Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2025 stage 20: Verrès – Sestrière, 205 km

[JohnWayne]

I think riders hugely overestimate the benefits of drafting on a climb as steep as Finestre. The difference in watts between pulling and following is in single digits. Riders seem to fear pulling their rivals even if it doesn’t really matter.

Yates keeping a steady pace vs. Carapaz and Del Toro playing cat and mouse makes a big difference in climb time. Maybe the duo used even more energy than Yates given their suboptimal pacing and a loss of only ~1.40 at the top?

Hard to know the definite answer, but I’m convinced that hard attacks and hard responses are utterly stupid on a climb this steep. I mean, the pace is slower than on a marathon race. Do the marathon runners create gaps by full-on sprints? Well, no. That would be hilariously stupid. Much more efficient to go fast with a pace you can sustain.

 

[Oldman]

What other times in a GT has the 3rd place rider going into the final (non-procession) stage leapfrogged to the overall GC win?

I think Lemond did something like that: after spotting the Badger a big lead following team orders.

 

[Oldman]

I think riders hugely overestimate the benefits of drafting on a climb as steep as Finestre. The difference in watts between pulling and following is in single digits. Riders seem to fear pulling their rivals even if it doesn’t really matter.

Yates keeping a steady pace vs. Carapaz and Del Toro playing cat and mouse makes a big difference in climb time. Maybe the duo used even more energy than Yates given their suboptimal pacing and a loss of only ~1.40 at the top?

Hard to know the definite answer, but I’m convinced that hard attacks and hard responses are utterly stupid on a climb this steep. I mean, the pace is slower than on a marathon race. Do the marathon runners create gaps by full-on sprints? Well, no. That would be hilariously stupid. Much more efficient to go fast with a pace you can sustain.

What?
Unless there is a headwind there is no disadvantage to set a tempo that allows response to those behind you. Psychologically it can screw with a tired rider, for sure but physics don't change when you're at under 20km/hr. You prove the point when describing Yates' advantage of climbing alone.

 

[JasonFly]

The climb was epic thanks to Carapaz's all-in attack at the bottom, very clever move in my opinion.
He made UAE's domestiques irrilevant in less than 1km, isolating Del Toro and forcing him to cover all the moves by himself.
I do not think that Carapaz underestimated Yates, proof is that he didn't hesitate to follow his accelerations, even if he was not the Maglia Rosa.
Carapaz main problem was that Del Toro decided to follow only his wheel and ignore Yates.
He was put in the corner, his only way out being dropping Del Toro and he was not strong enough to do it.
I understand his frustration, I had the impression he was fighting 2 team mates, not 2 rivals.
Yates was perfect, could not ride better.
Del Toro was in the most difficult position, with no help and sourrounded by his 2 direct rivals, taking turns attacking him.
I still think he made the wrong decisions, he should have ridden like Gee, at his how tempo and without responding to every attack, more so because he could not control both rivals without blowing up.
He had 2 choices, doing his own pace or marking just one of the others.
He chose the latter (mistake) and Carapaz's wheel (second mistake, with WWA in the breakaway).
Had he marked Yates, I think the outcome may have been different, but I am quite sure it was not "his" decisione, but a team tactic.
I think that he did not expect to be so good today, that's why he did not seemed too upset after the finish.

 

[Red Rick]

I think riders hugely overestimate the benefits of drafting on a climb as steep as Finestre. The difference in watts between pulling and following is in single digits. Riders seem to fear pulling their rivals even if it doesn’t really matter.

Yates keeping a steady pace vs. Carapaz and Del Toro playing cat and mouse makes a big difference in climb time. Maybe the duo used even more energy than Yates given their suboptimal pacing and a loss of only ~1.40 at the top?

Hard to know the definite answer, but I’m convinced that hard attacks and hard responses are utterly stupid on a climb this steep. I mean, the pace is slower than on a marathon race. Do the marathon runners create gaps by full-on sprints? Well, no. That would be hilariously stupid. Much more efficient to go fast with a pace you can sustain.

I think it's a big dependent on size and the amount of riders behind you. I haven't read any model that describes drafting on climbs tbh. But if uphill it works the same that drafting goes like 50% once you're in 3rd wheel you should definitely be saving like 12 W.

But overall, I agree that pacing strategy played a large part in Yates' much faster climbing time, though it is hard to quantify how much. Big climbs get the biggest gaps by far when riders blow themselves early, but at the same time it's difficult to blow up riders who have been beating you for most of the 3 weeks.

Another thing is that Yates got away really early on the climb already, I rewatched the entire video and Yates is back and has made 4 attacks and got away like 10 minutes in. It's really down to that initial start that Carapaz and Del Toro blew themselves up. And it is by like 20 minutes that Del Toro and Carapaz have already clearly pushed too hard, which is when Carapaz attacks Del Toro dropping Gee that 2nd time and when he paces a while and when De Bondt takes a turn. He doesn't get any closer to Yates and then he stops. Then he waits for Gee, sits on Derek Gee's slower tempo in the draft for 30 minutes, attacks again, and stalls completely at 1'40 back after the initial surge.

So in a way once Yates got back to Carapaz and Del Toro after like 6-7 minutes, the damage was already largely done and from the moment Yates first attacked he was already the climber with the best legs in the race.

 

[SafeBet]

I think it's a big dependent on size and the amount of riders behind you. I haven't read any model that describes drafting on climbs tbh. But if uphill it works the same that drafting goes like 50% once you're in 3rd wheel you should definitely be saving like 12 W.

But overall, I agree that pacing strategy played a large part in Yates' much faster climbing time, though it is hard to quantify how much. Big climbs get the biggest gaps by far when riders blow themselves early, but at the same time it's difficult to blow up riders who have been beating you for most of the 3 weeks.

Another thing is that Yates got away really early on the climb already, I rewatched the entire video and Yates is back and has made 4 attacks and got away like 10 minutes in. It's really down to that initial start that Carapaz and Del Toro blew themselves up. And it is by like 20 minutes that Del Toro and Carapaz have already clearly pushed too hard, which is when Carapaz attacks Del Toro dropping Gee that 2nd time and when he paces a while and when De Bondt takes a turn. He doesn't get any closer to Yates and then he stops. Then he waits for Gee, sits on Derek Gee's slower tempo in the draft for 30 minutes, attacks again, and stalls completely at 1'40 back after the initial surge.

So in a way once Yates got back to Carapaz and Del Toro after like 6-7 minutes, the damage was already largely done and from the moment Yates first attacked he was already the climber with the best legs in the race.

In a way Carapaz dropping Del Toro would have been beneficial to both.
Everything they (and their teams) did played in the hands of Yates, who btw looked liked the best climber out there.
The only question I won't be able to answer is whether Carapaz and Del Toro had the legs to stay with Yates or at least close enough to give themself a chance after topping Finestre with optimal pacing. I would lean yes for Carapaz and no for Del Toro, but it's a guess made on previous performances on long climbs.

Again, I'm not sure either of them had a path to victory after letting WVA in the break, but Carapaz would have never believed he could drop 1'40" on Finestre if you told him before the stage. Del Toro? Maybe close to a worst case scenario but certainly in the realm of possibilities.

Everything happening after the top of Finestre did look bad for Del Toro but really had no impact on the final result. The Giro was over at that point.

 

[JohnWayne]

I think it's a big dependent on size and the amount of riders behind you. I haven't read any model that describes drafting on climbs tbh. But if uphill it works the same that drafting goes like 50% once you're in 3rd wheel you should definitely be saving like 12 W.

I’m not sure either. My single-digit estimate was from @ammattipyoraily tweet. The model he uses gave Gee 430.0W with “0% drafting” and 422.7W with “100% drafting”. And that was for the paved part, gravel would be even less (slower).

 

[houtdffan]

I think Lemond did something like that: after spotting the Badger a big lead following team orders.

Lemond was told to follow Roche to preserve the 1-2.

What happened was Lemond got bad info that he was several minutes ahead when he was in reality a whole 1:15 ahead at the Tourmalet summit. Lemond was never in the virtual yellow on the Luz Ardiden stage

 

[armchairclimber]

That will be in the memory for a long time. One of the most epic stages I have watched in nearly 40 years of watching cycling.
I don't think anyone could have envisaged Yates breaking the Finestre record after the last few days. So hats off to him and to Visma (with gritted teeth) for having a plan and executing it more efficiently than they could ever have hoped. A "super emotional" (why is everything "super" in cycling?) day of demon slaying for the lad from the South Pennines (clearly the ideal training ground for the Finestre).
I like both Carapaz and Del Toro as riders. I especially think that Del Toro has conducted himself with a lot of charm. I do though think that he was forced into the decision to mark Carapaz by fatigue, as well as team instruction and... to be fair... the normal approach of worrying about the guy closest to you on GC, especially as you know he'll keep attacking you.
That key moment when he and Carapaz got back up to about 30 metres from Yates' wheel more or less sealed the race ... but we only know this with hindsight. Earlier in the race he may have sprinted across to Yates, hoping to drop Carapaz. But, as he said afterwards, he was worries about going into the red, and Yates was over a minute behind him. As it turns out, had he sprinted across, burning matches, he would most likely have failed to get there because Yates was able to put in another hard effort. At that point there was still no indication that Yates was capable of a record breaking ascent of Finestre. Del Toro made his choice. As I understand it, Carapaz said he didn't want to work together, he wanted Del Toro to take responsibility to defend his lead over Yates. Probably because he himself was a bit cooked.
Whatever, I am glad it played out the way it did. A fantastic race and a fantastic story.
And Del Toro was gracious and charming in defeat I thought. Carapaz less so. Second in the Giro at 21 with a stage win and many days in pink. Plus a lesson learnt as a player in one of the Giro's most epic stages.... it's not bad.
I loved to see him and Pellizzari at the end too. Great mates. I have followed them both since their Avenir battle.

In all, a great edition of the Giro for me. Completely unpredictable.

 

[Red Rick]

I’m not sure either. My single-digit estimate was from @ammattipyoraily tweet. The model he uses gave Gee 430.0W with “0% drafting” and 422.7W with “100% drafting”. And that was for the paved part, gravel would be even less (slower).

Drafting in these models I think is still based on very old data where a rider in 2nd wheel gets 30% draft. That model also assumes 1m distance between them IIRC.

Now we know the effect gets bigger in larger groups. But we don't really know what happens at 17 kph. But IMO the effect at climbing speeds is still significant, because all the highest W/kg estimates nearly all happen at 7-8% climbs.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So in a way once Yates got back to Carapaz and Del Toro after like 6-7 minutes, the damage was already largely done and from the moment Yates first attacked he was already the climber with the best legs in the race.

Yes, that brutal start of the climb by Carapaz and Del Toro affected their legs. Yates quickly lost like 20 seconds but he rode a sustainable pace for him and managed to keep great form to the end. EF crazy attack kinda blew up both Carapaz and Del Toro.

 

[Red Rick]

That key moment when he and Carapaz got back up to about 30 metres from Yates' wheel more or less sealed the race ... but we only know this with hindsight. Earlier in the race he may have sprinted across to Yates, hoping to drop Carapaz. But, as he said afterwards, he was worries about going into the red, and Yates was over a minute behind him. As it turns out, had he sprinted across, burning matches, he would most likely have failed to get there because Yates was able to put in another hard effort. At that point there was still no indication that Yates was capable of a record breaking ascent of Finestre. Del Toro made his choice. As I understand it, Carapaz said he didn't want to work together, he wanted Del Toro to take responsibility to defend his lead over Yates. Probably because he himself was a bit cooked.

My general rule of thumb when a rider does not do something that's tactically really obvious, is it's because they don't have the legs. They just closed down like 20 seconds to Yates in 1 minute. Even a few seconds is a lot to close when the guy in front is doing a perfect threshold pace and you have lactate coming out of every orifice.

 

[Rackham]

That will be in the memory for a long time. One of the most epic stages I have watched in nearly 40 years of watching cycling.
I don't think anyone could have envisaged Yates breaking the Finestre record after the last few days. So hats off to him and to Visma (with gritted teeth) for having a plan and executing it more efficiently than they could ever have hoped. A "super emotional" (why is everything "super" in cycling?) day of demon slaying for the lad from the South Pennines (clearly the ideal training ground for the Finestre).
I like both Carapaz and Del Toro as riders. I especially think that Del Toro has conducted himself with a lot of charm. I do though think that he was forced into the decision to mark Carapaz by fatigue, as well as team instruction and... to be fair... the normal approach of worrying about the guy closest to you on GC, especially as you know he'll keep attacking you.
That key moment when he and Carapaz got back up to about 30 metres from Yates' wheel more or less sealed the race ... but we only know this with hindsight. Earlier in the race he may have sprinted across to Yates, hoping to drop Carapaz. But, as he said afterwards, he was worries about going into the red, and Yates was over a minute behind him. As it turns out, had he sprinted across, burning matches, he would most likely have failed to get there because Yates was able to put in another hard effort. At that point there was still no indication that Yates was capable of a record breaking ascent of Finestre. Del Toro made his choice. As I understand it, Carapaz said he didn't want to work together, he wanted Del Toro to take responsibility to defend his lead over Yates. Probably because he himself was a bit cooked.
Whatever, I am glad it played out the way it did. A fantastic race and a fantastic story.
And Del Toro was gracious and charming in defeat I thought. Carapaz less so. Second in the Giro at 21 with a stage win and many days in pink. Plus a lesson learnt as a player in one of the Giro's most epic stages.... it's not bad.
I loved to see him and Pellizzari at the end too. Great mates. I have followed them both since their Avenir battle.

In all, a great edition of the Giro for me. Completely unpredictable.

My takeaway is it was a harsh lesson for everyone who believes bike racing is a matter of watts + mythical handling skills. Yesterday we saw one of the underrated aspects of bike racing in the form of the question what do you do when you're fighting your rivals without teammates on an 18km HC col?

And the answer requires some bike racing nous beyond what was on display. Carapaz did himself in tactically by going so hard at the foot of the climb and not having a satellite rider ahead. But namely he just wasn't strong enough.

Del Toro meanwhile did himself in because he wasn't strong enough and he also had no idea how to race his bike in that scenario.

 

[Red Rick]

Yes, that brutal start of the climb by Carapaz and Del Toro affected their legs. Yates quickly lost like 20 seconds but he rode a sustainable pace for him and managed to keep great form to the end. EF crazy attack kinda blew up both Carapaz and Del Toro.

Rogla torching Carapaz in the Vuelta and teaching him terrible strategies for on a 60 minute climb was Rog's final parting gift to Visma. No hard feelings ah.

But really, this is how every great Alpe d'Huez ascent has started. When they start normal tempo on the Alpe, it's a completely average HC finish.

 

[Rollthedice]

Both Carapaz and Del boy plus the geniuses in the team cars underestimated Simon big time before the stage. To be fair, Yates has not shown anything remotely close to what he was about to do on Finestre. Carapaz was solely focused on Del boy hence that very early attack and forcing a mano a mano. By the time Simon reached the duo they were pre-cooked and ready to be dropped by the best climber on this particular stage. Given that Carapaz/Toro were basically doing a remake of the infamous Nibali/Roglic Giro, I suspect that even without WVA Simon is winning it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Rogla torching Carapaz in the Vuelta and teaching him terrible strategies for on a 60 minute climb was Rog's final parting gift to Visma. No hard feelings ah.

But really, this is how every great Alpe d'Huez ascent has started. When they start normal tempo on the Alpe, it's a completely average HC finish.

A lot is about steepness as well. Even pace is more important on steep climbs. Finestre's 9-10% slopes (plus gravel slowing down a bit) and its length means drafting in a group is somewhat reduced. Doing your own pace on a monster like Finestre is better than uneven pace with a group of rivals. What Yates did (or Savoldelli 20 years ago) is maybe the best tactic for this climb: just ride your FTP pace and hold wheel only if it's not much higher.

 

[Red Rick]

Both Carapaz and Del boy plus the geniuses in the team cars underestimated Simon big time before the stage. To be fair, Yates has not shown anything remotely close to what he was about to do on Finestre. Carapaz was solely focused on Del boy hence that very early attack and forcing a mano a mano. By the time Simon reached the duo they were pre-cooked and ready to be dropped by the best climber on this particular stage. Given that Carapaz/Toro were basically doing a remake of the infamous Nibali/Roglic Giro, I suspect that even without WVA Simon is winning it.

It's like they completely misunderstood what kind of stage it was to begin with, as well as the kind of rider Yates is.

Yates has been getting dropped on short bursts the entire Giro. And he has historically been a flat track bully climber sort of specializing in dropping the biggest 30 minute bombs outside the Fantastic Four. And while Finestre is a mythical monster of a climb, the stage before that, was anything but. So despite the stage being essentially the queen stage, the most mythical climb in the sport sort of represented a flat track bully FTP test a lot.

Without Van Aert, you don't know. Maybe team orders get different. But I do think he still wins. Carapaz actually lost time in the sprint to the line in Sestriere, and it didn't look like it was for a lack of trying. My best guess is Carapaz was completely spent on the top of Finestre and Del Toro, much like Nibali completely misreading Roglic, completely missed it.

 

[Red Rick]

A lot is about steepness as well. Even pace is more important on steep climbs. Finestre's 9-10% slopes (plus gravel slowing down a bit) and its length means drafting in a group is somewhat reduced. Doing your own pace on a monster like Finestre is better than uneven pace with a group of rivals. What Yates did (or Savoldelli 20 years ago) is maybe the best tactic for this climb: just ride your FTP pace and hold wheel only if it's not much higher.

If the 2012 Sky DSes were in the car, Del Toro might have won this Giro. Following this move on Finestre is such insane amateur level to me it blows my mind. It's not like there's an easy section coming up where drafting really matters, and it's not like you don't have domestiques with you. 60 minute climb you should always be able to rely on domestiques the first 30 minutes.

I haven't seen anyone *** up pacing a climb like this since Contador on Alpe d'Huez in 2011 when he started on a 39'00 pace despite attacking on the Telegraphe and then blew up for mysterious, unknown reasons.


I also notice that when you have a climb like Finestre as a pass, you tend to get these clusters of guys further behind, and I'm pretty sure it's mostly just psychological that those guys aren't gonna attack each other by doing 5W more than they're doing now and then be isolated later.

Cyclists are just hardwired to follow a wheel I guess.

 

[theyoungest]

Much has been made of Van Aert's role in this win, and perhaps rightly so, but really that role was more psychological. The fact that he was there on top of the climb, and Carapaz and Del Toro knew this, pretty much already took away all their desire to chase.

But watching back the racing on Finestre I noticed who really made the difference: Jacopo Mosca. When Yates was just about to be caught by Carapaz and Del Toro, Mosca pulled for him for a little bit and the gap grew again. That was the final straw. It's unbelievable, I don't know why he did it, but Mosca won the Giro for Yates. Of course that's a bit of hyperbole, but it was really a decisive moment... perhaps more so than the work Van Aert did.

 

[Rackham]

Much has been made of Van Aert's role in this win, and perhaps rightly so, but really that role was more psychological. The fact that he was there on top of the climb, and Carapaz and Del Toro knew this, pretty much already took away all their desire to chase.

But watching back the racing on Finestre I noticed who really made the difference: Jacopo Mosca. When Yates was just about to be caught by Carapaz and Del Toro, Mosca pulled for him for a little bit and the gap grew again. That was the final straw. It's unbelievable, I don't know why he did it, but Mosca won the Giro for Yates. Of course that's a bit of hyperbole, but it was really a decisive moment... perhaps more so than the work Van Aert did.

It levelled the playing field because Dried De Bondt pulled for Carapaz and Del Toro with his own version of "I don't know why he did it".

Stuff like that must confuse neophytes who've never really watched a bike race before. I hear lamentations along the lines of "But why?".

Answer? Who the hell knows. Friendships, loyalties, enemies, backhanders, favors, whatever. Welcome to cycling.

 

[AmRacer]

Much has been made of Van Aert's role in this win, and perhaps rightly so, but really that role was more psychological. The fact that he was there on top of the climb, and Carapaz and Del Toro knew this, pretty much already took away all their desire to chase.

But watching back the racing on Finestre I noticed who really made the difference: Jacopo Mosca. When Yates was just about to be caught by Carapaz and Del Toro, Mosca pulled for him for a little bit and the gap grew again. That was the final straw. It's unbelievable, I don't know why he did it, but Mosca won the Giro for Yates. Of course that's a bit of hyperbole, but it was really a decisive moment... perhaps more so than the work Van Aert did.

Carapaz and Toro had also someone pulling them closer to Yates

 

[theyoungest]

It levelled the playing field because Dried De Bondt pulled for Carapaz and Del Toro with his own version of "I don't know why he did it".

Stuff like that must confuse neophytes who've never really watched a bike race before. I hear lamentations along the lines of "But why?".

Answer? Who the hell knows. Friendships, loyalties, enemies, backhanders, favors, whatever. Welcome to cycling.

That was afterwards, when the "calf had already drowned" as we say in Dutch. Watch it back, Carapaz was almost on Yates' wheel and then Mosca came to the rescue. De Bondt pulled when Yates was already quite a bit ahead.

 

[Lequack]

Chris Horner

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPu2bhTVHIk

 

[Rackham]

That was afterwards, when the "calf had already drowned" as we say in Dutch. Watch it back, Carapaz was almost on Yates' wheel and then Mosca came to the rescue. De Bondt pulled when Yates was already quite a bit ahead.

Who knows. We can only speculate. It can be as nefarious as some people want to imagine or conversely totally benign, like maybe Simon Yates was nice to Mosca once-upon-a-time during a stage and he thought why not return the favor.

Not to say this is what happened but I remember a story Luke Rowe once related in which during some smaller race he helped pace Patrick Gamper back into the breakaway after he was dropped. Something for which Gamper showed gratitude for by gifting a plate of goodies a few days later to the Ineos guys.

The only way to prevent the sort of stuff we saw yesterday on Finestre from happening would be for commissaires to intervene if the rider dropped from the breakaway paces a rider from another team for no reason (especially a GC rider fighting for the overall). But how would you police that? It's almost impossible.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

On the one stage we all said was well designed? If the route didn't matter then why didn't they make the race on stage 19?

It has happened many, many times throughout cycling history that with several extremely hard stages in a row, the riders have a lot of respect for the first one in the row, for fear of cracking on the following stages.

And then, even if there were a switch on stages 19 and 20, it is extremely rare for a stage with five hard mountain passes to deliver excitement from a long distance. Here, the Sestriere stage is well designed in relation to the location.

Ofcourse, it depends on the riders and how the race has developed. An extremely hard mountainous stage design for a cavalcade of mountain stages, then you are sure to get a fuse for the first ones in many cases.

The riders are not robots.