Giro d'Italia 2020, stage 12: Cesenatico - Cesenatico 204 km

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Large breakaway that will fragment into maybe three groups by the end maybe. Sagan might take a day off on this one. Some GC action but the riders look evenly matched so far so not much damage. Next TT stage should be interesting re top five on GC.
 
My Instagram friendly betting pool has Sagan as the favorite. I think it's a little too tough for him. Do the oddsmakers agree?
Oddsmakers have Sagan as slight favourite.

It is probably 70% chance of being too hard for him, however if it isn't then he probably has a 50% chance of winning (not taking breakaway into consideration).

If it is too hard for him then there a more contenders for the stage, reducing each of those individuals riders chances.
 
Oddsmakers have Sagan as slight favourite.

It is probably 70% chance of being too hard for him, however if it isn't then he probably has a 50% chance of winning (not taking breakaway into consideration).

If it is too hard for him then there a more contenders for the stage, reducing each of those individuals riders chances.
Thanks. I went with Fulgsang. Long shot but I'm behind in pool and need a miracle.
 
Oddsmakers have Sagan as slight favourite.

It is probably 70% chance of being too hard for him, however if it isn't then he probably has a 50% chance of winning (not taking breakaway into consideration).

If it is too hard for him then there a more contenders for the stage, reducing each of those individuals riders chances.
A very good summing up of why he is favourite. Could well be too much climbing for Sagan although he can win from main group or break if on another amazing day but if he is not able to contest then there are 30+ riders who would fancy their chances from a small break or of the GC guys with some finishing kick like Almeida if it comes back together.
 
Reactions: gregrowlerson
That's not very nuanced. Riders are under contract, they cannot "just go home" if they want. De Gendt said that there were several riders coughing yesterday, and that the Tour was organized much better regarding rider safety.
 

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