Giro d'Italia Stage 10: Termoli-Teramo, 159km

[will10]

That's no good if Wyss is 40 guys back.

Seriously don't know where all this Kristoff hype comes from. He does like one good sprint a year

 

[Ferminal]

Is it a straighter run in to the finish? Cav to kick a$$ here. He is frustrated and does not take defeat well. He gets even

There is a bend like going through a roundabout at 2km to go, but apart from that it's dead straight.

 

[Sasquatch]

That's no good if Wyss is 40 guys back.

Seriously don't know where all this Kristoff hype comes from. He does like one good sprint a year

Has Kristoff ever ridden well at this level?

 

[AussieGoddess]

Could be a break since SBS wont work to defend the jersey this early. If it ends in a sprint I think Petacchi will take it, though my heart says Cav, and I am sure he is so very eager to win

But HTC, Lampre and the like will reel in the break to get a sprint finish. SBS wont have to do much tomorrow.

I will take Petacchi FTW

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

my gut says Pettachi won't be feeling generous enough to let someone else win.

 

[Nicoper]

Ferrari for the win, just for a chance to hear stupid comments and read (not)funny article titles like:

Ferrari firing from all cylinders

Dark horse proves that he is black horse

..and simiilar.

 

[Cimber]

But HTC, Lampre and the like will reel in the break to get a sprint finish. SBS wont have to do much tomorrow.

I will take Petacchi FTW

Aye, but its often expected that the team with the pink jesey will do some initial work to ensure that the gap wont become to big before the sprinter's teams take over. But I expect that the sprinter's team will have to work earlier than normal tomorrow if they want to reel in a break. On the other hand, the lack of sprinter finishes thus far will make them very motivated to keep it together. Esp HTC. Lampre might wanna conserve a little energy since they also have Scarponi to think about

 

[TeoSheva]

Ventoso, Petacchi and Kristoff on the podium

 

[Sylvester]

9 Dario Cataldo (Ita) Quickstep Cycling Team 0:02:21
10 Matteo Carrara (Ita) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team
12 Vasili Kiryienka (Blr) Movistar Team 0:02:30
14 Francesco Masciarelli (Ita) Pro Team Astana 0:02:49
15 John Gadret (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:55
16 Steven Kruijswijk (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:02:56
17 Hubert Dupont (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:57
18 Robert Kiserlovski (Cro) Pro Team Astana 0:03:15
21 Thomas Lövkvist (Swe) Sky Procycling 0:03:27
23 Mikel Nieve Ituralde (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:04:10
24 Johann Tschopp (Swi) BMC Racing Team 0:04:23
(27 Jan Bakelants (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:05:51
28 Domenico Pozzovivo (Ita) Colnago - CSF Inox 0:05:53
29 Kevin Seeldraeyers (Bel) Quickstep Cycling Team 0:06:03)

These guys could realistically take pink from a breakaway on stage 10 or 11 — Saxo would love it. But stage 10 is obviously too much of a sprint stage and stage 11 will probably prove to be too short.

 

[Finbouy]

I'm plumbing for a break to stay out here. I think it'll be lead by Fernses/Aqua/Colnago and I think they'll stayout till the end. My thinking is that Petacchi will be wanting a win but unable to get the Lampre Boys on the front all day, Cav will have a go at it but the break will still be 50sec's ahead at the finish thereby a wasted chase back on.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I'm plumbing for a break to stay out here. I think it'll be lead by Fernses/Aqua/Colnago and I think they'll stayout till the end. My thinking is that Petacchi will be wanting a win but unable to get the Lampre Boys on the front all day, Cav will have a go at it but the break will still be 50sec's ahead at the finish thereby a wasted chase back on.

Given the scarcity of sprint finishes, I give this a less than 10% probability.

 

[taiwan]

Given the scarcity of sprint finishes, I give this a less than 10% probability.

The false flat towards the end does help the break a little though. The chasers may find they're getting burnt out quicker than they accounted for.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

You go Manxman don't dissapoint me again !
even though my GGTG prono wants pettachi

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

The false flat towards the end does help the break a little though. The chasers may find they're getting burnt out quicker than they accounted for.

It's normally the other way around - a descent or tail wind helps a tired breakaway by making the stage shorter in time.

A harder finish definately favours chasers.

 

[taiwan]

It's normally the other way around - a descent or tail wind helps a tired breakaway by making the stage shorter in time.

A harder finish definately favours chasers.

Pointless for me to engage in an argument here because I don't know from personal experience or anything, but I believed that a descent favoured the bunch, unless it has a lot of corners, a tailwind favoured the break, and a harder course (usually meaning a hilly course) favours the break. Reason being the first situation increases the drafting advantage the bunch has (high speed), while the other two decrease the advantage from drafting.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Pointless for me to engage in an argument here because I don't know from personal experience or anything, but I believed that a descent favoured the bunch, unless it has a lot of corners, a tailwind favoured the break, and a harder course (usually meaning a hilly course) favours the break. Reason being the first situation increases the drafting advantage the bunch has (high speed), while the other two decrease the advantage from drafting.

I'm happy to accept the drafting as a valid point, but in simple terms, a 10km descent will often take less than 1/4 of the time taken on a 10km climb (obviously depending on the gradient).

As such the rough, 1 minute per 10km break away rule, which is roughly OK on a flat course, becomes far more favourable for chasers on an uphill course, because it simply takes longer to complete, and it is far better to be 1 minute behind with 40 minutes to go than 1 minute behind with 10 minutes to go.

 

[taiwan]

...As such the rough, 1 minute per 10km break away rule, which is roughly OK on a flat course, becomes far more favourable for chasers on an uphill course, because it simply takes longer to complete, and it is far better to be 1 minute behind with 40 minutes to go than 1 minute behind with 10 minutes to go.

True, fair point.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

The main interest tomorrow could be the weather given that this stage runs right along coast. Forecast is cooler, chance of showers and a good breeze from the north (headwind / crosswind). Too much to ask for some echelons and interesting racing ??

 

[therhodeo]

Too much to ask for some echelons and interesting racing ??

I'm hoping for craziness. Cadel chasing back by himself last year anyone??

 

[Libertine Seguros]

9 Dario Cataldo (Ita) Quickstep Cycling Team 0:02:21
10 Matteo Carrara (Ita) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team
12 Vasili Kiryienka (Blr) Movistar Team 0:02:30
14 Francesco Masciarelli (Ita) Pro Team Astana 0:02:49
15 John Gadret (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:55
16 Steven Kruijswijk (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:02:56
17 Hubert Dupont (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:57
18 Robert Kiserlovski (Cro) Pro Team Astana 0:03:15
21 Thomas Lövkvist (Swe) Sky Procycling 0:03:27
23 Mikel Nieve Ituralde (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:04:10
24 Johann Tschopp (Swi) BMC Racing Team 0:04:23
(27 Jan Bakelants (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:05:51
28 Domenico Pozzovivo (Ita) Colnago - CSF Inox 0:05:53
29 Kevin Seeldraeyers (Bel) Quickstep Cycling Team 0:06:03)

These guys could realistically take pink from a breakaway on stage 10 or 11 — Saxo would love it. But stage 10 is obviously too much of a sprint stage and stage 11 will probably prove to be too short.

Nieve is too important to Antón to attack on a flat stage. Bakelandts and Tschopp are more likely to squabble over the GPM then drop back into the péloton. And if the GC leaders let Kiryienka or Pozzovivo gain time going up the road, they're absolutely f'ing stupid.

Given how few sprint stages there are, it will probably be a sprint (especially given the almost totally straight run-in). Wednesday is more likely for the break and GPM-hunters.

 

[Sylvester]

I also expect a breakaway to succeed on stage 11, not on stage 10. But I really don't think this Contador has to fear Kiryienka or Pozzovivo on the Zoncolan, and losing pink for two or even three days might turn out to be very useful. If Kiryienka would take the jersey with, let's say, two or three minutes on Contador, he might eventually hang on to a top 10 spot, but he would still never win the Giro, and Caisse would surely do Saxo's work on stage 12 and 13.

Don't you think Nieve has a free role at Euskaltel, by the way? He attacked on the Etna when Isasi was already left behind and Anton had no helpers left, and he did the same in the last km of the sterrato stage. I don't think Anton wants Nieve to stay with him all the time, it's more likely Gonzalez de Galdeano has told him to attack when possible — he knows Anton, Nieve and maybe Isasi are the only options to win a stage for the team. Unless Azanza emerges as a stage hunter. Did anybody know Azanza is in this Giro? My prediction of him not being named once during the entire race still seems a very good one.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Contador may not have to fear Kiryienka or Pozzovivo, but some of the others might.

2008 Giro:
Stage 7 (Pescocostanzo):
2 Vasil Kiryienka (TCS) +46"
Stage 14 (Alpe di Pampeago):
2 Vasil Kiryienka (TCS) +4'38"
12 Domenico Pozzovivo (CSF) +9'11"
13 Danilo di Luca (LPR) +9'14"
15 Alberto Contador (AST) +9'33"
23 Vincenzo Nibali (LIQ) +10'42"

Stage 15 (Passo Fedaia):
2 Domenico Pozzovivo (CSF) +2'05"
3 Riccardo Riccò (SDV) +2'11"
4 Danilo di Luca (LPR) +2'20"
6 Alberto Contador (AST) +2'27"
7 Denis Menchov (RAB) +2'34"

Stage 19 (Monte Pora):
1 Vasil Kiryienka (TCS)
2 Danilo di Luca (LPR) +4'36"
10 Denis Menchov (RAB) +6'21"
11 Domenico Pozzovivo (CSF) +6'21"
12 Alberto Contador (AST) +6'21"
14 Vincenzo Nibali (LIQ) +8'50"

Stage 20 (Tirano):
5 Alberto Contador (AST) +1'30"
11 Denis Menchov (RAB) +1'30"
12 Domenico Pozzovivo (CSF) +1'30"

If we look at Pozzovivo's results in 2010 and Kiryienka's results this year, then the other contenders had better be wary about giving them a headstart, because they may not beat Contador but they can certainly stick their noses in the upper end of the GC and spoil a few people's parties.

 

[Delicato]

Haven't checked the whole thread, maybe someone already mentioned this. Scarponi said

"It falls after the rest day so it's a bit scary. It's a long drag to the finish so it will be exciting racing. I don't think it will be a sprint but maybe a group of 20 or so. It looks really good for Di Luca, assuming he's not riding for GC.

20 people? Can it be?

 

[taiwan]

It looks easier than the stage to Fiuggi won by Ventoso, and there 80 finished s.t.

 

[jens_attacks]

no way this is gonna end up in a sprint,something will happen.this is giro.

but if it will be a sprint:

1.petacchi
2.ventoso
3.cav