Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia stage 19 Biella – Champoluc 166km

[KZD]

I actually think this could turn out to be a more dangerous stage for Del Toro than stage 20. Massive amount of climbing over less than 170km and these are three 45 minute climbs where the pure climbers can make a big difference.

Bardet to win the stage from the breakaway and Carapaz to take pink by a few seconds.

 

[Gigs_98]

I understand where all the "this stage might actually be more dangerous than stage 20" is coming from, but...it's the finestre. I agree tomorrow will be decisive as well but people are underestimating just how big of a difference maker such a climb is compared to a 15km 7% climb like Col de Joux.

 

[Tim Cahill]

The Carapaz enthusiasts are going to be in for a shock tomorrow.

He's going to put 3 minutes into everyone instead of the mere 1.30 we think he is?

 

[Red Rick]

I understand where all the "this stage might actually be more dangerous than stage 20" is coming from, but...it's the finestre. I agree tomorrow will be decisive as well but people are underestimating just how big of a difference maker such a climb is compared to a 15km 7% climb like Col de Joux.

It's more important to make a move here for a few riders if they wanna move up, but that's about it, namely Gee, Pellizzari and Caruso.

If Del Toro gets dropped on Col de Joux he's simply got get his ass blasted on the Finestre. And this Salvodelli idea of saving it on the descent just doesn't make much sense either. If you crack on Finestre you're just done for. Contador lost 2'25 after getting dropped in the final km of Finestre, and it's not like Carapaz and Del Toro are Rujano or Salvodelli levels of different on the flat/false flats.

 

[Izzyeviel]

He's going to put 3 minutes into everyone instead of the mere 1.30 we think he is?

Something like that...

 

[Peyroteo94]

I actually think this turn out to be a more dangerous stage for Del Toro than stage 20. Massive amount of climbing over less than 170km and these are three 45 minute climbs where the pure climbers can make a big difference.

Bardet to win the stage from the breakaway and Carapaz to take pink by a few seconds.

I believe this is a stage for GC guys. Ineos, Israel and EF will put the hammer down IMHO.

 

[Sciatic]

Carapaz must attack on Col de Joux and I would be surprised if he doesn't take pink from Del Toro. What I'm really wondering though is if some of the lower top ten riders will start attacking from further out. I could definitely see Bernal and Pellizari say *** it, why not and go on Tze Core.

One of chasers after pink needs to attack on Joux--it's only 21 km to the finish from the top to the finish, 15 km from the bottom. Seems worth the risk especially if there's no headwind. However, to make it stick requires making the stage hard on the previous climbs, but I don't know if any team is strong enough to do so. Visma, I guess? Wout could be in for some major mountain duty.

 

[Sciatic]

Nairoman for the win! (Or, more realistically, Carapaz.)

This will be his best shot to get in a break with other climbers. He's not being doing that though, hopefully means he's saving himself for a shot here.

 

[Mako]

After carefully reading the stage summary, I came to the conclusion that the mountains after Tzecore are not hard enough to drop IdT. Some of the attackers might just burn themselves.

Anyways, we should be in for a treat! There surely should be lots of action.

 

[Lequack]

Was Carapaz ever good on steep climbs? I think he excels more on shallower climbs, he could gain time on Roglic on climbs which everyone thought were easy.

 

[Sciatic]

It's good in terms of elevation gain. I actually meant that tomorrow's action can make the race decision much clearer not the the gaps will be like on Finestre stage.

A lot of tired legs and some hard racing in this week 3 could mean some gaps through simple attrition. One of the top 5 likely to lose a chunk of time. Or not

 

[hayneplane]

Guys I'm not drunk, but does anyone think it's not just the best idea for UAE to chuck everyone into the breakaway and have Del Toro attack on the Saint Panthaleon descent?

Attack as the best form of defence. I like it, high risk high reward.

At minimum they should be trying to get 2 riders up the road to be a relay later in the stage.

 

[JasonFly]

I live at the bottom of Saint Panthaleon, I know these roads very well.
The descents of Saint Panthaleon and Col de Joux are quite easy, it is very difficult if not impossible to make the difference downhill.
The long stretch from Antey to the bottom of Joux is large, has almost no bends and the wind will very probably be blowing against the riders.
This should discourage attacks from Saint Panthaleon.

Joux is quite an easy climb, large road, regular gradients, not the climb where I would expect much to be honest...
The first few kms are the hardest ones, if someone wants to attack should not wait too long.
The hardest gradients are found in the second half of the climb, but that section is quite short, less than 500m I think.

The stage design is a bit meh, the best finish would have certainly been Tsecore + Joux, the perfect combo of hard climb immediately followed by easier climb.

With this design I am not expecting much, I fail to see where Yates/Carapaz could make the difference.
The perfect launch pad is Tsecore, but it is too far from the finish.
The second opportunity could be the last 2km of Saint Panthaleon, but who will dare given the unfavorable descent that follows?

If I were Carapaz, I would try to ride the first two climbs with the team as hard as possible and fire the first bullet at the bottom of Joux.
Best case, you can get separation from Del Toro and be followed by Yates/Gee/Pellizzari.
If It doesn't work, second bullet at the hardest gradients.
If at that point Del Toro still follows, fold and think about Finestre.

 

[pelotonIQ]

Was Carapaz ever good on steep climbs? I think he excels more on shallower climbs, he could gain time on Roglic on climbs which everyone thought were easy.

Carapaz is good on steep gradients, Carapaz vs Roglic Vuelta 20' comes to mind.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Carapaz is good on steep gradients, Carapaz vs Roglic Vuelta 20' comes to mind.

Lets hope he hasn't aged or declined in the five years since...

 

[SHAD0W93]

Guys I'm not drunk, but does anyone think it's not just the best idea for UAE to chuck everyone into the breakaway and have Del Toro attack on the Saint Panthaleon descent?

I was going to say UAE starts even earlier than that but your plan works too.

 

[Sciatic]

I live at the bottom of Saint Panthaleon, I know these roads very well.
The descents of Saint Panthaleon and Col de Joux are quite easy, it is very difficult if not impossible to make the difference downhill.
The long stretch from Antey to the bottom of Joux is large, has almost no bends and the wind will very probably be blowing against the riders.
This should discourage attacks from Saint Panthaleon.

Joux is quite an easy climb, large road, regular gradients, not the climb where I would expect much to be honest...
The first few kms are the hardest ones, if someone wants to attack should not wait too long.
The hardest gradients are found in the second half of the climb, but that section is quite short, less than 500m I think.

The stage design is a bit meh, the best finish would have certainly been Tsecore + Joux, the perfect combo of hard climb immediately followed by easier climb.

With this design I am not expecting much, I fail to see where Yates/Carapaz could make the difference.
The perfect launch pad is Tsecore, but it is too far from the finish.
The second opportunity could be the last 2km of Saint Panthaleon, but who will dare given the unfavorable descent that follows?

If I were Carapaz, I would try to ride the first two climbs with the team as hard as possible and fire the first bullet at the bottom of Joux.
Best case, you can get separation from Del Toro and be followed by Yates/Gee/Pellizzari.
If It doesn't work, second bullet at the hardest gradients.
If at that point Del Toro still follows, fold and think about Finestre

Thanks for being our “on the scene” reporter! Infinitely more helpful than Hannah what’s-her-name.

 

[AnotherArmChair]

So even if they cant drop del Toro tomorrow they need to soften him up for Saturday

These multiple climbs favour pure climbers or crusty hardmen (ie Caruso and Gee)

So I think Carapaz will do well and Gee ..not sure they will attack per se (maybe Carapz on final climb) but it will be a high pace and a race of attrition. The cant let UAE control the race as Mijka and A Yates will control and slow it down for del Toro if need be . It will be down to Visma to set the pace. I hope Simon Yates is on a good day. If Visma dont pace then he probably isnt

Attacks will come though from Pellizari and Bernal and Rubio.

del Toro would do well not to chase and keep his eye on Carapaz, Yates and Gee as the main rivals

Poole should enter top 10

 

[Tonton]

This holds true for all!! And Del Toro is behind the eight ball, he has to personally respect and react to everyone. Gee jumping can't be ignored by Del Toro, same with 6,7 others that can go early and win GC with one great day on the bike. Del Toro looked beat up on Tuesday after closing gaps personally.. Tomorrow is everything for him.. Tiberi can take off and he would have to respect the move, tomorrow could take 10-20+ minutes out of leaders if any one or more cracks.. Still anyone's race to win.

This ^.

Isaac will be just fine, many will defend their high GC placings, be opportunistic, it will be too unstable for the top-3 to set up their own pieces. Gee? As gutsy as he is, Derek needs to watch Caruso. Giulio has nothing to lose. Bardet can do really well in this sort of finish. His last rodeo, it would be nice.

Isaac will be just fine, the bag has opened up...

 

[Tonton]

Since we're in the mountains, I would like to see more goats tomorrow.

Pinot has retired...

 

[Gratemans]

My prediction, completely based on gut feelings, and reading some tealeaves:

Friday: Everybody is looking at Sestrière, but this is the stage it's all going down. Yellow Yates will be flying. Del Toro to ship a lot of time. Carapaz will be fine.

Saturday: Yellow Yates might crumble (not sure though, it's kind of a running gag that he implodes, but with this team he might actually hold on this time) Isaac will take back a bit of time, but not enough. Richie goes nuclear and takes La Maglia to Rome.

Gee will fill out the podium.

 

[movingtarget]

Carapaz look's the most likely challenger. Hard to know how much Yates has left. Maybe Gee will do something extra. UAE went from having four riders in the top 10 to having Del Toro regularly isolated on the climbs now. Losing riders hasn't helped them. If Carapaz can go up the road with another GC rider the alarm bells will be ringing.

 

[hfer07]

Egan should try something....

anyways, It's all about Del Toro vs Carapaz

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Looking at GC I'd not be surprised for everyone from Bernal down to Tiberi try to get in the break and a number of them will succeed. The start goes uphill fast, but not to difficult so I expect a larger break that actually can stay away and make the race harder in return because it needs to be controlled at some point because of GC positions. So better not let it get to far away.
True none of the mountains is considerably steep, but their also no false flats and it's 3 40+min climbs in a row, on stage 19. Fatigue will play a big enough role to enable some action I think, even though the steep parts are missing. Especially if the stage is ridden hard, which I expect.
My guess is that the accumulation of long climbs, when ridden at a good pace, will prove to much for Del Toro to keep Carapaz or Yates if on a good day from getting away from him.

 

[Andre]

Bardet must help his young teammate Poole into the top 10 for once rather than going for tv rides, otherwise his career will end in ignominy and disgrace. Already cruelly stole a TDF stage win from a prospect who was stronger than him, don't go out like this Romain.

"career will end in ignominy and disgrace"...Bardet in disgrace: never. Whatever he does, it will be glorious, and a career will end as wonderfully as can be.