Giro GC turnarounds: where do you see them happenning?

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

There's still people who can fall out of the top 10 as well. As number 11 Anton is also still in the 9 minutes grade. And Kruijswijk (12th) is only 2 minutes behind

a real shame he lost time on stage 11. He'd be very close to the 10.

The way this Giro is going it's not easy to predict. But certainly, guys who have been going backwards the past few days, especially Kreuziger and Sivtsov, won't be going forward.

I think

1 Contador
2 Scarponi
3 Nibali
4 Rujano
5 Gadret
6 Menchov
7 Kreuziger
8 Arroyo
9 Anton
10 Kruijswijk (pure hope, not gonna happen tho)

(11 Rodriguez after horrible ITT)

1. conta
2. Nibbles
3. Scarponi
4. Menchov
5. Rujano
6. Gadret
7. Anton
8. Kreuziger
9. J-rod
10. Arroyo

However like some have mentioned, the 3rd week will be unpredicatble. Some will crack. But I think we have a fair indication of the top 20.

anyway as for the stages...
16- will be interesting to see if there are any big losers. Nervous about Kruijswijk here. J-rod wont be that bad here, milan is what he should worry about.
17- surely break away have 17 and 18 in mind. But I somehow think Nibbles will be eyeing the Aprica descent. 6-7%for 11km the descent. And then 7km straight. Could be his big chance for a stage win. I however have little clue on how techincal this descent is.
18- Again nibbles might try something. Maybe. I dunno.
In the CN stage profiles, Scarponi suggest this stage is more then it appears.
19- Wont see too much gaps here, but there could be a loseer to two.
20- Could be epic. finestre is very tough. Almost 10% average. The descent looks good also. After that not really a steep finish, but the damage could be done already. I tip AC takes this to wrap up a dominant Giro.
21- Some guys will be losers here, I think Nibbles will just do enought to take 2nd.

 

[usedtobefast]

i like Alberto for the win. after that, i think things will shift. the TT stages are
hard.

 

[roundabout]

1 CONTADOR Alberto ESP SBS 62:43:37 0:00
2 SCARPONI Michele ITA LAM 62:48:35 4:58
3 NIBALI Vincenzo ITA LIQ 62:49:22 5:45
4 GADRET John FRA ALM 62:51:12 7:35
5 RUJANO GUILLEN Jose' VEN AND 62:52:55 9:18
6 NIEVE ITURALDE Mikel ESP EUS 62:52:59 9:22
7 MENCHOV Denis RUS GEO 62:53:15 9:38
8 KREUZIGER Roman CZE AST 62:53:24 9:47
9 RODRIGUEZ Joaquin ESP KAT 62:54:02 10:25
10 ANTON Igor ESP EUS 62:54:35 10:58

Not much change apart from Anton passing Arroyo and Rujano passing Nieve. Rujano is the biggest gainer in the battle against Gadret but gains only 13 seconds on Menchov. Mr bike change loses 16 seconds to Kreuziger. Nieve was always likely to slip back. Of the people 2-10 on GC before today only 3 had relatively bad rides.

Finestre and TT to go. The podium is almost settled, Gadret would need a super day on Finestre to get 4th with Rujano and Menchov his biggest competition.

 

[Barrus]

I'm thinking if Kruijswijk continues like this and ride a good final TT he might possibly just make it into the top 10. I hope it for him and although I think it will be unlikely I will be rooting for him to do it

 

[greenedge]

Menchov's turnaround will come on the last 2 days.

 

[Bavarianrider]

They have shortened the final TT by 5,5km
Sorry but the Giro ís such a crap race.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I'm thinking if Kruijswijk continues like this and ride a good final TT he might possibly just make it into the top 10. I hope it for him and although I think it will be unlikely I will be rooting for him to do it

Forget it there's a bunch of people behind and in front of him who are no danger in breakaway stages.

While Kruijswijk himself is a danger for the white jersey and therefore not allowed in any break. So it will be hard to even consolidate his position

 

[Frosty]

Siutsou got time today and now sits at the top of the 9-minute tree. He's been losing time on the mountain stages though so stage 20 will probably see him slip back quite a few places, he only has a minute in hand on 10th place.

I fancy Anton to jump up a few places, he had his bad day after his stage win but should do well on stage 20. Not sure how far Nieve will fall, i dont think his TT will help him. Maybe just slip out of top 10.

Tomorrow sees a good chance for a break. Number 1-13 wont be allowed in a break, 14 and 16 should be tired from yesterday, maybe its time for the 15th place guy (Cataldo) to get himself in a break and try to punch into the top 10? 17th downwards could also make a go of it (Garzelli, Sella, plus Pinotti or Lovkvist if they are recovered from their illnesses) but the time gaps start going up quite a bit by that point so the break would have to get a lot of time.

Stage 19 could see somebody try to jump up places by getting in the break but they run the risk of tiring themselves out for stage 20.

 

[roundabout]

GC after stage 20 (top 10 only)

1 CONTADOR Alberto ESP SBS 83:34:25 0:00
2 SCARPONI Michele ITA LAM 83:39:43 5:18
3 NIBALI Vincenzo ITA LIQ 83:40:39 6:14
4 GADRET John FRA ALM 83:42:14 7:49
5 RODRIGUEZ Joaquin ESP KAT 83:43:52 9:27
6 RUJANO GUILLEN Jose' VEN AND 83:44:48 10:23
7 KREUZIGER Roman CZE AST 83:45:03 10:38
8 MENCHOV Denis RUS GEO 83:45:16 10:51
9 KRUIJSWIJK Steven NED RAB 83:47:21 12:56
10 NIEVE ITURALDE Mikel ESP EUS 83:47:22 12:57

Despite the various ebbs and flows not much has changed in terms of time gaps since stage 15.

Scarponi gains 5 seconds on Nibali, Gadret's time loss was due to the MTT (the flatter part of it).

Rodriguez makes a jump from 9th to 5th mostly due to having the balls (and the form I suppose) to try something on stage 20.

Rujano had to make up for stage 19 where he was stronger than the result suggested. In the end he loses 4 seconds to Kreuziger and gains 21 on Menchov.

In the end the biggest difference was due to Rujano being badly positioned (twice), Gadret's mediocre MTT (he lost a lot more time on the flat than I expected) and Rodriguez doing what this thread asked to do.

Unofficial partial GC of stages 16-20.

Contador
Rodriguez +0:07
Scarponi +0:58
Nibali +1:03
Kreuziger +1:40
Gadret +1:41
Kruijswijk +1:42
Rujano +1:44
Menchov +2:05
......
Nieve +5.54

For comparison stages 14-15 same 9 riders

Contador
Rodriguez +2:54
Scarponi +1:04
Nibali +2:02
Kreuziger +5:29
Gadret +2:02
Kruijswijk +4:49
Rujano +2:42
Menchov +3:40

Even taking into account that Contador didn't have to ride flat out in the final week and the gaps could have been bigger then it shows who important stages 14 and 15 turned out to be.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Sivtsov is only 33 seconds off Nieve, he could still manage the top 10.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Guess I was right about my Kruijswijk top 10 prediction
Slightly off with Rujano and especially Anton tho

 

[RedheadDane]

It seems to be the general expectation that Rujano is going to fall slightly during the ITT toda.
Fall in time that is, hopefully he won't go all Chicken.

 

[Squire]

1. Contador
2. Scarponi
3. Nibali
4. Gadret
5. Rujano
6. Menchov
7. Kreuziger
8. Anton
9. Rodriguez
10. Arroyo

Not too bad. It was a fairly conservative guess though.
Top 4 spot on, while I was quite right about Rujano, Menchov & Kreuziger. Not even a minute between them. I underestimated Rodriguez a bit, but so did everybody else as well, and overestimated Anton and Arroyo.

 

[Frosty]

Guess I was right about my Kruijswijk top 10 prediction
Slightly off with Rujano and especially Anton tho

Shame u changed your mind then

I'm thinking if Kruijswijk continues like this and ride a good final TT he might possibly just make it into the top 10. I hope it for him and although I think it will be unlikely I will be rooting for him to do it

Forget it there's a bunch of people behind and in front of him who are no danger in breakaway stages.

While Kruijswijk himself is a danger for the white jersey and therefore not allowed in any break. So it will be hard to even consolidate his position

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I know I was pessimistic and ****ed off at that moment because Nieve breaked himself into the top 5 with 4/5 minutes on Kruijswijk at that moment.

But if you look a few stages later in the thread topic I already believed in it again. You can't hold a spur of the moment/adrenaline thing against me

Kinda sad even that you have the time to even go through all my posts (which are plenty) just for that, lol. Pathetic even.

 

[Frosty]

I know I was pessimistic and ****ed off at that moment because Nieve breaked himself into the top 5 with 4/5 minutes on Kruijswijk at that moment.

But if you look a few stages later in the thread topic I already believed in it again. You can't hold a spur of the moment/adrenaline thing against me

Kinda sad even that you have the time to even go through all my posts (which are plenty) just for that, lol. Pathetic even.

Lol

If you're going to predict that something both will and wont happen and then try and take credit for whichever one happens then you cant complain about something mentioning your earlier post that said the opposite Fair do's though you did mention the ones you were off with, i thought that Anton would go for GC in the last few stages and end up in the top 10 too, possibly as high as 5th

Oh and as for going through all your posts, i must admit it took a lot of time to look at what was written on the previous page in this thread, no need to go through all your posts. As for writing something different a few stages later, well it was all pretty much over by then.

FWIW i only remember your post because i stood to win quite a lot if Kruijswijk did finish in the top 10 and so was keeping a close eye on the situation. I was surprised that you were so downhearted.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

well once the top 15 starts breaking away and kruijswijk cleary wasn't allowed that steep i immediately start to think the worst

generally although I cheer them on i'm often quite pessimistic about the chances of dutch riders. More than often I expect far less of them than they achieve. Only Gesink really ever barely suprises me anymore. But that's logical with all his top 3/5/10 placings nearly everywhere he starts

 

[Midnightfright]

I Think Scarponi and Nibali is goign to be very very close and will be decided in the TT. Except for that i can see Anton edging into top 10 Menchov will do a good timetrial and edge up Nieve will drop down after his performance today it took alot out of him. My final predictions and i know its awfully early are

1. Contador
2.Nibali
3.Scarponi
4.Menchov
5.Kreuizger
6.Gadret
7.Arroyo
8.Anton
9.Sivistov
10.Rujano

Well im fairly happy with my predictions. Most impressed that i predicted Sivstov picking up time in a break. Most surprised at J rod after being totallted uninspired by his 1st 2 weeks. Most impressed by Krussy Kruijwisk. Certainly dont think my prediction was so bad it deserved to be mocked cough DekkerTifiosi cough

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Nibali above Scarponi... Menchov in 4? Anton and Arroyo still there. Rujano too far down. Meh, I think my mocking was just

just kidding.

 

[Midnightfright]

Nibali above Scarponi... Menchov in 4? Anton and Arroyo still there. Rujano too far down. Meh, I think my mocking was just

just kidding.

I was surprised Anton didnt hang in there the rest not so surprised about. And i did expect Menchov to sneak up a bit almost unnoticed surely it wouldnt of been that surprising.