Giro d'Italia Giro d'Italia stage 19 Biella – Champoluc 166km

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AlfaLum

Mar 13, 2021
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If I was UAE and del Toro I would gamble this stage and ride solely on the wheel of Carapaz.

If Yates, Gee, Caruso, Bernal, Pellizarri go up the road, just pretend you dont give a dime until Carapaz decides to work for it. Del Toro might be in pink, but by now I think they can give of the impression that it is actually Carapaz his giro to loose.

The only part where i would actually put pressure on the others might be the Panthaleon decent if you have satellite riders up the road.

Very excited for this stage and not as sure as others that Del Toro will collapse. This stage does not come after the rest day, it has very different weather and so the levels might be very different to the ones we saw on tuesday.
 
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Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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AlfaLum said:
If I was UAE and del Toro I would gamble this stage and ride solely on the wheel of Carapaz.

If Yates, Gee, Caruso, Bernal, Pellizarri go up the road, just pretend you dont give a dime until Carapaz decides to work for it. Del Toro might be in pink, but by now I think they can give of the impression that it is actually Carapaz his giro to loose.

The only part where i would actually put pressure on the others might be the Panthaleon decent if you have satellite riders up the road.

Very excited for this stage and not as sure as others that Del Toro will collapse. This stage does not come after the rest day, it has very different weather and so the levels might be very different to the ones we saw on tuesday.
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This is brutal stage in terms of elevation gain packed in not so long distance. Up & down almost all the time. It absolutely favours pure climbers. Del Toro doesn't have to collapse, if he's weaker climber than Carapaz it will show. That being said I hope the Maxican will fight well.
 
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AlfaLum

Mar 13, 2021
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Krzysztof_O said:
This is brutal stage in terms of elevation gain packed in not so long distance. Up & down almost all the time. It absolutely favours pure climbers. Del Toro doesn't have to collapse, if he's weaker climber than Carapaz it will show. That being said I hope the Maxican will fight well.
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I know it is a brutal climbing stage that suits pure climbers. And there is a decent chance that just like tuesday we will see that Del Toro needs to expands his zones further over the next couple of years to deal with these kind of stages on this level.

But then again I also know that this is a special kid. I already saw it in Avenir 2023, where he, as the sole rider from his team destroyed Riccitello and Piganzoli in that last stage. And I saw it again last wednesday when he bounced back.

There might just be a chance that with the better weather, del Toro can produce enough here to stay with Carapaz if he plays his cards ride. But I believe that he should waste his energy solely on staying with Carapaz.
 
Roku

Roku

Aug 1, 2016
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wheresmybrakes said:
I think Bernal has been bluffing bigger than the biggest of bluffs from Carapaz. He's been eyeing up these last 2 stages to blitz the GC and take pink. Or I could be wrong, and he's done for on the second climb and fall out of the top 10. Hoping for the former.
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Don't think you can bluff dropping from the second group of favourites and being 5 mins in arreas of pink. I think Del Toro will crack, or at least shed significant time today and tomorrow. I don't trust Simon Yates either. Carapaz is my favourite.

Watch out for Pellizarri who is too far on GC but is one of the best. Today's stage is perfect to try an attack from Saint Pantaleon. I would definitely try it if I were Bora.
 
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The Barb

Apr 14, 2009
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JasonFly said:
I live at the bottom of Saint Panthaleon, I know these roads very well.
The descents of Saint Panthaleon and Col de Joux are quite easy, it is very difficult if not impossible to make the difference downhill.
The long stretch from Antey to the bottom of Joux is large, has almost no bends and the wind will very probably be blowing against the riders.
This should discourage attacks from Saint Panthaleon.

Joux is quite an easy climb, large road, regular gradients, not the climb where I would expect much to be honest...
The first few kms are the hardest ones, if someone wants to attack should not wait too long.
The hardest gradients are found in the second half of the climb, but that section is quite short, less than 500m I think.

The stage design is a bit meh, the best finish would have certainly been Tsecore + Joux, the perfect combo of hard climb immediately followed by easier climb.

With this design I am not expecting much, I fail to see where Yates/Carapaz could make the difference.
The perfect launch pad is Tsecore, but it is too far from the finish.
The second opportunity could be the last 2km of Saint Panthaleon, but who will dare given the unfavorable descent that follows?

If I were Carapaz, I would try to ride the first two climbs with the team as hard as possible and fire the first bullet at the bottom of Joux.
Best case, you can get separation from Del Toro and be followed by Yates/Gee/Pellizzari.
If It doesn't work, second bullet at the hardest gradients.
If at that point Del Toro still follows, fold and think about Finestre.
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This is a quality post.

For what it’s worth, my main take on the stage is that Carapaz will not win. If you have a Betfair account, then lay him endlessly. He is far too short.

First, the breakaway actually has a decent chance (I’d say 40%, with Fortunato and Quintana the best prospects).

Secondly, if Carapaz drops Del Toro, there is a good chance that Gee and/or Pellizzari stay with him, in which case it’s a perfect “work with me and I’ll give you the stage win” scenario.

Carapaz’s abilities on long multi mountain climbs is a little overrated - but he might be the best tactician of this era.

I’m primarily backing Fortunato and Gee.
 
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Tim Cahill

May 6, 2021
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topcat said:
I'm cheering for the underdog from Team UAE.
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That's right, today's the day he moves into the top 10, Storer and Yates his rivals are on the ropes!!!

McNulty.png


I hear tell of a quite stirring raid being planned.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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KOM said:
TIL 15km at 7% "just isnt that selective" as one of the very few that dont have a "carnage psychosis" on this forum, I very much struggle to see where this odd
consensus came from all of the sudden
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7% is in that narrow range where it can really go either way and it depends a lot on a lot of other circumstances like wind, peloton size, etc. Also, it matters a lot on if it's really consistent, or if there's a harder section where in the climb it is.

It's also the sort of gradient where if you put 3 similar climbs in a row, the first 2 aren't gonna do much.
 
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matteof93

Oct 8, 2020
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In the meantime...I am planning the ride for tomorrow and where to watch the race. I live in a small town at the foot of the Montoso climb (does anyone remember Giro 2019 Cuneo-Pinerolo stage?). About 15 km from Pinerolo, close enough to many important climbs: Finestre, Sestriere, Montgenevre, Agnello, Sampeyre, Fauniera...

This is my plan for tomorrow. Start from home (early enough), easy warm up before the first climb (Colletta di Cumiana), descent to Giaveno/Avigliana (remember Sacra di San Michele?), then false flat until Susa, Finestre, descent, climb to Sestriere, watch Giro, descent to Pinerolo, back home.

download.png


ps: doing this also to prepare for the Fausto Coppi Granfondo. 172 km, 4300m elevation gain (Cuneo - Sampeyre - Colle di Sampeyre - Ponte Marmora - Esischie - Colle Fauniera - Demonte - Madonna del Colletto - Cuneo).
 
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