Giro d'Italia Stage 19: Brescia - Aprica (195km)

[issoisso]

According to the italian police, the race will proceed as planned, with the original route. (Stage 20)

 

[ergmonkey]

Tomorrow I'm hoping to see Garzelli and Simoni in the day-long breakaway. Neither is a GC threat and the old guys should still have their endurance, even though some of the speed is gone. Would be a beautiful swansong for each of them. I hope Garzelli can take the stage.

 

[hfer07]

Folks around here are counting off Sastre, perhaps doe to his discrete performances in the previous stages.....I think the danger lies there, since he could have saved some energy to dig deep in the coming two last stages. Basso & Evans seem to think that the overall is between them, and that's foolish, because whoever makes the move tomorrow, is going to be spent for the Saturday stage, which is another beast. Obviously Evans has the upper hand since he's better TT'er than the rest of his opponents, but he lost the TDF in that fashion, so he better off put some good gaps tomorrow and Saturday to go for the kill on Sunday. It will be exiting!!!!

 

[blaxland]

To be honest, acf, now is the time for the 'old' Evans to come out to play again. Evans shouldn't burn energy attacking because Basso will likely outclimb him. If Evans can stick with him on Mortirolo he has a chance of putting a bit of time into him on the shallower Aprica, and Evans will outsprint Basso to the line ten times out of ten. That right there is 16 seconds just on the line if they win the stage or are 3rd/4th; he could easily get four or five seconds on an uphill finish with a strong and powerful sprint. Do that twice, and that's 25 seconds. 17 seconds to pull back on the final ITT? Evans should be able to manage that. I don't see Evans distancing Basso on the Mortirolo to be honest. I wouldn't expect him to do so on the Gavia either, given that Evans was the hanger-on in the group on Monte Grappa (and was dropped at the last couple of hundred metres). But if he can stick to Basso like glue and make a nuisance of himself he can tire Basso out trying to attack him from the front (like happened to Evans himself on the Col de la Madeleine last year) and outsprint him, he'll be better placed. Of course, he can't really play the 'not coming to the front' card (also known as the 'Serpa Shuffle') until Arroyo and/or Porte have been sufficiently distanced otherwise he's just sabotaging both of them.

Agree 100% Libertine....this is Cadels best plan of defence for tonight,gain a few seconds with a sprint finish...Then pounce in the TT..

 

[curium]

I too can see Liquigas sending Nibali out and making Cadel pull Basso along. But Basso likes to attack in back-to-back mountain stages, and this one really fits his style, so he could put the heat on here, knowing others will be worn out tomorrow where he'll attack again.

I would say the two hardest climbs in cycling are the Zoncolon and Angliru. But many others could be listed. Lots of roads in Europe as steep, or steeper than these, but not raced.

Bear with me as I'm relatively new to this cycling lark but, surely if Nibali attacks Basso has to go with him and Cadel just sticks with Basso. He knows that Basso won't allow Nibali to take too much time from him for fear he then becomes a direct GC threat.

My point is that Cadel just needs to keep calm and stick with Basso (they both need to keep an eye on Arroyo) and attack when he feels his chance is best.

 

[badboyberty]

Bear with me as I'm relatively new to this cycling lark but, surely if Nibali attacks Basso has to go with him and Cadel just sticks with Basso. He knows that Basso won't allow Nibali to take too much time from him for fear he then becomes a direct GC threat.

My point is that Cadel just needs to keep calm and stick with Basso (they both need to keep an eye on Arroyo) and attack when he feels his chance is best.

A victory for the team is always paramount to individual wishes so, no, Basso won't chase Nibali. Same situation as the 2008 Tour when the Schlecklet had to sit up and wait for Cuddles to burn out trying to chase down Sastre before he could attack himself.

Arroyo is the wildcard here, if he doesn't haemorrhage time early in the climb Leakygas and Cuddles will have to work together to make a gap open up or all they'll be racing for is second.

 

[Ferminal]

A victory for the team is always paramount to individual wishes so, no, Basso won't chase Nibali. Same situation as the 2008 Tour when the Schlecklet had to sit up and wait for Cuddles to burn out trying to chase down Sastre before he could attack himself.

Arroyo is the wildcard here, if he doesn't haemorrhage time early in the climb Leakygas and Cuddles will have to work together to make a gap open up or all they'll be racing for is second.

Basso would prefer individual glory a lot more than Nibali winning.

I think people are overstating the Nibali card a bit too much. He might have a dig at the bottom of Mortirolo as part of softening Cuddles up but he's not going on a 60km breakaway to try and force a chase.

 

[theswordsman]

Liquigas extended their sponsorship, as was in the news earlier, but they also extended Basso & Nibali for two more years.

http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=26780

 

[Aus_Orca]

Agree with some of the other posters here, cuddles just needs to stick fast to Basso today and then try to get the bonus on the line. Both have to be careful to make sure they distance arroyo though, i don't think that will be a problem but i must admit he has been impressive to hang on like he has!

 

[Sasquatch]

lol

Evans won't stay with Basso. He was wheelsucking on the stage Basso won and Basso still rode away from him.

 

[Night Rider]

Basso or Evans ftw on this stage with a slight advantage to Evans I think. He looked far stronger on the Kronplatz a couple of days ago.

 

[davis_123]

lol

Evans won't stay with Basso. He was wheelsucking on the stage Basso won and Basso still rode away from him.

The day before that Basso wheel sucked for 35km while Evans chased Nibali.

Obviously the next day Evans was going to be tired and Basso fresh, after the rest day though it was Evans who took charge again in the Mountain TT.

Evans should be relaxing today, he just needs to get over the big climb together with Basso. Liquigas will work to get rid of the Pink jersey and may even waste Nibali doing so, Basso will not attack they will use Nibali if anything.

Evans really just needs to sit on his wheel, respond only to Basso's attack & take off with 1km to go up Aprica to get 10 seconds + time bonuses on Basso.

Of course i'd love to see him attack and take 1min+ over the top of the Mortirolo but he really doesn't need to since he can easy take 20+ seconds from Basso in the ITT (He took 21 in the 8.6km Prolouge ITT so 20+ in km should be easy)

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Arroyo is the wildcard here, if he doesn't haemorrhage time early in the climb Leakygas and Cuddles will have to work together to make a gap open up or all they'll be racing for is second.

Idunno, even in the unlikely case he holds on, Arroyo could easily lose a minute in the TT, he TTs worse than Mosquera.

 

[issoisso]

Idunno, even in the unlikely case he holds on, Arroyo could easily lose a minute in the TT, he TTs worse than Mosquera.

He could win awards for "Most Vertical TT Position"

 

[Mellow Velo]

A cavalry charge onto the foot of the climb, which will select a group of no more than 20 riders, within the first km.

I doubt very much that Arroyo can climb the Mortirolo quick enough to stay in pink. Where we had all single riders on the Zoncolan, we usually get groups of two or three on the MR.
Gaps that open there, tend to grow substantially on the drag up to Aprica.

Talking of which, today's Aprica area forecast:
Fine and sunny to start, showers by 2pm, stormy by 5pm.
Could make for some interesting descending, or, it might just hold fine.

Tomorrow's forecast doesn't seem quite as bad as was predicted, yesterday.

 

[Jan the Man]

Sastre is the spanner in the works.

He is the sort of guy who has the guts to attack on one of the early climbs. If he goes they have to react because even though he has not shown great form he is only 2 mins behind Basso and less behind Evans.

Arroyo will do ok and he might still be in pink at the end of today. I cannot see him holding on tomorrow though, regardless.

 

[theswordsman]

I knew I'd find you here.

I can't tell the timing of it, but some time in the past 5 days, what you expected from Bordry did happen. I've got a deja vu feeling about the article, but can't say for sure if I saw it before this morning.

http://informe21.com/actualidad/lance-armstrong-devuelve-golpe-floyd-landis-las-acusaciones-dopaje

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

to the dutch users:

have there been any news about Mollemas illness or plans for tomorrow in durch media today? After stage 17 I read that he still wasn't at 100%. Any updates?

He's been getting better, he felt much better two days ago (although barely hanging on), and yesterdays flat stage should have given enough recovery.
If not, well, then he had 2,5 weeks of good racing, and at least gained a lot of experience

 

[killswitch]

Can Arroyo descend well?

 

[Susan Westemeyer]

Greipel will not start today.

Susan

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Can Arroyo descend well?

Yea, he's a pretty good descender. One of the better ones out there, but he keeps getting shown up by Luís León and Valverde!

 

[Ferminal]

Greipel will not start today.

Susan

Great way to honour a stage win

And they're off for the day.

Lloyd needs to get in the break if he wants to hang on to Green at least until tomorrow.

If he doesn't Cuddles and ET are going to share the 3 main classifications between them...

Dean and Hondo also DNS.

I assume they will be the last of the unforced retirements.

 

[Sasquatch]

How many KOM points are on offer today, excluding the last climb?

 

[Tuarts]

For the GC: I think at the base of the Motirolo, it will be Prominentitio "Uno" Italiano who escapes and he'll take Prominentitio "Duo" Italiano and Borat Kazakistano with him.

This will make Coccolare Australiano have to chase whist Uno's team-mate Maglia Rosa Italiano conserves his energy until tomorrow.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

I see tomorrow as being more suitable for a long-range Sastre attack - today I think he'll just try to hang in there

Arroyo might be able to find one or two unlikely allies for the Mortirolo descent and Aprica drag. Vino and Cunego could prove very handy

Nibali is the wild card for me. If Basso drops Evans on Mortirolo and Nibali hangs with Evans then drops him on the descent the race will be over for Evans. If Basso can't drop either things could get very interesting if Nibali takes off and Evans decides to play poker and not chase very hard