Giro GC turnarounds: where do you see them happenning?

[roundabout]

GC after stage 15

Pos Nome Naz Team Tempo Dist
1 CONTADOR Alberto ESP SBS 62:14:42 0:00
2 SCARPONI Michele ITA LAM 62:19:02 4:20
3 NIBALI Vincenzo ITA LIQ 62:19:53 5:11
4 GADRET John FRA ALM 62:20:50 6:08
5 NIEVE ITURALDE Mikel ESP EUS 62:21:45 7:03
6 RUJANO GUILLEN Jose' VEN AND 62:23:21 8:39
7 MENCHOV Denis RUS GEO 62:23:28 8:46
8 KREUZIGER Roman CZE AST 62:23:40 8:58
9 RODRIGUEZ Joaquin ESP KAT 62:24:02 9:20
10 ARROYO DURAN David ESP MOV 62:24:12 9:30

Supposing that there are no bad days (as in 20 minutes behind in the grupetto) who can move up (or down) with 3 decisive stages remaining?

Scarponi was very impressive on stage 15 and seems willing to attack if he feels good enough. For a big gear riding guy, seems to go well on the steep. Decent TT but will probably be slower than Nibali over flat 30k and very close IMO in the MTT.

Nibali is the best (arguably) of people 2-6 in the final TT and has a relatively big gap over Menchov. Will probably measure the effort well enough in the MTT. Finestre descent and an 'easy' final climb to his advantage. The battle between him and Scarponi will be decided on the Finestre.

Gadret given the form will do well in the MTT and won't have any trouble on the Finstre. In my opinion he won't gain time overall on Nibali and Scarponi in the final week.

Thoughts?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

There's still people who can fall out of the top 10 as well. As number 11 Anton is also still in the 9 minutes grade. And Kruijswijk (12th) is only 2 minutes behind

 

[roundabout]

True. Anyone can add their battles they are interested in outside the current top-10.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

The flat ITT is going to be seriously bad news for Rodriquez and Gadret.

Gadret has a bit of a cushion on the TT guys behind him and he's climbing extremely well. But the existence of the flat TT means that there's no prospect of him making up significant time on those ahead of him, unless one of them has the kind of bad day this thread excludes.

Rodriquez needs to really whack everybody on a big climb if he's going to move up because he's going to lose a lot of time on the TT to the guys immediately ahead of him.

 

[jens_attacks]

my heart goes with both gadret and rujano getting on the podium.of course very difficult to happen but finestre will be a showdown.
but in the flat itt they must do some magic tricks,the rides of their life.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

my heart goes with both gadret and rujano getting on the podium.of course very difficult to happen but finestre will be a showdown.
but in the flat itt they must do some magic tricks,the rides of their life.

Rujano looks like a guy who should time trial like Rodriquez or Gadret, or even worse. But people here keep saying that he's actually not bad.

I have no idea if they are right.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

my heart goes with both gadret and rujano getting on the podium.of course very difficult to happen but finestre will be a showdown.
but in the flat itt they must do some magic tricks,the rides of their life.

Gadret will get BUTCHERED on the flat ITT.
I mean in the road on Orvieto he got dropped on the flat by Weening for crying out loud.

Gadrets records on FLAT itt's is horrible. Even worse than J.Rodriguez

 

[Squire]

Unless Rujano goes mad in the MTT and Finestre (I'm sure he'll try), the podium is between Scarponi, Nibali and Gadret. I think Scarponi will take 2nd, as he's consistent and a decent TTer (and has learned to not blow himself up trying to follow Contador). Gadret needs a brilliant MTT (30 sec on Nibali) and a couple of minutes on Finestre to stand a chance of holding on in the final TT. I don't think he can do it, but he did very well today considering that he in the past has seemed to be at his best in MTFs without tough climbs preceding them. He could well gain some time at Finestre/Sestriere.

How's Nieve's TT? Can't see him holding on to 5th, but he should make the top 10.

I see Arroyo losing his top 10 spot to Anton at Sestriere. If things stay roughly as they are, Menchov can get 4th overall in the final TT.

Hoping for some high GC breakaways during the intermediate stages.

 

[Lanark]

Gadret will get BUTCHERED on the flat ITT.
I mean in the road on Orvieto he got dropped on the flat by Weening for crying out loud.

Gadrets records on FLAT itt's is horrible. Even worse than J.Rodriguez

Gadret is a horrible time trialist, but I don't think he has anything to fear of Nieve (a quick look at his CQ-results suggests he is a terrible TT'er as well) and Rujano. He has three minutes on Menchov and Kreuziger now, that won't be enough for a 30km time trial, he will probalbly lose more that a minute per 10 km on Menchov.

He does have the MTT of course. He had a great Krohnplatz time trial last year, and he seems to be in better shape. This MTT isn't as hard however, but enough to to increase his gap on Menchov and Kreuziger. I think a 4th place is still the most likely for him.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Nobody will be butchered in a 30km narraow and cornered city curcuit. There won't be great time gaps there.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Gadret is a horrible time trialist, but I don't think he has anything to fear of Nieve (a quick look at his CQ-results suggests he is a terrible TT'er as well) and Rujano. He has three minutes on Menchov and Kreuziger now, that won't be enough for a 30km time trial, he will probalbly lose more that a minute per 10 km on Menchov.

He does have the MTT of course. He had a great Krohnplatz time trial last year, and he seems to be in better shape. This MTT isn't as hard however, but enough to to increase his gap on Menchov and Kreuziger. I think a 4th place is still the most likely for him.

I doubt anyone in the Top 15 will loose 3 minutes on that course

 

[The Hitch]

June 6th -8 CAS Contador hearing.

 

[roundabout]

Good one, Hitch.

Should have been provisional GC.

 

[The Hitch]

Neither Gadret nor Nieve have ever really had to try in a itt. They will probably lose lots of time though you dont know for sure. With Purito vuelta we all said he never had to try in a tt so probably would not lose 8 minutes and he didnt prove cooperative.

Speak of the devil, wtf is up. Probably spent too much energy in Ardennes. He wont make top 10.

Gadret came 3rd last year on Kronplatz beating Basso Nibali Vino everyone bar Garzelli and Evans. Now nevgal aint no Kronplatz but Gadret 2010 aint no Gadret 2011 if you know what i mean.

And in a tt you cant say they got lucky cos everybody goes full out, especially Basso going for gc so if Gadret can put in a similar performance on Nevgal well he can get something.

Then again Nibali didnt come that far back in Kronplatz and the first half here is basically flat (first 2k downhill at -2%) so he could make some time in these sections.

 

[maltiv]

Gadret will get BUTCHERED on the flat ITT.
I mean in the road on Orvieto he got dropped on the flat by Weening for crying out loud.

Gadrets records on FLAT itt's is horrible. Even worse than J.Rodriguez

No surprise given that AG2R supposedly doesn't even give its riders a TT bike to train on.

 

[Arnout]

Who cares about TTs anyway, they're the boring part of stage racing.

 

[BullsFan22]

Hoping Menchov can work some magic and live up to his '9' index! Seriously though, he never, ever seems to want to attack. Even when he won his Vueltas and the Giro two years ago, he rarely attacked. I don't know how capable he is to attack and get some time over the guys ahead of him, but he needs to change up his tactics, if he is capable at all. Gadret and Rujano are wildcards for the podium, but they are gonna have to ride with Contador in the remaining mtn stages. If Contador decides to attack, and they go with him, then yeah, good chances for them, but again, their itt abilities aren't that good, so we'll see.

As an aside, it's kind of weird watching a guy (Contador), racing throughout the Spring when he tested positive for a banned substance 6 months ago. It baffles me the sort of precedents the UCI sets, it really does.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Nibali is more suited to time trialling up a mountain. Diesel engines are good at this, as they set their pace and don't need to react to other people.

Today will have taken a lot out of Nieve. I wouldn't be surprised if he drops to 11th or 12th by the end of the race, but I hope he stays in the 10.

I don't think anybody will lose 3 minutes in 32km (though J-Rod will try), but it will mean that losing mere seconds in the next few days can make a mess of it for them.

Finestre is brutal, and anybody could have a day like di Luca had on Mortirolo in 2008.

 

[icefire]

Arroyo's ITT skills are on par with those of Purito

 

[Barrus]

Gadret is a horrible time trialist, but I don't think he has anything to fear of Nieve (a quick look at his CQ-results suggests he is a terrible TT'er as well) and Rujano. He has three minutes on Menchov and Kreuziger now, that won't be enough for a 30km time trial, he will probalbly lose more that a minute per 10 km on Menchov.

He does have the MTT of course. He had a great Krohnplatz time trial last year, and he seems to be in better shape. This MTT isn't as hard however, but enough to to increase his gap on Menchov and Kreuziger. I think a 4th place is still the most likely for him.

What you can see in most of the MTTs in the giro so far, strong riders that can TT quite well often times ride a good MTT without losing as much time as one would expect to happen

 

[Squire]

Speak of the devil, wtf is up. Probably spent too much energy in Ardennes. He wont make top 10.

Why not? He's been going reasonably well in the trilogy from hell. Lost a few seconds because of his attack on Grossglockner. He also does well in uphill TTs, and I don't see why he can't put some more time into some of his top10 rivals on stage 20. If the final TT is as technical as Bavarianrider says, he shouldn't lose huge amounts against power TTers.

 

[roundabout]

TT map

http://www.gazzetta.it/Speciali/Giroditalia/2011/immagini/zoom/planimetria_21.jpg

While it's nothing like the almost cornerless grind of the Tour last year it's still posible for Gadret to lose quite a bit of time there.

 

[Midnightfright]

I Think Scarponi and Nibali is goign to be very very close and will be decided in the TT. Except for that i can see Anton edging into top 10 Menchov will do a good timetrial and edge up Nieve will drop down after his performance today it took alot out of him. My final predictions and i know its awfully early are

1. Contador
2.Nibali
3.Scarponi
4.Menchov
5.Kreuizger
6.Gadret
7.Arroyo
8.Anton
9.Sivistov
10.Rujano

 

[roundabout]

ooh, you're being too harsh on the dwarf there. To me it's far from certain that even Menchov will(can) pass him.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Lol, Kreuziger in 5, Sivtsov back in the top 10 etc.. It's completely hilarious.

Not gonna happen.