Giro d'Italia 2020, stage 13: Cervia – Monselice 192 km

[Red Rick]

Stage 13: Cervia – Monselice 192 km
Friday, October 16th, 11:40 CEST

Technical Overview:
A stage that might provide some surprises, with a very tricky finale. From Cervia the peloton will cross the Po Valley for 155 km, the only points of interest being the two intermediate sprints of Rovigo and Galzignano Terme, before entering the Colli Euganei area, where the fun begins. At 34 km to go the first climb of the day starts. Il Roccolo (GPM4, 4.1 km at 8.3%) is a serious climb, with a very steep ramp at 20% near the beginning and a final km at over 11% average (the official profile marks 13.4%, but it’s a typo… it’s 11.4% instead). Its top is at 30 km to go, and after a pretty fast descent the peloton will only face 4 km of flat before entering the second and last climb of the day, Calaone (GPM4, 2.1 km at 9.5%). This climb is much shorter than the previous one, but just as tough. The descent is very fast and on wide roads, and brings to the town of Este, from which only 12 km remain to reach Monselice, all on flat roads.

The Climbs:
Il Roccolo: GPM4, 4.1 km at 8.3%
A very steep short climb that will almost surely force a selection. As mentioned above, the last stretch marked at 13.4% is actually “only” 11.4%.

Calaone: GPM4, 2.1 km at 9.5%
Shorter than the previous climb but overall steeper and more regular.

What to expect:
This stage is perfect for an attacker. The two climbs might even be hard enough for GC to try an attack if they really want so, but I don’t believe that will happen, considering the 12 km of flat at the end and tomorrow’s stage.

 

[Escarabajo]

Enough of the medium mountains. Bring on the Stelvio!

 

[tobydawq]

Sagan.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah Sagan obviously big favorite. Bigger chance for punchy attackers than for Demare by a healthy margin.

 

[Pantani_lives]

All of a sudden Sagan looks unbeatable again. How the world changes.

 

[damian13ster]

I think Fuglsang and Almeida get left behind 1km before the top of first climb, resulting in furious pace to the very end.
Or noone gets dropped on the first climb and nothing happens

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Lets hope they haven't closed those railway crossings, so we can get some real action

BORA might be the only team that wants to keep it together, if the right break gets away.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Ideal for Sagan is 2kms at 7% or 4kms at 5.5%. These gradients are really pushing it for him, especially back-to-back. However, with no elite puncheur in peak form in the peloton and a pan-flat run in I suppose he's still the favorite.

I won't be selecting Sagan in my pool. As was the case with today's stage I believe his climbing abilities are overestimated. Therefore, despite being the likely favorite the odds won't justify a selection.

 

[skippo12]

1-2 GC riders to lose time. Rest finishes together. Just like today or on stage 10. Feels like the GC is an elimination race this year.

 

[SafeBet]

Ballerini was climbing very well today. I think he can give Sagan a run for his money.

 

[46&twoWheels]

despite my avatar, I've always had a difficult relationship with Emila-Romagna and its raison d'etre in the Giro (sorry nothing against that lovely region....)

 

[Oliver]

Damn boring Giro so far.... I want big mountains.
I hope Sagan gets this

 

[Keram]

Sagan.

But without Matthews nobody will help Bora. With one man down and two in the GC I am quite sceptical. This goes to break or late attacker.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Sagan could try to get in the break, but it will be much easier for FDJ to keep him under control on this stage.

 

[tobydawq]

But without Matthews nobody will help Bora. With one man down and two in the GC I am quite sceptical. This goes to break or late attacker.

I could see your point but this is the most hilariously flat stage anyone could imagine (until it's not flat), meaning it will be pretty easy to control the front; and unless the whole peloton believes tomorrow will be the last day, that would suggest a small group getting away, which Bora can easily keep close. And then Sagan can just attack if that's what he wants. GFDJ will be out of sorts after the first climb and only Frankiny can be anywhere close on the second climb, which means they can't have any influence on the stage.

 

[RedheadDane]

But without Matthews nobody will help Bora. With one man down and two in the GC I am quite sceptical. This goes to break or late attacker.

Technically the "goes to break" was true for the stage Sagan won.

 

[Amazinmets87]

I think that Sagan can easily be dropped on the first climb. The question is who will have the initiative to do so?

 

[Keram]

I could see your point but this is the most hilariously flat stage anyone could imagine (until it's not flat), meaning it will be pretty easy to control the front; and unless the whole peloton believes tomorrow will be the last day, that would suggest a small group getting away, which Bora can easily keep close. And then Sagan can just attack if that's what he wants. GFDJ will be out of sorts after the first climb and only Frankiny can be anywhere close on the second climb, which means they can't have any influence on the stage.

I think Sagan will hang for dear life rather than attacking. Pretty tough climbs for Sagan standards.

 

[tobydawq]

I think Sagan will hang for dear life rather than attacking. Pretty tough climbs for Sagan standards.

Yeah, I think that's his plan as well.

I just think he can do more with stage 10 in mind. I wouldn't have thought he could show such an impressive level in this race. But now he is my biggest favourite for tomorrow.

Especially considering FDJ will die so easily, and then nobody will really have any interest in chasing him back if he indeed were to break away on the final climb (which would be difficult for him, of course).

 

[roundabout]

hope the weather is good, simply because I think Colli Euganei are quite nice to look at

 

[Laplaz]

Sagan, Swift or Ballerini.

 

[Gigs_98]

Really don't see this ending in a sprint. Those climbs are really hard, so hard that most sprinters will be dropped and the teams of the few that will remain won't be enough to bring back all attackers. Break or Ulissi.

 

[Tonton]

At first, it looked like a shorter MSR until you look at the gradients: yikes! Two climbs back to back, longer and/or steeper than Malhao. It's a bit too steep for Sagan IMO, unless the pace is very conservative, which is highly doubtful, considering that we can expect a GC top-10 rider in difficulty like we see every day. If so, other GC teams will push the pace and I can't see how Sagan can follow.

 

[Red Rick]

Really don't see this ending in a sprint. Those climbs are really hard, so hard that most sprinters will be dropped and the teams of the few that will remain won't be enough to bring back all attackers. Break or Ulissi.

Yeah I think it's hard enough that UAE will help Bora trying to control it.

FdJ should troll and put 5 guys in break.

 

[klintE]

Sagan.

Ulissi, IMO, fits better.