Giro d'Italia 2020, stage 12: Cesenatico - Cesenatico 204 km

Breakaway day? Madness? Let's see.

Stage 12: Cesenatico – Cesenatico 204 km
Thursday, October 15th, 11:10 CEST

Technical Overview:
The Giro usually proposes stages that follow the route of a Granfondo, and this year the chosen one is the Nove Colli (the Nine Hills). This stage is a carbon copy of it, with start and finish in the town of Cesenatico and a counter-clockwise route. The first hill of the day, Polenta (9.8 km at 2.8%) comes after 26 km of flat and it is uncategorized, being overall very easy. It is followed by almost 20 km of more flattish roads that bring to the real meat of the stage, a basically uninterrupted sequence of eight climbs. San Matteo (4.3 km at 6.3%) is also uncategorized, this time undeservedly. It is followed by the first GPM of the day, Ciola (GPM4, 6 km at 6.4%), that would maybe deserve a third category. The descent is narrow and quite technical at the bottom, and it connects perfectly with the fourth hill, Barbotto (GPM3, 4.5 km at 8.4%). This climb features a really steep final section, and at the top there is a descending false flat on relatively wide roads. The fifth hill, Montetiffi (1.8 km at 9.8%), is again uncategorized, and after a quick descent the riders will hit the sixth hill, Perticara (GPM3, 8.1 km at 4.7%). A very twisty descent will then bring everyone to the seventh hill and highest point of the stage, Madonna di Pugliano (GPM3, 9.1 km at 5.5%), whose gradient is lowered by a 2.5 km false flat in the middle. Its descent is fast and fairly easy, and ends at the foot of the uncategorized eighth hill, Passo delle Siepi (5.2 km at 3.7%). Yet another descent and the peloton will find the ninth and last climb of the day. S.Giovanni in Galilea (GPM4, 4.4 km at 6.3%), that hides some serious ramps, in particular its last 900m at 9.6%. Shame that the top is at 30 km to go, half of it as an easy descent and half as pan flat to get back to the Adriatic coast.

The Climbs:
Ciola: GPM4, 6 km at 6.4%

Three steep km followed by three much easier ones.

Barbotto: GPM3, 4.5 km at 8.4%
Soldi climb with a steep final ramp.

Perticara: GPM3, 8.1 km at 4.7%
Longish climb (for this stage standards) but quit easy. In the official profile we get a free profile of the preceding climb too, Montetiffi, which is very short but steep.

Madonna di Pugliano: GPM3, 9.1 km at 5.5%
Two solid ramps divided by a short false flat.

S.Giovanni in Galilea: GPM4, 4.4 km at 6.3%
Structure very similar to the previous GPM, but overall shorter and steeper.

What to expect:
The stage is going to be really hard for everyone, but the breakaway should take it pretty easily unless something very unusual happens. GC attacks are unlikely due to the length of the flat section at the end.

Reactions: Rollthedice
Hard to think of a stage more suited to a breakaway than this. This is the one where Pernsteiner joins the early break and runs away with the giro.

On an even more serious note though, if we are ever gonna get a L'Aquila scenario like in 2010 again it's gonna be here. A man can wish.
Reactions: gregrowlerson
Curious stage. Hard to say who will make the break as it’s flat early on and in the final but the middle of the stage is tough classics territory.

If a break doesn’t go early then Sagan has a good chance of forcing it and snapping the elastic on Groupama again on the unclassified climbs.

The GC teams will need to be attentive to any splits but the longish flat final should deter most would be attackers in the top 20.

Sagan’s pursuit of the ciclamino jersey could be a defining factor in how hard this stage is raced.
Main reason I don't think this will be breakaway by 20 minutes is because the amount of riders within 20 minutes is still pretty big. But break by 5 seems pretty likely.

Makes me think of Vosges stages before ** *** ** ** **
That looks like a stage for Sagan. But they won't let him in the break unless he is too strong at the hilly part.
This is too tough for Sagan. I think he should take it easy and try to win next stage. But on the other side, there will be no help for Bora at friday so I think that will be for break as well. Tough decisions for Sagan and Bora.

This stage could cause mayhem if somebody will decide to ride full gas.
The fun will most likely be the fight to establish a break, because if a strong one gets a reasonable lead it’s hard to see who would/could bring it back.

It seems quite viable for Bora to control the first 20km and then put Sagan in a break. It seems unlikely that a break with him in it will be quite as cooperative after yesterday though. Climber types will be well aware that they have to break him or he’ll eat them alive and everyone will look at him to chase attacks. You can only shock everyone with a form resurrection once. Im not sure that Bora will go for it.
Main reason I don't think this will be breakaway by 20 minutes is because the amount of riders within 20 minutes is still pretty big. But break by 5 seems pretty likely.

Makes me think of Vosges stages before ** *
It's pretty annoying that multiple stars get deleted when it's so obvious you were trying to write
?! ?!?!?!? !? !?!?!? !?!?!?