Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2025 Stage 17: San Michele all’Adige – Bormio, 155 km

[Extinction]

It's either gonna be a close one or del Toro cracks on Friday or Saturday. I don't know how it will end, but he managed himself marvelously today and Carapaz, while very strong, doesn't seem clearly superior.

 

[search]

I didn't 100% get what Bardet said at the finish, but it was something along the lines of del Toro descending "like a crook on the run", on slightly wet roads. Sounded like he just took more risks than Carapaz was willing to.

 

[Gigs_98]

The problem is that the strongest climbers get hindered. This race has literally 1 proper MTF (Stage 16) and one puncheur's finish (Stage 7). With a proper route this race would have been much better.

If there is one thing this route did right it's that there are barely any mtf's. Precisely the thing that is making this race as entertaining as it currently is. Finish this stage in Bormio 2000 and nothing happens on the Mortirolo while Carapaz probably wraps up the gc.

 

[Red Rick]

No idea how you can take any other conclusions from today than "Del Toro is most definitely better at shorter climbs than longer climbs."

 

[perico]

Stages of less than 100 km.

And what proof does anyone including me have that it is a weakness other than 1 bad day that came after the rest day? It’s no given that this kid will crack.

We just don’t know and reading all the posts making it seem like a foregone conclusion looks like a bunch of people hoping he blows up.

I think Carapaz is most likely going to win, but it won’t be shocking if this kid comes good this weekend. We just don’t know what he is capable of yet when in this position late in the race.

 

[Jack_89]

Carapaz is the strongest. I expect him on the Cold de Joux attacking 6-7km before the summit. There's a hard section. He'll take the pink there? Uhm

 

[Red Rick]

If there is one thing this route did right it's that there are barely any mtf's. Precisely the thing that is making this race as entertaining as it currently is. Finish this stage in Bormio 2000 and nothing happens on the Mortirolo while Carapaz probably wraps up the gc.

In nearly every GC situation nothing would happen today at all. And even then, Carapaz tried, and it didn't do anything before we could go to take a siesta before a medium mountain style finish.

The route is basically overperforming massively every day and it's still not that great.

 

[Cycling111]

And what proof does anyone including me have that it is a weakness other than 1 bad day that came after the rest day? It’s no given that this kid will crack.

We just don’t know and reading all the posts making it seem like a foregone conclusion looks like a bunch of people hoping he blows up.

I think Carapaz is most likely going to win, but it won’t be shocking if this kid comes good this weekend. We just don’t know what he is capable of yet when in this position late in the race.

I didn't say he's going to explode. In fact, I was one of those who said we don't know Del Toro's limits and that it's dangerous for rivals if they underestimate him.

I simply think Carapaz is more prepared for that kind of effort. Although Carapaz doesn't inspire as much confidence either, he's not the same as he was in 2019-21.

Luckily for Del Toro, Friday's stage is 166 km; Monday's was over 200 km.

Anything can happen in Finestre. I also wouldn't be surprised if Carapaz explodes in Finestre. He's been doing it for three years in every GT.

 

[Gigs_98]

In nearly every GC situation nothing would happen today at all. And even then, Carapaz tried, and it didn't do anything before we could go to take a siesta before a medium mountain style finish.

The route is basically overperforming massively every day and it's still not that great.

No I agree the route isn't good and the organizers got unbelievably lucky with how the race played out. I still think not too many hard mtf's are a good thing and you agree with that, right?

 

[Cycling111]

No I agree the route isn't good and the organizers got unbelievably lucky with how the race played out. I still think not too many hard mtf's are a good thing and you agree with that, right?

No. The essence of a GT was to be an endurance race.

If Del Toro wins this Giro, it will largely be thanks to the fact that he didn't suffer that fatigue for two weeks.

 

[Unchained]

No idea how you can take any other conclusions from today than "Del Toro is most definitely better at shorter climbs than longer climbs."

And worth noting that Del Toro started sputtering after a rest day, today did not look awesome ,but adequate for most of the race, with a short, fast explosion. Del Toro has some juice for rollers for sure, but others are running out of time, thinking that the will push him harder

 

[Red Rick]

No I agree the route isn't good and the organizers got unbelievably lucky with how the race played out. I still think not too many hard mtf's are a good thing and you agree with that, right?

I mainly want the early, and for the hardest mountain stags and MTFs to be on different stages.

 

[perico]

No I agree the route isn't good and the organizers got unbelievably lucky with how the race played out. I still think not too many hard mtf's are a good thing and you agree with that, right?

I personally don’t care for a bunch of downhill finishes. I’ve seen enough tragedies over the past decade in this sport and it could literally happen to anyone with one ill timed tire exploding. More descent finishes just increases the odds of it happening again.

 

[Cycling111]

Carapaz lost 1:28 in the 2022 queen stage.
Of course, Carapaz can explode.

6	HINDLEY Jai	BORA - hansgrohe		15		2:30
7	LEEMREIZE Gijs	Jumbo-Visma		12		3:04
8	CARTHY Hugh	EF Educación - EasyPost		10		3:19
9	LANDA Mikel	Bahréin - Victorioso		8		,,
10	KÄMNA Lennard	BORA - hansgrohe		6		3:39
11	CARAPAZ Richard	Granaderos del INEOS		5		3:58

 

[Extinction]

No I agree the route isn't good and the organizers got unbelievably lucky with how the race played out. I still think not too many hard mtf's are a good thing and you agree with that, right?

This is a case of not the course, but the riders that make the race. There is not one dominant rider like obviously Pogacar last year, so there will be battles, while the course actually offers 3 very hard stages in the final push towards Roma. This makes for a good recipe to have pleasantly suspenseful crescendo in the final week.

 

[Gigs_98]

No. The essence of a GT was to be an endurance race.

If Del Toro wins this Giro, it will largely be thanks to the fact that he didn't suffer that fatigue for two weeks.

How is the way they are riding right now not causing fatigue? GC riders are exploding left and right. I'm not against hard mountain stages, quite the opposite, I'm just against always putting the hardest climb last

 

[Red Rick]

How is the way they are riding right now not causing fatigue? GC riders are exploding left and right. I'm not against hard mountain stages, quite the opposite, I'm just against always putting the hardest climb last

Frankly I think nearly every rider exploding is dealing with the aftermath of crashes.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

No. The essence of a GT was to be an endurance race.

If Del Toro wins this Giro, it will largely be thanks to the fact that he didn't suffer that fatigue for two weeks.

But large MTF don't test endurance per se. You can have a bunch of unipuerto on hard climbs and that would really test pure W/kg. In principle I would like 1/2 really hard MTF and 3/4 stages with a sequence of mountains without a super hard climb at the end,

 

[zlev11]

organizers got lucky but they could've had an absolutely incredible race with a better route. that goes for some of the stupid *** they did (that dumb cobbled road on the Slovenia stage that took out 3 GC contenders) and some of the stages that could've been much better very easily (stage 15 and today).

 

[Cycling111]

How is the way they are riding right now not causing fatigue? GC riders are exploding left and right. I'm not against hard mountain stages, quite the opposite, I'm just against always putting the hardest climb last

I say this because a young cyclist has less endurance. If you reduce the mountain in the first two weeks, young cyclists won't notice the wear and tear as much.

In any case, a GT can't have the route that this Giro has had for two weeks. The route has been terribly weak for two weeks.

 

[Gigs_98]

Frankly I think nearly every rider exploding is dealing with the aftermath of crashes.

That's probably part of it but still. The gc guys are racing this Giro way harder than usually. No way fatigue doesn't play a role here

 

[Rackham]

Ayuso 35 minutes down today.

 

[Oldman]

It's either gonna be a close one or del Toro cracks on Friday or Saturday. I don't know how it will end, but he managed himself marvelously today and Carapaz, while very strong, doesn't seem clearly superior.

Carapaz seems to overcommit (or overestimate his strength) in the last kms where he could make more time. People are critical when favorites sit on each other and then win the sprint finish as though they weren't aggressive enough. He's clearly got one gear for his aggression that might not be tall enough when you lose by seconds.
I love the aggressive tactics.

 

[dobrien]

According to what? A bad day (as was pointed on TV) after the rest day?

I have switched back and forth between Del Toro and Carapaz over the last week, and while I would put Carapaz as the favorite, we really don’t have a clue how Del Toro will respond yet.

A lot of these prognostications on here read like a bunch of folks huffing hopium.

All we know is that the last time Del Toro rode the big mountains was the 2023 Tour de Avenir stage that finished on the Col de Loze (a monster climb).

He won that stage ahead of Riccitello and putting 1:14 into 2025 forum climbing hero/revelation… Gino Pellizari.

That’s all we have to go on besides a bad day yesterday.

But wasn't he also beginning to struggle on some of the relatively easier climbs today as well? Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan and today he showed all kinds of grit and pride; I would LOVE to see him win this. Simply if someone forced me to place all my money on one rider today, I just couldn't do it yet for Isaac (I'd be happy to be proven wrong!).

 

[Pippo_San]

No idea how you can take any other conclusions from today than "Del Toro is most definitely better at shorter climbs than longer climbs."

Actually the most important conclusion is Del Toro got quite some amazing recovering skills.
After bonking yesterday it could've been a disaster today (see Bernal or Tiberi). Instead he was fresh and ready for the hunt.
So yeah the guy's definitely GT material.