Giro d'Italia 2025, stage 2: Tirana - Tirana (13.7k ITT)

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Sickness and stuff, just not on great form for longer efforts
He has lost power throughout since the knee injury in the Vuelta last year, which has been evident all season and is absolutely no surprise.

Gap indeed woulda been lower but not a contender. Considering his buildup, his recovery has not been as efficient as Pedersen’s and the rest also no surprise. He should be fine in week 2, if not sooner.
 
The big question is - who paces it? Pidcock doesn't have the team, a GC sprint would be between Roglic and Ayuso of whom the latter looks meh so far and the former doesn't tend to ride that way. And Pedersen is climbing like a madman this year and could survive in even a 30-rider group.
If there's a complete peloton at that point, I definitely see guys like Pidcock, Piganzoli, Astana guys attacking. There will be a stage up for grabs at that point if you can drop Pedersen
 
So congrats to Tarling on his first GT stage victory and becoming the youngest ever winner of an ITT at the Giro. No surprise. That hill made it more complicated for him and Primoz got very very close. Most importantly for the Slovenian he put time into all of his GC rivals: 16 seconds vs Ayuso and over 30 seconds vs other guys. From the start things are looking good for GT #6 but he may want to get rid of the pink for some time (not tomorrow though).
 
The big question is - who paces it? Pidcock doesn't have the team, a GC sprint would be between Roglic and Ayuso of whom the latter looks meh so far and the former doesn't tend to ride that way. And Pedersen is climbing like a madman this year and could survive in even a 30-rider group.
I doubt Pedersen can make a group of 30 in sunny weather on a relatively high-gradient 25+ minute climb. Maybe 40 but 30 would be record-breaking for any sprinter not named Van Aert.
 
The big question is - who paces it? Pidcock doesn't have the team, a GC sprint would be between Roglic and Ayuso of whom the latter looks meh so far and the former doesn't tend to ride that way. And Pedersen is climbing like a madman this year and could survive in even a 30-rider group.
Roglic doesn't like being the leader from the start. If it's up to Red Bull, the break will arrive tomorrow.
I don't think LIDL will receive any help from them to control the stage.
 
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You are right they might try to control it, but I think it would be a mistake.

I have not looked at the big climb in detail yet, but it seems to be long/steep enough that the GC teams would drop the hammer to test the opposition - and drop Mads, by some margin.

I think the better strategy for them is to get him and Vacek out in front so they might get to the line with the GC riders.
I think that stage tomorrow will be a bummer for people who are hyping it. There will be a misc break with a few conti and Italian guys. Which will be caught before the big climb. The it depends on UAE because Bora won't push if Yates or Ayuso don't show weakness, all other teams don't have the domestiques, a sprinter for the flat finish or the chance to take pink.

I don't think Pedersen and vacek can hold in in the last few kilometers but they are strong enough to comeback as a team with those two and maybe a Konrad or Verona chasing together. Also Ciccone can ride defensively in a potential front group.

That being said of course a lot of people will try to form a 10 guy strong breakaway that could stay away.
 
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I think that stage tomorrow will be a bummer for people who are hyping it. There will be a misc break with a few conti and Italian guys. Which will be caught before the big climb. The it depends on UAE because Bora won't push if Yates or Ayuso don't show weakness, all other teams don't have the domestiques, a sprinter for the flat finish or the chance to take pink.

I don't think Pedersen and vacek can hold in in the last few kilometers but they are strong enough to comeback as a team with those two and maybe a Konrad or Verona chasing together. Also Ciccone can ride defensively in a potential front group.

That being said of course a lot of people will try to form a 10 guy strong breakaway that could stay away.
Neither Ayuso nor Yates seem to be in top shape. I think UAE will prefer a peaceful stage tomorrow.
 
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I guess UAE could ride hard on the climb for the memes to drop Pedersen, so that Roglic has to keep the jersey.

I think several GC teams will have a go on the big climb tomorrow.

It's early days and the last conceivable GC day for a while - and everyone knows some riders struggle early in a GT, so the opposition will want to put time into them if the chance arises.

I see no scenario wheere Lidl get to ride the climb at a leisurely pace that allows Mads to hang on - why would ANY other team want that?
 
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I think that stage tomorrow will be a bummer for people who are hyping it. There will be a misc break with a few conti and Italian guys. Which will be caught before the big climb. The it depends on UAE because Bora won't push if Yates or Ayuso don't show weakness, all other teams don't have the domestiques, a sprinter for the flat finish or the chance to take pink.

I don't think Pedersen and vacek can hold in in the last few kilometers but they are strong enough to comeback as a team with those two and maybe a Konrad or Verona chasing together. Also Ciccone can ride defensively in a potential front group.

That being said of course a lot of people will try to form a 10 guy strong breakaway that could stay away.
I think enough teams should be looking at as a realistic opportunity, especially with Bora being in the lead.

The Italian teams, Jayco, Arkea, Q365, Astana, Intermarche, Soudal, FDJ, Decathlon, Cofidis should be targeting it imo for that early break.
 
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Neither Ayuso nor Yates seem to be in top shape. I think UAE will prefer a peaceful stage tomorrow.
You can't expect every GT rider to come in blasting—it’s not the norm, especially in a backloaded GT like this, in a power TT like this that was always far fetched like you was told. Aside from the godfather, who was an anomaly and rode brilliantly, everything else was more or less as expected with power guys dominating this TT.
 
I think enough teams should be looking at as a realistic opportunity, especially with Bora being in the lead.

The Italian teams, Jayco, Arkea, Q365, Astana, Intermarche, Soudal, FDJ, Decathlon, Cofidis should be targeting it imo for that early break.

Yep, I don't think any GC team will be interested in keeping the break in line, if it does not contain a real GC threat.

I think a mix of puncheurs and minor climbers will make it to the line, and the GC battle rides their own race a ways behind.

It's exactly why I think Lidl should put Mads and Vacek in the break, because then either one can conceivably hold the jersey for over a week.
 
I think several GC teams will have a go on the big climb tomorrow.

It's early days and the last conceivable GC day for a while - and everyone knows some riders struggle early in a GT, so the opposition will want to put time into them if the chance arises.

I see no scenario wheere Lidl get to ride the climb at a leisurely pace that allows Mads to hang on - why would ANY other team want that?
We'll see which predicition is right in the end but look at today...Verona 175th, Kragh Andersen 161th, Konrad 149th. I don't think you can call that a leisure pace what Lidl can do on the climb. I think only UAE and RB have the domestiques to make the climb that harder AND keep going to the finish line. But do they want to. Even if UAE could outnumber RB and maybe get a win with Vine or del Toro and 30 sec... it is woth it? Maybe.

I agree that someone will try on the climb but more a 3rd Tier guy like Fortunato, Bardet or Piganzoli. Could be more fun if theres more action but the Giro was always ridden very non-agressive in the last few years.
 
Remember how Remco won the Oly TT: spinning cadence and settled positioning that allowed him to ride around wet corners. The Big Dudes were breaking into wet corners and then accelerating back up to speed. The lighter guys can have an advantage here, especially those with quick accelerations.
Looked like this happened. Ayuso performed better than I expected, Carapaz much worse. McNulty and Ayuso are in a good spot for UAE.
The race begins early and will be interesting what happens through next week.