.
Froome to catch Bennett.
Dennis to catch O'Connor.
Pinot to catch Lopez.

Good question. As a NZer I don't like to say it but I suspect Froome to catch Bennett is the most likely.

Least likely is Pinot to catch Lopez. I think Lopez might go a bit better than people suspect but perhaps I'm still giving too much weight to his excellent (but now quite distant) Tour De Suisse time trial in 2016, which was quite different to this time trial anyway. But still, without a crash there's no way Pinot comes close to catching Lopez.

 

[Escarabajo]

Yates to Dumoulin

High: 1:30 minutes
Most likely: 1 minute
Minimum: 20 seconds

Dumoulin to win.

 

[Poursuivant]

Re:

What is most likely?

Dumoulin to catch Pozzovivo.
Froome to catch Bennett.
Dennis to catch O'Connor.
Pinot to catch Lopez.

Yates to catch Dumoulin.

 

[Escarabajo]

Does Cyclingnews forums have a plan in place in case Yates beats Dumoulin?

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Does Cyclingnews forums have a plan in place in case Yates beats Dumoulin?

I've just found the "delete forum" button. So emergency measures are in place.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

What is most likely?

Dumoulin to catch Pozzovivo.
Froome to catch Bennett.
Dennis to catch O'Connor.
Pinot to catch Lopez.

Pinot to catch Yates, of course .

Seriously, here's my prediction for the GC guys:

Dumoulin
Froome at 34"
Yates at 1'57"
Pinot at 1'58"
Pozzo at 2'22"
Carapaz at 2'30"
MAL at 2'33"

 

[search]

haven't seen a start list yet, but he Giro usually has 3 minute intervals for the top 15. So that makes it all a bit more difficult

 

[vedrafjord]

Re:

If Dumo wins this Giro thanks to his strong TT then the entire race has been a joke and a farce. He hasn't shown enough in the mountains (yet) to deserve overall victory. We all know who deserves to win this bike race.

As I said in the stage thread, the mere presence of Dumoulin has animated the race because it has made Yates go all out for seconds in every uphill finish he can. What has happened too often lately in stage design is "TTs are boring" > minimise TTs > climbers stare at each other until the final 2km of MTFs. This has been a great race so far even if Dumoulin has disappointed a bit compared to last year.

 

[The Barb]

Re: Re:

If Dumo wins this Giro thanks to his strong TT then the entire race has been a joke and a farce. He hasn't shown enough in the mountains (yet) to deserve overall victory. We all know who deserves to win this bike race.

As I said in the stage thread, the mere presence of Dumoulin has animated the race because it has made Yates go all out for seconds in every uphill finish he can. What has happened too often lately in stage design is "TTs are boring" > minimise TTs > climbers stare at each other until the final 2km of MTFs. This has been a great race so far even if Dumoulin has disappointed a bit compared to last year.

I generally like GTs with reasonable significant time trials (though it’s a fine balance) because they force the pure climbers to attack. If there were no time trials in this race then it would have been much less interesting, as Yates could have just ridden conservatively, staying with others until the last kilometre then outkicking them with his superior speed. The attack yesterday would never have happened.

The exception, and where we get the most boring racing, is on those occasions when the best climber is also the best time-trialist (e.g. Armstrong for basically all of his reign and Froome for parts of his). But this is not normal.

This Giro has had a pretty good balance I reckon.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Big Tom in his element and takes 1:30 to 2 minutes on Yates to win the ITT. But it's not enough to win the Giro. Yates is the strongest rider in the race and takes more time in the coming mountain stages.

I think your prediction is about right. Some fans are thinking that strong rides in the mountains translate to TTs. Generally they don't. Dumoulin still has to have at least one good mountain stage but at the moment it's difficult to see him dropping Yates unless Yates bonks or has some bad luck. Be interesting to see what Froome can do. Dennis will be up there of course.