Giro d'Italia 2018 STAGE 4: Catania – Caltagirone 198 km

[The Barb]

Ruben Fernandez ...

Rode away from everyone on similar finish on Stage 3 of 2016 Vuelta;
Was never at his best in 2017 following injury but positive form lately;
Rarely gets chance to ride for himself but has no GC guy to support here;
Is paying 125-1.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

Saronni said that the team will be all for Aru at the Giro, i can't see them leaving him in the dust at the first uphill finish except in the case Ulissi won't respect team orders.

Is Caltagirone very similar to Rodez?

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

This one for the breakaway!

I think not. Too many people who believe in stage win in select sprint or maybe even a day of pink.

You are probably right after further review.

I have read so far half of the peloton with probabilities of winning!

Now it looks like every rider is punchy!!

 

[Frankschleck]

Morhoric is also pretty fast.

 

[Laplaz]

Tomorrow the weather should be good (but not too warm). But starting from Wednesday the weather should change and it could rain every day until Sunday.
Btw, who of the GC contenders of this Giro should handle rain pretty well? I know Aru and Froome not, the others no idea...

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Saronni said that the team will be all for Aru at the Giro, i can't see them leaving him in the dust at the first uphill finish except in the case Ulissi won't respect team orders.

Is Caltagirone very similar to Rodez?

Slightly less steep but quite a bit longer, almost double the distance (a bit like the bit to Arezzo, but more consistent throughout). It's basically right at the crossover at which point you begin to back alaphilippe or bala over sagan maybe.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Tomorrow the weather should be good (but not too warm). But starting from Wednesday the weather should change and it could rain every day until Sunday.
Btw, who of the GC contenders of this Giro should handle rain pretty well? I know Aru and Froome not, the others no idea...

Pinot likes the rain and Lopez won a really rainy Tour de Suisse with tons of bad weather in 2016.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Saronni said that the team will be all for Aru at the Giro, i can't see them leaving him in the dust at the first uphill finish except in the case Ulissi won't respect team orders.

Is Caltagirone very similar to Rodez?

Slightly less steep but quite a bit longer, almost double the distance (a bit like the bit to Arezzo, but more consistent throughout). It's basically right at the crossover at which point you begin to back alaphilippe or bala over sagan maybe.

Spot on (at least by judging by the numbers).

 

[Velolover2]

Caltagirone is a cat 4 climb while Rodez is not even categorized, IMO.

But in recent years, with focus on shorter, but steeper climbs.. we might have to change that rating system. Caltagirone could become a cat 3 climb and Rodez a cat 4.

What makes 4 km at 4% more important than a 850 m ramp at 8.5%? It's a different effort but both are climbs and "walls" eliminate more sprinters than longer, soft climbs in the 3-5% range.

No one bar Kittel are dropped on longer 3-4% climbs. It's an outdated system.

 

[ice&fire]

Ruben Fernandez ...

Rode away from everyone on similar finish on Stage 3 of 2016 Vuelta;
Was never at his best in 2017 following injury but positive form lately;
Rarely gets chance to ride for himself but has no GC guy to support here;
Is paying 125-1.

Ezaro is twice as long and almost twice as steep as Caltagirone

 

[search]

Re: Re:

Saronni said that the team will be all for Aru at the Giro, i can't see them leaving him in the dust at the first uphill finish except in the case Ulissi won't respect team orders.

Is Caltagirone very similar to Rodez?

Slightly less steep but quite a bit longer, almost double the distance (a bit like the bit to Arezzo, but more consistent throughout). It's basically right at the crossover at which point you begin to back alaphilippe or bala over sagan maybe.

it's about as steep, those official figures include a short flat part. The final ~650m average at almost 10%

 

[Red Rick]

Rodez has little to do with the climb profile and everything to do with how important position is and how hard you get launched into that climb.

 

[Netserk]

The detour they make in the finale tomorrow should make positioning more important than if they went straight to the finish.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Tibo to win!
(No idea how )

 

[Valv.Piti]

Would definitely favour Bala and Ala over Sagan and GVA on such a finish like this.

Betancur to teach them a lesson tomorrow!

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I just noticed Lutsenko is riding as well. I now believe in him as surprise winner tomorrow.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

The detour they make in the finale tomorrow should make positioning more important than if they went straight to the finish.

Little detour isn't uphill?

Looks pretty crazy, hopefully the turns aren't too narrow.

 

[EroicaStradeBianche]

Re:

The detour they make in the finale tomorrow should make positioning more important than if they went straight to the finish.

There's a 8 km at 4% before that, they won't arrive fast

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Rodez has little to do with the climb profile and everything to do with how important position is and how hard you get launched into that climb.

What made aru lose the jersey in rodez is however that he was badly positioned entering a high speed approach to the final ramp. And although there is a short downhill section close to the finish, looking on the map of the final kilometers that doesn't look very highspeedy to me. I think this will be a lot more about strength and explosiveness than positioning

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Would definitely favour Bala and Ala over Sagan and GVA on such a finish like this.

Betancur to teach them a lesson tomorrow!

Definitely a finish tailor made for Bala.

I'm still liking Yates for this one with who's in the field.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Rodez has little to do with the climb profile and everything to do with how important position is and how hard you get launched into that climb.

What made aru lose the jersey in rodez is however that he was badly positioned entering a high speed approach to the final ramp. And although there is a short downhill section close to the finish, looking on the map of the final kilometers that doesn't look very highspeedy to me. I think this will be a lot more about strength and explosiveness than positioning

When everyone is wheel in wheel and the first people start decelerating because the incline start, at some point people will have to start to stop riding as hard as possible cause the time difference between the front wheels would make them collide.

That won't happen here. But the extreme technicality makes it much more likely that gaps appear because the peloton is just stretched like crazy.

 

[Velolover2]

Yates will have to punch away when they hit the steepest 13% section. If it comes down to the last 100 m, he isn't the fastest.

He is the punchiest along with Woods but Pinot/Dennis are faster on the line.

 

[movingtarget]

Dennis would have to have a bad day to lose pink it seems. Dumoulin is the only real danger on GC and it's not his type of finish. There will be enough riders interested in this stage to help BMC bring back the break.

 

[Poursuivant]

Woods ftw

 

[gmedina]

I want something unexpected!!!! For instance, the second coming of Betancur!!!