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Giro d'Italia 2020, stage 12: Cesenatico - Cesenatico 204 km

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My Instagram friendly betting pool has Sagan as the favorite. I think it's a little too tough for him. Do the oddsmakers agree?

Oddsmakers have Sagan as slight favourite.

It is probably 70% chance of being too hard for him, however if it isn't then he probably has a 50% chance of winning (not taking breakaway into consideration).

If it is too hard for him then there a more contenders for the stage, reducing each of those individuals riders chances.
 
Oddsmakers have Sagan as slight favourite.

It is probably 70% chance of being too hard for him, however if it isn't then he probably has a 50% chance of winning (not taking breakaway into consideration).

If it is too hard for him then there a more contenders for the stage, reducing each of those individuals riders chances.
Thanks. I went with Fulgsang. Long shot but I'm behind in pool and need a miracle.
 
They will probably show the statue of Pantani during the live broadcast. Although it's his hometown Il Pirata probably wouldn't have won this medium mountain stage.

ciclovia-adriatica-cesenatico.png


Puccio, Conti, Visconti, Guerreiro and De Gendt in the break. Maybe Puccio can make the Giro for a small team like Ineos.
 
Oddsmakers have Sagan as slight favourite.

It is probably 70% chance of being too hard for him, however if it isn't then he probably has a 50% chance of winning (not taking breakaway into consideration).

If it is too hard for him then there a more contenders for the stage, reducing each of those individuals riders chances.
A very good summing up of why he is favourite. Could well be too much climbing for Sagan although he can win from main group or break if on another amazing day but if he is not able to contest then there are 30+ riders who would fancy their chances from a small break or of the GC guys with some finishing kick like Almeida if it comes back together.
 
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