Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia 2025, stage 3: Vlorë > Vlorë (160 km)

[Red Rick]

Axelgaard thinks it will only be a reduced sprint very much like yesterday and basically rules all other scenarious out. I think that seems rather ill-advised. I'm not saying it can't happen but it certainly isn't an odds-on scenario for me.

It's one of these self fulfillingn prophecy stages. If everyone believes a sprint is inevitable, they may act like it.

But realistically, for 90% of the teams the best chance to get something from the day is from a breakaway.

 

[repre]

I guess a lot of people underestimate Astana. They have nothing to lose all to gain tomorrow. They have a couple of riders that can win from breakaway or from reduced sprint if they can get rid of Pedersen. So they are the team that can force strong break or to ride the climb fast to drop Pedersen for Ulissi/Scaroni attack.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Will be interesting to see if Lidl have any domestiques left for 25k of flat when the entire teams of Jayco, Astana and Quickstep get in the break.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Astana will be crazy not to have 3 riders try for the break away. Pedersen I think will try to get in the break as well. Bora most likely will allow a big time gap.

 

[altigraphs]

Quick summary of last stage in Albania:

Giro d'Italia 2025 | Stage 3: Valona - Valona

🏷️ Mountain
📏 Distance: 159 km
📈 Ascent: 3,966 m
⛰️ Climbs: 2

🔗 Map and profile: https://www.altigraphs.com/en/giro-d-italia-2025/stage-3-stage-3

----

Qafa Shakellës
🏷️ Category 4
📏 Distance: 1.17 km
📈 Ascent: 91 m
📐 Average gradient: 7.81 %

🔗 Map and profile: https://www.altigraphs.com/en/climb-profile/jpwzk0/qafa-shakelles
---

Qafa e Llogarasë
🏷️ Category 1
📏 Distance: 10.54 km
📈 Ascent: 783 m
📐 Average gradient: 7.43 %

🔗 Map and profile: https://www.altigraphs.com/en/climb-profile/1vue0x/qafa-e-llogarase

 

[SafeBet]

Pellizzari's ITT surprised me. He was really bad at ITT.

Prior to 2024 he had basically never trained on a TT bike in his career.
The improvement he made compared to someone like Piganzoli, who was a very competent TTer as a junior and u23 rider, tells you the difference between riding for a professional Italian team and a WT team in terms of equipment, research, staff, performance, etc

 

[Netserk]

Prior to 2024 he had basically never trained on a TT bike in his career.
The improvement he made compared to someone like Piganzoli, who was a very competent TTer as a junior and u23 rider, tells you the difference between riding for a professional Italian team and a WT team in terms of equipment, research, staff, performance, etc

And I suspect that with the equipment and positions allowed today, there's a greater difference between "amateur" performances and optimised performances than there was a decade ago. Which makes it harder to evaluate ITT performances of young riders.

 

[KZD]

I think Red Bull will be comfortable letting the break go for the stage and take pink. Van Aert and Pedersen will probably try to get in it and I hope Vine tries to get in there as well.

Scaroni is my pick for this stage.

 

[AupaPyama]

Prior to 2024 he had basically never trained on a TT bike in his career.
The improvement he made compared to someone like Piganzoli, who was a very competent TTer as a junior and u23 rider, tells you the difference between riding for a professional Italian team and a WT team in terms of equipment, research, staff, performance, etc

Curious to see Piganzoli in another team next year. In an interview just before the Giro he said he isnt riding on a very good bike now with Polti. Never seen a rider talk like that about his own sponsor.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Curious to see Piganzoli in another team next year. In an interview just before the Giro he said he isnt riding on a very good bike now with Polti. Never seen a rider talk like that about his own sponsor.

It obviously doesn't happen in public all the time, but it does occasionally, especially with riders who are about leave their current teams anyway. One example is Guillaume Martin slamming the Look bikes of Cofidis last year.

 

[Tim Cahill]

I think Piganzoli is going to Visma. It's looking quite good for them with Finn coming though too, though I'll see how well Lorenzo does at WT before I decide whether he is English or not.

 

[Rou]

I hope RedBull full drills that last climb to drop Ayuso. He looks off. Rogla can give away the jersey after a couple of stages if he feels like it.

 

[yaco]

I think Red Bull will be comfortable letting the break go for the stage and take pink. Van Aert and Pedersen will probably try to get in it and I hope Vine tries to get in there as well.

Scaroni is my pick for this stage.

Pederson does not want to be in the break because he will attacked by the climbers on the final climb.

 

[KZD]

Pederson does not want to be in the break because he will attacked by the climbers on the final climb.

First, its Pedersen not Pederson.

Second, if he doesn't get into the break do you really think Lidl-Trek is going to be able to control a 10km 7.5% climb for their versatile sprinter? I think that's being way too confident on their and Pedersen's abilities.

 

[Boehmand]

Pederson does not want to be in the break because he will attacked by the climbers on the final climb.

Better to be attacked by lesser climbers than by the big GC guns, as they will gain less of a gap over the top

However it seems a lot of experts expect Lidl to keep everything in check, including up the last climb, which obviously makes Pedersen the big favourite.

Personally I would be very surprised if all the other teams just accept that, instead of actually using a 10.5K 7.5% climb to do damage to Lidl's plan and drop Pedersen significantly.

I'd also be very surprised if none of the GC teams drop the hammer there, to test the opposition for weaknesses.

For those reasons I want to see Pedersen and Vacek in the break.

But - the experts may be right, and we are in for a pretty boring stage, where everyone just waits for the eventual Pedersen vs WvA sprint.

 

[motty89]

I'll just be annoyed if we end up with a weak controllable break because people think lidl are going to control... As red rick said could become a self fulfilling prophecy. On the other hand if we see teams really go for it I can't see how lidl trek will control it.

 

[Boehmand]

I'll just be annoyed if we end up with a weak controllable break because people think lidl are going to control... As red rick said could become a self fulfilling prophecy. On the other hand if we see teams really go for it I can't see how lidl trek will control it.

My thing is the route the next 10-11 days.

Stage 4 is sprinters
Stage 5 is puncheurs
Stage 6 is sprinters
Stage 7 is GC on the last climb only
Stage 8 is puncheurs
Stage 9 is puncheurs
Stage 10 is ITT
Stage 11 is a GC day
Stage 12 is sprinters
Stage 13 is sprinters
Stage 14 is sprinters

There aren't that many chances for the GC teams to exploit early weakness in opponents - and tomorrow is a rest day - so I think they will try today.

For Pedersen I hope I am wrong, for the race I hope I am right.

 

[AupaPyama]

It obviously doesn't happen in public all the time, but it does occasionally, especially with riders who are about leave their current teams anyway. One example is Guillaume Martin slamming the Look bikes of Cofidis last year.

In October yes, or after leaving. But before the most important race of the team? It was a casual remark, not even a complaint. More or less something like: dont expect any miracles from me in the TT because we dont got an excellent bike, its a oke bike, but not excellent.

 

[Filippo_3467]

Stage 9 is a GC stage. maybe not for the stage victory but a few dreams will be crushed on that stage.

 

[Netserk]

Scaroni: For sure we'll try to put pressure on Trek

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6HTZnZ7xG4

 

[AupaPyama]

My thing is the route the next 10-11 days.

Stage 4 is sprinters
Stage 5 is puncheurs
Stage 6 is sprinters
Stage 7 is GC on the last climb only
Stage 8 is puncheurs
Stage 9 is puncheurs
Stage 10 is ITT
Stage 11 is a GC day
Stage 12 is sprinters
Stage 13 is sprinters
Stage 14 is sprinters

There aren't that many chances for the GC teams to exploit early weakness in opponents - and tomorrow is a rest day - so I think they will try today.

For Pedersen I hope I am wrong, for the race I hope I am right.

If you put it like this it is a very mediocre parcours this year. But stage 9 is Strade and stage 13 has a punchy short climb on the end. Stage 8 and 11 will be breakaways.

 

[Netserk]

Who is that sprinter in pink?

 

[vladimir]

Pederson does not want to be in the break because he will attacked by the climbers on the final climb.

Watching Pedersen in the past doesn't give much evidence that he will make logical tactical decisions...

 

[Boehmand]

Stage 9 is a GC stage. maybe not for the stage victory but a few dreams will be crushed on that stage.

That can happen on any stage - obviously I am talking about stages where GC riders see themselves attacking to gain time - and stage 9 is more about staying out of trouble.

 

[Netserk]

According to Anders Lund, Kim Andersen (Lidl-Trek DS) expects a larger group to survive the last climb than in stage 1.