Giro d'Italia Stage 17: Bruneck - Peio Terme (173km)

[Zen Master]

Arroyo has zero chance of staying with Basso or Evans on Mortirolo.

19 will be as devastating as Zoncolan as long as someone attacks it. In 2006 when they ran the same finish (Mortirolo to Aprica), Basso gained over a minute on Gibo and a lot more on everyone else. Admittedly it did include Gavia too

A famous extraterestrial Gavia-Mortirolo-Aprica stage at the 2006 Giro, Basso just speed up and rides away from Simoni on the Aprica climb. Anyway if Basso repeat his Zoncolan performance Evans also has zero chance on Mortirolo

 

[Aus_Orca]

Liqui to push hard and fail, evans vino and cunego to escape up the road. Cunego wins from evans in the sprint!

 

[Mellow Velo]

Once again, I can't call this. It's giving me a headache.
I'd like to see Liquigas detach Bobby Kiserlovski and send him up the road.
Would be interesting and might give them time off the front, while Saxo have to pull.

I tend to think a break will stick. A couple of Rabo riders should fancy this, Voecklerbox, maybe Tondo, if he's not burnt out.
The smaller teams will be circling too. This stage is Jose Serpa territory.

However, if it all kicks off on the lower slopes of the first climb, it could become a bonus seconds scrap.

 

[Roland Rat]

I'd like to see the Little Prince (who is looking decidedly uncrushed, still), take this one.

It's a shame Nicolas Roche isn't riding, he could have been in the mix on this one from a decent break.

 

[Tornadin]

I think you should all watch out for Yuri Trofimov on this stage. His form in the mountains has been improving every stage and today is probably the best chance for bbox to get a stage win so they will make sure, Trofimov as their best climber at the moment makes the break and wins this stage from it

 

[Frosty]

Hm, Liquigas also dont want to find themselves in a situation where they do a lot of work for little gain and then find Evans/Vino take the bonus seconds. Cant really see them hurting the other leaders that much anyway, Sastre didnt do well yesterday though, maybe he is one they would like to put under pressure today - he doesnt seem to be going that well this year but friday and saturday's stages are ones he could go well on.

 

[Frosty]

Anyone seen the local forecast? Looks dry there at the moment but it could turn a bit wet later on from what i can see. Forecast for the following three days looks a bit wet too.

 

[Polka Dot Punter]

I tend to feel a break is most likely to succeed tonight. There's too much flat after the big mountain for any real time to be made on Arroyo, and thus their incentive to drive hard early will be lessened.

There's a few riders I like to win, but my big preferences are Gibo and Cataldo, who has looked fantastic all Giro and looks set to win something soon. Moncoutie not without a shout either.

 

[kukiniloa]

Another view

The traditionalist would probably be right is guessing that the contenders will just mark each other. They all want to rest and wait for Thursday and Friday - those stages will be truly epic. But today's stage would invite some attacks relying on this complacency that won't draw strong responses, like Efimkin, Gerdeman, Garzelli, and Cunego, for example.

But if Vino senses weakness, we may see some fireworks on the Mortirolo!

 

[Fourier]

Vino!
he has nothing to loose at this point.

Either him or Nibali if he goes Kamikaze on the descent and opens up a gap.

 

[issoisso]

The traditionalist would probably be right is guessing that the contenders will just mark each other. They all want to rest and wait for Thursday and Friday - those stages will be truly epic. But today's stage would invite some attacks relying on this complacency that won't draw strong responses, like Efimkin, Gerdeman, Garzelli, and Cunego, for example.

But if Vino senses weakness, we may see some fireworks on the Mortirolo!

If Vino attacks on the Mortirolo today, he's doing it wrong

Mostly because it's not on today's route

 

[HL2037]

Would Liquigas be able to repeat their tactics from the other day, where Basso isolated the teamleaders by pacing up the mountain and then Nibali broke away on the descend, forcing the others to chase him and allowing Basso to draft the rest of the way? Or is it too long for Nibali to ride alone home? Maybe the mountain is not hard enough for Basso to do that?

 

[craig1985]

Not what people would've said a few days ago

That is what makes this Giro so random. For the first part of the race, the Italians couldn't win a stage for love or money. Now, they win one stage, and they're like buses, when one win comes, another follows quickly.

 

[Tuarts]

I think the breakaway will succeed with Garzelli and Simoni trying to get into it.

As for GC, there is bound to be attacks on that last climb. Maybe Liqui sending Kirso and Nibali off to try to force other teams to chase.

 

[search]

But today's stage would invite some attacks relying on this complacency that won't draw strong responses, like Efimkin, Gerdeman, Garzelli, and Cunego, for example.

Gerdemann is ill, he catched a bronchitis. I don't expekt a lot

I go for Petrov today

 

[Poppert]

Descents to deside GC?

Lots of 'ifs' to think about.
These stages have some verrry big climbs, but they do not actually end in a big climb.

IF Evans will ever break clear from Basso (which I doubt), I suspect it will be on a descent, not a climb.

But Arroyo is my pick for the GC win now. Evans can't catch Arroyo himself, and Liquigas fears Evans too much, only 0:42 back. This will hamper the chase and play it into Arroyo's hands. In today's stage Liquigas will let a break go instead of battling for bonus seconds. Why? They are afraid that Evans will take the bonus instead of Basso/Nibali. Only Arroyo will benefit from this.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

If there's any strength in the breakaway it should stay away today. Caisse D'E obviously won't chase hard. I'd be surprised if Liquigas chase because all they'd be doing is setting up Evans to take more time on Basso - they might even try to put someone like Agnoli in the break. Not sure any other teams will get over the Palade mountain with enough riders to chase

Day off to recover for Garzelli - doubt he'll get in the break because nobody will ride with him since they'd have very little chance to win

Wegelius for me

 

[Von Mises]

If not earlier, then definitely there will be attacks on last climb. GC is still very close and I am sure there are still plenty of GC men who want to gain something, even if it means 10 or 20 seconds.

 

[craig1985]

Moncoutie to get in the break and win. If Matt Lloyd wants to win the Giro GOM, then he will need to be todays break as well.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Attempting to break away:

Froome
Ignatiev
Albasini
Monier
Donati
Grivko
Bertolini
Kiryienka
Marangoni
King
Haedo
Moreno

 

[Zen Master]

IF Evans will ever break clear from Basso (which I doubt), I suspect it will be on a descent, not a climb.

But Arroyo is my pick for the GC win now. Evans can't catch Arroyo himself, and Liquigas fears Evans too much, only 0:42 back. This will hamper the chase and play it into Arroyo's hands. In today's stage Liquigas will let a break go instead of battling for bonus seconds. Why? They are afraid that Evans will take the bonus instead of Basso/Nibali. Only Arroyo will benefit from this.

Nonsense beacuse Arroyo will lose at least 5 min on Mortirolo and Gavia

 

[miha1234]

Is any live stream jet?

 

[search]

Attempting to break away:

Froome
Ignatiev
Albasini
Monier
Donati
Grivko
Bertolini
Kiryienka
Marangoni
King
Haedo
Moreno

they have been already chasen down by Lampre

Cunego seems to be very interested in that stage win today

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

19 riders now trying, currently holding 22 seconds. Let's see if they succeed.

 

[miha1234]

live stream?