Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 20: Verrès – Sestrière, 205 km

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Has Del Toro got this? No other GC contender really seems to have the team to make something happen.

But as Sean Kelly might say has "Simon Yates been holding his matches for this stage" and Del Toro and Carapaz burned all of theirs?
The problem is Yates was holding his matches while they were lit and has nothing left except some charred fingertips. (That is a weird way to use that phrase; “saving his matches” makes so much more sense).
 
And there it is: the only climb in this Giro that deserves the label salita fuori categoria. The Colle delle Finestre is a beast, not just because it has an unpaved part, but because it's long, high and constantly steep. This mountain pass in the Cottian Alps can be seen as the third toughest climb in Italy, just behind the Zoncolan and the steep side of the Mortirolo. A top climber can take two minutes here on a regular grinder.

The isolated road with hairpins leads to a height with a splendid view. Along the climb stands the Forte delle Finestre, a fortification that was built in 1891 to defend the borders of unified Italy. It had two big cannons, but they were removed during WWI. Whoever wants to win today will need a lot of firepower too.

unnamedfinestre.jpg
 
The problem is Yates was holding his matches while they were lit and has nothing left except some charred fingertips. (That is a weird way to use that phrase; “saving his matches” makes so much more sense).
Haha, I couldn't remember the exact Sean Kelly-ism.

"Saving his matches" is what I had in my head but after listening to Simon Yates discuss Jumbo's strategy after yesterday's stage, my brain somehow meandered to "Holding his matches" because he thought they had a plan but the plan didn't unfold correctly.
 
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And there it is: the only climb in this Giro that deserves the label salita fuori categoria. The Colle delle Finestre is a beast, not just because it has an unpaved part, but because it's long, high and constantly steep. This mountain pass in the Cottian Alps can be seen as the third toughest climb in Italy, just behind the Zoncolan and the steep side of the Mortirolo. A top climber can take two minutes here on a regular grinder.

The isolated road with hairpins leads to a height with a splendid view. Along the climb stands the Forte delle Finestre, a fortification that was built in 1891 to defend the borders of unified Italy. It had two big cannons, but they were removed during WWI. Whoever wants to win today will need a lot of firepower too.

unnamedfinestre.jpg

this one is MUCH harder by any objective metric than Zoncolon and Mortirolo.

The length is what makes it much harder. The other two are 35 minute efforts (probably closer to 30 if the aliens race them). This thing is a >60 minute effort where if you blow, you really blow.

Contador got dropped in both 2011 and 2015 on this climb
 
Is that not the stage where the DS of Savoldelli arranged a cash payment to another team to pace Savoldelli up the Finestre.
Davitamon Lotto riders Mauricio Ardila and Wim Van Huffel, if i recall correctly, paced him up Finestre and saved his Giro.

Van Huffel ended up making the Top10 himself (or almost did it) and his son is currently racing in Picnic Post-NL feeder team.
 
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Éste es MUCHO más difícil según cualquier métrica objetiva que Zoncolon y Mortirolo.

La duración es lo que lo hace mucho más difícil. Los otros dos son de 35 minutos (probablemente cerca de 30 si los extraterrestres compiten con ellos). Este es de más de 60 minutos, y si te quedas sin aliento, te quedas sin aliento.

Contador se quedó atrás en esta subida tanto en 2011 como en 2015.
Yes. But according to FR's tweet, there have been gaps because of long-distance attacks in this stage, and in this Giro, apart from Carapaz, no one has tried. Even Carapaz seems unable to do it anymore.

Those who lost time did so after long-distance attacks. If the attack wasn't hard in this stage, many riders finished together with a few seconds gap, which was recovered between the descent and Sestriere.
 
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Yes. But according to FR's tweet, there have been gaps because of long-distance attacks in this stage, and in this Giro, apart from Carapaz, no one has tried. Even Carapaz seems unable to do it anymore.

Those who lost time did so after long-distance attacks. If the attack wasn't hard in this stage, many riders finished together with a few seconds gap, which was recovered between the descent and Sestriere.
80km?
 
No :tearsofjoy:
But not at the summit either. He has to attack about 4-5 km from the summit so that Del Toro explodes and his team has no room to help him.

At shorter distances, the gap is recoverable with the help of the team, or other riders, on the descent and Sestriere.

Carapaz needs 42 seconds, which means that in Finestre he needs more than a minute.
Allow a minute and a half or two if Del Toro is with teammates or other rides, because in a group they´ll recover several seconds after Finestre. It has always been like this.

By the way, at the summit, Froome gained 30 seconds on Dumoilin and the rest of the favorites. He made the difference later because there was still a lot of distance, but it's not a summit where huge gaps are created unless a rider explodes like Simon Yates. Losing 40 minutes isn't normal.
Carapaz isn't Froome or any other dominant rider; it seems his victory depends more on Del Toro having a bad day. That's why he needs to attack far from the top to provoke Del Toro to explode.
 
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Today anything can happen Finestre is such a monstrous climb that the gaps should very big.

If I was UAE, I would put someone in the breakaway in order to help Del Toro after Finestre, because there is a good chance that Carapaz drops him there but I believe Del Toro can limit the damage enough to win the Giro especially with a teammate to pace the false flat after descent. I also think Pellizzari should do really well here and possibly get into top5 overall.

If the breakaway makes it, I woukd like Bardet to win the stage.
 
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this one is MUCH harder by any objective metric than Zoncolon and Mortirolo.

The length is what makes it much harder. The other two are 35 minute efforts (probably closer to 30 if the aliens race them). This thing is a >60 minute effort where if you blow, you really blow.

Contador got dropped in both 2011 and 2015 on this climb
Coeficiente APM is an objective, albeit flawed, metric, that has Zoncolan at 556, Finestre at 487 and Mortirolo at 486.

However, it must be stressed that length and gradient are the primary drivers of those ratings and they use a logarithmic scale that means that steeper climbs are greatly favoured by the calculation. Also the Coeficiente has no means to factor in altitude or road surface.

Here is how the rating is calculated (in Spanish)

Climbfinder's difficulty points - I'm not sure how they are calculated but the scores seem to fit rather neatly in comparison at least for these three climbs so probably have more factors involved than APM's - award 1764 to Zoncolan, Mortirolo gets 1577 from Mazzo or 1632 from Mazzo via a slightly different route, and 2053 to Finestre.
 
Considering Carapaz couldn't drop Del Toro yesterday, it's unlikely he'll find another gear today. So if Del Toro drops it will be because he doesn't have the legs more than another's strength. The sterrato of Colle della Finestra is bruttal, so if anyone is off form he could lose big time.
 

It was an epic stage actually. Savoldelli was dropped near the base of Finestre (it looked over for him) and clevelry rode his own tempo instead of sticking to his rivals as long as possible. The pace was set by Simoni, who was fighting to win the Giro. He was followed by Di Luca and Rujano (TV showed black-white images of them riding gravel and compared it to Coppi and Bartali, epic images).

They had like 2 minutes on the top on Savoldelli, Savoldelli used his descending skills and reduced the gap by a minute after the climb. Then Di Luca had cramps while Simoni didn't have enough power anymore on the last climb (perhaps due to hard work on Finestre) and was dropped by Rujano, which proved to be decisive and Savoldelli won the race by a small margin.
 
Coeficiente APM is an objective, albeit flawed, metric, that has Zoncolan at 556, Finestre at 487 and Mortirolo at 486.

However, it must be stressed that length and gradient are the primary drivers of those ratings and they use a logarithmic scale that means that steeper climbs are greatly favoured by the calculation. Also the Coeficiente has no means to factor in altitude or road surface.

Here is how the rating is calculated (in Spanish)

Climbfinder's difficulty points - I'm not sure how they are calculated but the scores seem to fit rather neatly in comparison at least for these three climbs so probably have more factors involved than APM's - award 1764 to Zoncolan, Mortirolo gets 1577 from Mazzo or 1632 from Mazzo via a slightly different route, and 2053 to Finestre.
There's just a lot of intangibles that these simple algorithms fail to capture. They often take some square of the average gradient times the length and then add some bonus points for altitude, so some of them can have a subsection of the climb be rated higher than the overall climb itself.
 
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It was an epic stage actually. Savoldelli was dropped near the base of Finestre (it looked over for him) and clevelry rode his own tempo instead of sticking to his rivals as long as possible. The pace was set by Simoni, who was fighting to win the Giro. He was followed by Di Luca and Rujano (TV showed black-white images of them riding gravel and compared it to Coppi and Bartali, epic images).

They had like 2 minutes on the top on Savoldelli, Savoldelli used his descending skills and reduced the gap by a minute after the climb. Then Di Luca had cramps while Simoni didn't have enough power anymore on the last climb (perhaps due to hard work on Finestre) and was dropped by Rujano, which proved to be decisive and Savoldelli won the race by a small margin.
Have to highlight that they did Stelvio from Prato in 2005 and very little happened.