python said:
ttt contributions of individual riders are not always best indexed by a riders tt record or performances. in a tt, ideally, a rider keeps/tries to keep his effort at a steady threshold, say 90% of VO2 max watts. in a ttt the effort is about 100-105% vO2 max for 30-40 seconds at the front and 80-90% whilst off the front.
riders with anaerobic talents do well. dyacheko is one.
dyachenko is considered by vino the greatest kazakh talent, his replacement if he works hard.
That sounded silly. 100% is your maximum. There is no more. Ever. There is your maximum and then you collapse. VO2 max is an exhaustion test, not a threshold test. TTT's are ridden at threshold. The TT and TTT are about gauging your threshold and at times touching close to your exhaustion. You go over 95% of your maximum effort before the last section and you blow out. Always, no exceptions.
Now to who to expect strong stuff from.
1. Garmin - sure they lost CVV but they have Millar so close to the leaders jersey. I think he'll be in pink and I'll cheer for that. Also they had bobridge and Meyer drop out the back of yesterdays stage. To the uninformed, those boys can do a killer chrono and get better when in a squad. Garmin will be fine and will either win or come in the first three by a small margin.
2. Saxo - Sure they don't have Spartacus but Gustav Larson is a great rider in his own right. Saxo still have a lot to offer. They should do well. Porte could be in Pink because he is close.
3. Liquigas - The other team I expect something from. Had no hiccups and are doing well. The TTT is their chance to prove they are serious contenders. If they don't make an imprint on stage 4 I can pretty much discount them doing anything else serious for the remainder of the Giro.
Surprises: Katusha, Cervelo and Astana. All should do well. I don't think Vino will be in pink after this stage but the Kazakh squad and the Russian squad along with Sastre's mob should do well enough to not have the GC time blown apart on stage 4.
I don't rate Sky at all for the win or top 3. It would be nice to see them all fall over again. Can we get a 3 from 3. Three falls in three consecutive stages! I can hope. Hopefully BMC can pull something out to avoid putting Evans in dire peril. That guy deserves a lucky break.