Giro d'Italia 2018 stage 16: Trento – Rovereto 34.2 km ITT

[movingtarget]

Re:

Yea if you know in advance the climbers are stacking up like this you get absolute carnage with 70km of ITTs. But you don't know. Whatever. I think it's a bit on the low side, but I think competitiveness is more important than 'balance' and with Froome and Dumoulin both going there one would normally expect that with that amount of ITT the rest wouldn't be in contention.

I think the TT kms are on the short side but organizers shouldn't be basing parcours on potential outcomes or riders. In that case Indurain may have never won a GT. Every second year i would like to see an increase in TT kms and mix up the TT courses with some mountain TTs and varied terrain. They can always do more with the MTFs as well. The Giro always shows more imagination with their mountains stages and even the intermediate stages. The short Tour stage has become a bit of a cliche. The Vuelta routes are starting to look a bit stale as well.

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Re:

If Dumo wins this Giro thanks to his strong TT then the entire race has been a joke and a farce. He hasn't shown enough in the mountains (yet) to deserve overall victory. We all know who deserves to win this bike race.

As I said in the stage thread, the mere presence of Dumoulin has animated the race because it has made Yates go all out for seconds in every uphill finish he can. What has happened too often lately in stage design is "TTs are boring" > minimise TTs > climbers stare at each other until the final 2km of MTFs. This has been a great race so far even if Dumoulin has disappointed a bit compared to last year.

Tom has ridden this to perfection so far. Just that Yates been so strong, so the reward for his racing so far has not been enough. If not for Yates being in this amazing form he would probably had the lead with over 3 minutes tomorrow. Now the best scenario is probably being leveled with Yates is what he can hope for. Then it will just be if Yates continues to be too strong in the remaining stages or if he fades.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

What is most likely?

Dumoulin to catch Pozzovivo.
Froome to catch Bennett.
Dennis to catch O'Connor.
Pinot to catch Lopez.

Pinot to catch Yates, of course .

Seriously, here's my prediction for the GC guys:

Dumoulin
Froome at 34"
Yates at 1'57"
Pinot at 1'58"
Pozzo at 2'22"
Carapaz at 2'30"
MAL at 2'33"

I think Lopez will beat some of those guys.

 

[Amazinmets87]

What are the odds on Froome? I think he'll be gunning for a 2nd stage due to his G.C aspirations not panning out.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Tommy D will crush...not sure he'll get pink, but I see it being close-ish. But it's just one stage. Yates has shown he's going to take time on TD on every remaining mountain stage (unless something dramatic happens to him).

 

[42x16ss]

If Dumoulin takes pink by 15-20 seconds over Yates that may even work better for Yates. Mitchelton has been riding hard for over a week now, especially Haig, Kreuziger and Juul Jensen. A day or two of less pressure for those guys could be beneficial.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2018 stage 16: Trento – Rovereto 34.2 km I

Since a couple of you enjoyed it yesterday, here it goes....

Rohan Dennis wants a top-10 in this Giro, and Haimar is by his side. His time beats a rusty panzer and Vasil who thought he was Hincapie but he was not. Reichenbach is in the top-10 right now and it's unclear if FDJ played it real. Kirby is confused...Superman,Tarzan,is riding like Jane. Froome is pulling a chicken and falling all over until a kid gives him a tri-cycle. Pedaling a 24X20 he looks good through the first time-check. Carapaz is slow but steady. Pinot looks very dehydrated as he's given bottle after bottle from the team car by Arnaud Demare. Pozzos's family hasn't' been freed since the mafia bet on Aru. He sits at a terrace drinking espressos and watching his phone. Dumoulin is farting more than usual, takes a few breaks, but he's OK. Yates is the last to start and Pantanis his way to no climb. Confused. Dazed: where's the glory? A text message from Adam comes up. The reply from Simon is "Garfunkel you're not in my league!". Simon rules. But Dumoulin is not giving up. He has the goodies and the Gouda. He fights his way to the finish but loses the stage to Tibopino by one second.

The forum erupts. Bans all-over...Mayhem...

 

[Random Direction]

Yates to lose 3 min, bad after the rest day. Tommy D. (Not the American one) goes full beast mode to catch Pozzo. Froome comes third, right after Rohan.

All made up, of course

 

[Vince]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2018 stage 16: Trento – Rovereto 34.2 km I

Oh dear, I have been quite concerned about Tonton's progressively eccentric posts for some while now. However,it seems that the stress and arduous workload of being a mod have finally taken their toll. I have personally been bipolar (manic depressive) for over 18 years, and on the basis that ''it takes one to know one' it is sadly obvious that Tonton has entered a sub-manic phase (technically hypomanic). Unfortunately, he will not have realised that what he has posted about the TT stage was absolute crap. he will almost certainly have thought that he posted a serious in-depth assessment of how the TT will go, from a senior forum member. We must not challenge his assessment, or he could turn aggressive and lose his grip on reality (like Dave Brailsford often does). When discussing technical points with Tonton it is essential, for example. that you agree with the gear ratio that he thinks Dawg will be using on Tuesday. In fact I have inside info that Dawg will actually be using his fixed wheel track bike with a 62gear ratio (but don't tell anyone) just like we used to ride for the spring club events in 1956 - the 'medium gear' TT's were restricted to below 72". Anyway, don't worry about Tonton. I shall send him a pack of my lithium tablets and he'll be back on track in no time.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

What are the odds on Froome? I think he'll be gunning for a 2nd stage due to his G.C aspirations not panning out.

Don't waste your money.
Froome doesn't have it in TT anymore.

Campenaerts or someone else that was able to save themselves the past week.

 

[rghysens]

Yates to loose about a minute on Dumoulin.
Top 3 of the stage: Campenaerts-Dennis-Dumoulin.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Does Cyclingnews forums have a plan in place in case Yates beats Dumoulin?

I think Yates would actually have a reasonable chance of doing so, if there wasn't a rest day today. We saw in the final TT last year that Dumoulin's level dropped considerable after several hard days, and Yates looks so much fresher right now.

Seems like the rest day is yet another advantage the Giro has thrown in Dumoulin's direction though.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

No. He would not have a reasonable chance in doing so. In a flat TT? No way. That would offset his previous flat TT performances by so much. You are talking about Simon Yates, a guy outside the top 20 in most TT's (this prologue was a special course), having a reasonable chance of beating the world champion time trial if there wasn't a rest day??

I dunno that would sent all alarm bells rinkling here if that really was the case

 

[DFA123]

Re:

No. He would not have a reasonable chance in doing so. In a flat TT? No way. That would offset his previous flat TT performances by so much. You are talking about Simon Yates, a guy outside the top 20 in most TT's (this prologue was a special course), having a reasonable chance of beating the world champion time trial if there wasn't a rest day??

I dunno that would sent all alarm bells rinkling here if that really was the case

Perhaps not challenging for the win then, but fatigue would certainly be some kind of leveller. I think having the rest day immediately before is a far bigger advantage to Dumoulin than it is to Yates. He looked shattered by the end yesterday.

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

What are the odds on Froome? I think he'll be gunning for a 2nd stage due to his G.C aspirations not panning out.

Don't waste your money.
Froome doesn't have it in TT anymore.

Campenaerts or someone else that was able to save themselves the past week.

We will see, but expect top 5 tomorrow from Froome

3rd in the worlds, 1rst in Vuelta. 3rd in Tour and doesn't have it any more?

Not done so well in shorter more technical ITT but this isn't one of them

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2018 stage 16: Trento – Rovereto 34.2 km I

[quote="Jagartrott":1dkufklf][quote="Amazinmets87":1dkufklf]What are the odds on Froome? I think he'll be gunning for a 2nd stage due to his G.C aspirations not panning out.

Don't waste your money.
Froome doesn't have it in TT anymore.

Campenaerts or someone else that was able to save themselves the past week.[/quote]

We will see, but expect top 5 tomorrow from Froome

3rd in the worlds, 1rst in Vuelta. 3rd in Tour and doesn't have it any more?

Not done so well in shorter more technical ITT but this isn't one of them[/quote]
Froome's TT performances usually get a lot worse when he isn't in top shape. Look at his Dauphine performance. As it seems Zoncolan was a one off and his shape isn't great yet, I don't expect a great TT from him. That said, I also think a top 5 is absolutely realistic, even a top 3.

 

[vedrafjord]

Re: Re:

Does Cyclingnews forums have a plan in place in case Yates beats Dumoulin?

I think Yates would actually have a reasonable chance of doing so, if there wasn't a rest day today. We saw in the final TT last year that Dumoulin's level dropped considerable after several hard days, and Yates looks so much fresher right now.

Seems like the rest day is yet another advantage the Giro has thrown in Dumoulin's direction though.

I think RCS thought it'd be a shootout between Dumoulin and Froome at this stage in terms of who'd be in pink after the TT.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2018 stage 16: Trento – Rovereto 34.2 km I

Froome's TT performances usually get a lot worse when he isn't in top shape. Look at his Dauphine performance. As it seems Zoncolan was a one off and his shape isn't great yet, I don't expect a great TT from him. That said, I also think a top 5 is absolutely realistic, even a top 3.

A top-3?
With Dennis, Dumoulin, Campenaerts, Dowsett, Mullen, etc? Moreover, it seems his climbing is worse on the less steep stuff, so it seems his poor form would show more in a flat TT (lack of real power).

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

Does Cyclingnews forums have a plan in place in case Yates beats Dumoulin?

I've just found the "delete forum" button. So emergency measures are in place.

:lol:

It's like with having to do fire drills; you never ever think that it will really be needed, but.....I kind of recall Kirby saying something last night along the lines of Yates setting the Giro on fire

 

[gregrowlerson]

I don't get the criticism of Dumoulin in general and in this race. So he is apparently not riding well, and is a poor climber, yet on a route that has thus far given him an enormous TEN kms against the clock he remains ahead of 'climbers' such as Pinot, Pozzovivo, and let's not forget Lopez in the overall standings. There must have been at least a handful of stages now that have been somewhat mountainous, so if Tom is such a poor climber than I reckon he must have gained about a minute per km on Lopez in that extraordinarily long opening ITT for the GC situation to be as it is now.

If you go off the gospel of much of these boards then that makes total sense.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

I don't get the criticism of Dumoulin in general and in this race. So he is apparently not riding well, and is a poor climber, yet on a route that has thus far given him an enormous TEN kms against the clock he remains ahead of 'climbers' such as Pinot, Pozzovivo, and let's not forget Lopez in the overall standings. There must have been at least a handful of stages now that have been somewhat mountainous, so if Tom is such a poor climber than I reckon he must have gained about a minute per km on Lopez in that extraordinarily long opening ITT for the GC situation to be as it is now.

If you go off the gospel of much of these boards then that makes total sense.

:lol: Indeed.

The fact that he's on par with Lopez in most mountain stages so far says a lot actually. And better in the punchy stages.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Giro d'Italia 2018 stage 16: Trento – Rovereto 34.2 km I

Oh dear, I have been quite concerned about Tonton's progressively eccentric posts for some while now. However,it seems that the stress and arduous workload of being a mod have finally taken their toll. I have personally been bipolar (manic depressive) for over 18 years, and on the basis that ''it takes one to know one' it is sadly obvious that Tonton has entered a sub-manic phase (technically hypomanic). Unfortunately, he will not have realised that what he has posted about the TT stage was absolute crap. he will almost certainly have thought that he posted a serious in-depth assessment of how the TT will go, from a senior forum member. We must not challenge his assessment, or he could turn aggressive and lose his grip on reality (like Dave Brailsford often does). When discussing technical points with Tonton it is essential, for example. that you agree with the gear ratio that he thinks Dawg will be using on Tuesday. In fact I have inside info that Dawg will actually be using his fixed wheel track bike with a 62gear ratio (but don't tell anyone) just like we used to ride for the spring club events in 1956 - the 'medium gear' TT's were restricted to below 72". Anyway, don't worry about Tonton. I shall send him a pack of my lithium tablets and he'll be back on track in no time.

Less than 10 posts Vince, this post needed approval, I approved it . Thanks for your concerns about my mental health and for your diagnostic. Should I call you Doc? Welcome to the forum. I hope that you have as much fun as I do, and no, you don't have to agree with me. At least not all the time. Cheers !

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

fyi just realized Campenaerts is still in this race and he saved himself every day. And then I noticed Tony Martin being dead last yesterday, probably saved himself as well.

Might not be for Dumoulin or Dennis then.

 

[Jagartrott]

Weather predictions seem to indicate more chance for rain early than late afternoon.

 

[DNP-Old]

Re:

fyi just realized Campenaerts is still in this race and he saved himself every day. And then I noticed Tony Martin being dead last yesterday, probably saved himself as well.

Might not be for Dumoulin or Dennis then.

Campenaerts yes, Martin I very much doubt. I don't think it's a case of saving energy for him, I just think he's become a terrible bike rider. When was his good TT even? I for one can't recall it.