Giro d'Italia | 2nd Rest Day Thread

[samhocking]

24 hours ago it was completely different. Today, I agree with Astana's DS Beppe Martinelli:
'If I had to pick a winner of this race, I’d pick the guy who won the stage today.'

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

I also voted Tao.
That sprint to the line...and Kelderman looked like the tank was completely empty.

 

[Bolder]

Given the stages in the 3rd week, anything can still happen.
Someone could crash on a descent, someone else could loose time on a climb, someone could just suffer because of low temperatures or because of altitude.

I think that experience will play a key role in the 3rd week. Consider, for example, a stage like the Alba-Sestriere (20th stage). 5000 m of elevation gain, 200 km, 4 climbs, 2 climbs well above 2000 m, 19 days of fatigue already in the legs, low temperatures, long descents.
When they will reach the Agnello at 2744 m, the temperature will be just above freezing (and they will be lucky, usually at the end of October the temperature is well below freezing) so they need to plan carefully what to wear, when to slow down or stop to put on a jacket and/or other clothes, when to drink and eat something even if it's freezing. Moreover, the descent is 21 km long (2744 m to 1350 m) so they will be exposed to cold windchill for quite a long time.
Now consider that the same thing will happen on the Izoard, even though in less extreme conditions (the Izoard is 400 m lower than the Agnello). Then you have 2 more climbs to go, they are not particularly difficult but if you made some mistake on the Agnello or the Izoard you will pay the consequences.

If a GC rider blows out on the Agnello (kind of like Yates on the Finestre) he could loose at least 20 minutes. Same for Izoard (10 minutes) and Monginevro (5 minutes).

^^This is why I really don't think any rider within 5 minutes of Almeida is out of it. You could even see a Landis! hail Mary attack succeed. Making a bad choice in cold weather could have serious consequences; by the same token, a rider who's less affected by bad weather could surge.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

If Nibali wins this race due to misfortunes to his opponents, he will win every single race he enters until he retires. As no other rider will enter the races he is involved in.

 

[Gigs_98]

Konrad and it's not even close

 

[Red Rick]

Konrad and it's not even close

I agree with the 2nd part.

 

[ExperienPT]

I hope it will be Almeida

 

[SafeBet]

I went with Hart. Just having Ganna to pull in the flats is a huge help. Plus, I hadn't really realized this, but all the time he lost was helping GT on stage 3.

I don't think that's what happened. GT was dropped before Etna and was helped by Ganna, Dennis and Puccio.

Tao just wasn't very good when the Giro started. His result in the opening TT shows that.

 

[Colombianfan]

Beat me too it i was just about to qoute the same. I still think the fact Tao probably when dropped fought he would mail it in abit who knows. He as never contended before. He lost atleast two seconds yday with the celebration, possibly one. He just needs to go all out for it and hopefully it means Hindley leaves Wilco. Hindley is just as strong as Wilco. I hope for Almedia/Tao or Hindley to win the Giro.

 

[richwallone]

Beat me too it i was just about to qoute the same. I still think the fact Tao probably when dropped fought he would mail it in abit who knows. He as never contended before. He lost atleast two seconds yday with the celebration, possibly one. He just needs to go all out for it and hopefully it means Hindley leaves Wilco. Hindley is just as strong as Wilco. I hope for Almedia/Tao or Hindley to win the Giro.

I'm rooting for Tao/Hindley/Almeida now even though it completely screws up my prediction (Thomas/Nibali/Kelderman)

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Who would have thought that the three biggest favorites to win the race going into the third week would be Kelderman, Almeida and Hart?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

My choice of Pozzovivo on the first rest day didn't really work out. It was never in the bag for him, because there isn't a bag. There never even was one.

What there actually is, is a an excellent pair of lederhosen belonging to a man, who will be yodling away from the competition. He will make their legs stiff on Stilfser Joch.

Introducing future BORA rider Hermann "The Pernmann" Pernsteiner.

In the words of The Trammps: Pern baby Pern, Giro inferno.

 

[Forever The Best]

No Fuglsang as an option, savage.

 

[SafeBet]

No Fuglsang as an option, savage.

Please don't tell him or he's gonna get mad at me in his next blog post.

 

[tobydawq]

I don't think that's what happened. GT was dropped before Etna and was helped by Ganna, Dennis and Puccio.

Tao just wasn't very good when the Giro started. His result in the opening TT shows that.

Yeah, he didn't go back. I even wrote that yesterday in his thread in case anybody would connect the dots (him losing his time the day Thomas crashed) wrongly.

 

[Bolder]

Hm, maybe I read it Slightly wrong about helping Thomas. I swore I read some where that Hart said he spent 3 or 4 minutes waiting after the crash then burned energy catching up.
Regardless I still chose him to win!

 

[RedheadDane]

No Fuglsang as an option, savage.

Fuglsang is an option! He's the Vino option; the greatest thing anyone can achieve.

 

[Pantani_lives]

CyclingNews has an article with five questions in this article. Here is my opinion:

1. Can Kelderman finish it off?

Yes, I think so. He looks very steady, has a strong team and a good combination of TTing and climbing. I don't think he'll collapse in the final week. In normal circumstances he would probably have finished third or so, but now that the bigger names had bad luck or poor shape he's the first in line to take over.

2. Will Almeida and the younger generation last the pace?

Almeida will lose more time, but he might finish in the top 5 or even on the podium, although a really bad day in the final week is possible for an unexperienced rider. TG Hart will probably podium, but I don't think he can take two minutes back on Kelderman.

3. Can Vincenzo Nibali turn back time again?

No. Age is catching up with him and he doesn't have that strong Astana team from four years ago. There are too many riders in front of him and his shape just isn't good enough.

4. Will the Giro climb the Stelvio, the Agnello and Izoard?

It looks good for the Stelvio, because the weather forecast is fine for the time of the year. Agnello and Izoard are a different matter, also because crossing the French border isn't obvious these days. Plan B with the Finestre would be a fine alternative, although sticking to the original plan would be best.

5. Will the Giro get to Milan?

Yes. Gaviria is the only positive rider on Rest Day 2, so it looks like they'll continue for another six days.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Hm, maybe I read it Slightly wrong about helping Thomas. I swore I read some where that Hart said he spent 3 or 4 minutes waiting after the crash then burned energy catching up.
Regardless I still chose him to win!

That was Ben Swift and probably the British press getting their Brits mixed up.

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Yeah, he didn't go back. I even wrote that yesterday in his thread in case anybody would connect the dots (him losing his time the day Thomas crashed) wrongly.

No, he didn't go back, but only he and Castroviejo didn't. Why? What is the point of most of the team forming a guard of (dis)honour around a GC contender when he is proving that he won't contend for GC, and yet we see it again and again.

But his chances of establishing himself as Plan B and minimising his losses that day suffered when Castroviejo went on an attack and left him isolated. That (and having everyone else holding Thomas' hand as he sank) seemed to be a total failure of the team to express faith in him. And might prove a very expensive mistake. How many of the 102 seconds that he lost to the Nibali group that day might have been saved if the DS had immediately instructed the team to treat him as the new protected rider?