Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia stage 19 Biella – Champoluc 166km

Here we go again, back in the mountains for the last 2 decisive stages.
Thanks to DE for making out lives easier.

The most difficult stage if we go solely off of elevation gain, but the gradients are less than stellar. Will the GC riders be tempted anyway or are all eyes on Finestre by this point?

Map and profile

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Start

The final mountain bloc starts in Biella, perhaps fittingly located at the foot of the Alps. Although founded in the 10th century, for centuries it was no more than a modest hilltop town, with a village located directly below it at the very tip of the Po valley. In the late 18th century, Biella became the seat of a bishopric and the new cathedral was constructed in the village. This was the start of the city centre being shifted to the lower town, a process that truly accelerated with the development of the wool industry in the post-Napoleonic era. The next century would see massive economic and population growth, but also the severe social deprivation synonymous with Industrial Revolution-era boom areas. And as with most such boom areas, recent decades have been difficult with the closure of many plants. However, Biella does retain the advantage of being more suitable for tourism than most of its peers, profiting especially from the sanctuaries (and of course famous cycling climb) at Oropa. Of course, most of its cycling heritage is therefore up the mountain, but this will still be the eighth Giro to either start or finish in the town itself. The most recent instance was in 2021, for a hilly stage to Canale won by Taco van der Hoorn, although of course Oropa featured last year.

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(picture by Michael Musto at Wikimedia Commons)

Route

For the first time since stage 7, we have an uphill start, and apparently that was exciting enough to warrant an official profile. Croce Serra isn’t too hard, and thus it would not be a surprise if the break ends up going further on in the stage.

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The descent is moderately technical, and takes us into what is geographically already the Aosta Valley. However, the official is about ten kilometres down the road, right before the intermediate sprint in Pont-Saint-Martin. As you can tell from the name, this area has not always been Italian, and both French and (especially) the Valdôtain dialect remain widely spoken in the valley. After passing the spectacular fortifications at Bard, we hit the hardest climb of the day, Col Tzecore. It is also the toughest climb that could have featured in the decisive portion of the stage, so it’s a shame to see it kind of wasted.

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The ensuing descent is the most technical of the day. The valley section that follows it contains the second intermediate sprint in Châtillon, then the stage turns into something that isn’t quite tempogrinder bonanza (the gradients aren’t low enough), but still far from ideal for solo riders. First up is the Col Saint-Pantaléon, more commonly seen on the way to Cervinia.

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The plus side of the second half of the stage is that there is very little flat between the climbs. The tiny valley section is used for the bonification sprint in Saint-Vincent, then it’s back up the same mountain Tzecore is located on, only this time we end up a couple of kilometres to the north on Col de Joux.

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There is one more climb after that, the easy Antagnod. Having said that, the average gradient does mask the fact that the climb is somewhat irregular, and therefore might just form a final launchpad.

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Finish

The final climb is located just five kilometres from the line, and most of those are downhill. Once again, there is a 90-degree turn at 100 metres from the line, I really don’t get why this keeps happening on the mountain stages this year…

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Located in the Val d’Ayas, Champoluc is one of the richest villages in Italy, a fact that can be attributed almost entirely to tourism and second homes. Despite the mountains to its north being among the highest in the Alps (both the Matterhorn and the Monte Rosa are nearby), it was among the valleys settled by the Walser people from Valais in the second half of the Middle Ages. However, unlike some of the other valleys in northwest Italy, it does not appear to have become germanised, probably because it was long since inhabited. Today, the extreme altitude of the mountains is mainly a boon: the landscapes are spectacular even by Alpine standards and the favourable orography means the area receives unusually high amounts of snowfall. For this reason, the Monterosa ski area (of which Champoluc is a part) is best known as one of the leading destinations for ski touring in the Alps. It has never hosted the Giro before.

What to expect?

It depends on the race situation. The most likely scenario is that GC action is limited to the final section of Antagnod at best, but long-range attacks cannot be ruled out. This is also the last good breakaway opportunity, which should help the first part of the stage.
 
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Carapaz must attack on Col de Joux and I would be surprised if he doesn't take pink from Del Toro. What I'm really wondering though is if some of the lower top ten riders will start attacking from further out. I could definitely see Bernal and Pellizari say *** it, why not and go on Tze Core.
I'd think the plan is basically get guys in the break at all costs and then reevaluate.

It's a pretty big question mark to me how much you can do on Col de Joux just from your own team pacing on the peloton and then attacking full gas halfway. If that drops Del Toro it's basically over and not particularly close either.
 
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Aosta stages without San Carlo usually aren't the biggest carnage out there. If it were Ayuso vs Roglic with 30 seconds between them and everyone else 3 minutes back I'd expect nothing from tomorrow.

But I think tomorrow is 100% where Derek Gee is gonna have to send it if he wants to win the Giro.
 
Aosta stages without San Carlo usually aren't the biggest carnage out there. If it were Ayuso vs Roglic with 30 seconds between them and everyone else 3 minutes back I'd expect nothing from tomorrow.

But I think tomorrow is 100% where Derek Gee is gonna have to send it if he wants to win the Giro.
This holds true for all!! And Del Toro is behind the eight ball, he has to personally respect and react to everyone. Gee jumping can't be ignored by Del Toro, same with 6,7 others that can go early and win GC with one great day on the bike. Del Toro looked beat up on Tuesday after closing gaps personally.. Tomorrow is everything for him.. Tiberi can take off and he would have to respect the move, tomorrow could take 10-20+ minutes out of leaders if any one or more cracks.. Still anyone's race to win.
 
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I think this is the stage where they´ve to try to take the lead from Del Toro.
Finestre is very hard, but it's a climb he can overcome with his teammates.

Del Toro's worst day was Tuesday, with several mountain climbs. With a hard pace on the penultimate climb, and a final attack far from the finish. If they wait for a sprint up the hill, Del Toro has shown his punch.

Whoever wants to win the Giro tomorrow has to be brave.
Everyone who's not on the podium, top4 to top10, tomorrow should attack.

If Del Toro doesn't lose time tomorrow, I think he'll win the Giro.
 
I think that none of the teams has the firepower to put the hammer down and get rid of Del Toro's helpers and they could matter in the last part of the stage.
I won't be surprised if Majka/Yates/McNulty(well..NO) save Del Toro's lead and we may be down to another Savoldelli-Simoni showdown on Finestre's descent and Sestriere.


Could Carapaz lose another GT on bonuses?
We mustn't forget that Carapaz collapsed on the hardest climb of the 2022 Giro, also on the final stage.

Del Toro is expected to collapse, but Carapaz hasn't been reliable since then either.
He has to take advantage of tomorrow; Carapaz already lost a Giro the last day on the hardest climb.

He shouldn't leave all his options for Finestre.
If Del Toro lose time tomorrow, it could affect him physically and mentally.
 
We mustn't forget that Carapaz collapsed on the hardest climb of the 2022 Giro, also on the final stage.

Del Toro is expected to collapse, but Carapaz hasn't been reliable since then either.
He has to take advantage of tomorrow; Carapaz already lost a Giro last day on the hardest climb.

He shouldn't leave all his options to Finestre.

If Del Toro misses time tomorrow, it could affect him physically and mentally.

We shouldn't forget that Yates collapsed on Finestre as well.
So it's Gee to win the Geero?

Or maybe that Caruso descent attack we've all been waiting for since stage 13 in 2023 will finally happen and he'll win the whole thing?
 
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We shouldn't forget that Yates collapsed on Finestre as well.
So it's Gee to win the Geero?

Or maybe that Caruso descent attack we've all been waiting for since stage 13 in 2023 will finally happen and he'll win the whole thing?
I don't completely rule out Gee winning the Giro. If there's a GT where the fourth can win, it's undoubtedly this one, in which none of the top3 were favorites.

The last to win a GT was Carapaz in 2019, who hasn't finished on the podium since the 2022 Giro.
The three riders in front of him aren't the most reliable. Del Toro because of his youth, and the other two because they haven't been at their best for years.
Although it seems unlikely that all three will collapse.

But Gee would´ve to attack tomorrow and gain time on at least two of them.
If he doesn't try, we won't know.

I also think Carapaz is more reliable in the mountains. But Del Toro is truly an unknown quantity. We don't have many precedents for him. Maybe Tuesday was just a bad day, and he doesn't have that in Finestre.

I think it would be a mistake to leave everything to Finestre, and for Carapaz I think it's important that Del Toro misses time tomorrow. . If Del Toro doesn't struggle tomorrow like Tuesday, he'll have a good chance of winning the Giro.

They´ve to ride tomorrow's stage likeon Tuesday.. If they focus more on Finestre, it would be a mistake.
They need to confirm whether Del Toro's performance was just a bad day or if he's really not yet ready for a high-paced stage with three mountains.

I wasn't just saying this because Carapaz had a bad day in 2022, but because he hasn't been consistent since then.
 
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