auscyclefan94 said:
I dislike the course. It is too mountain heavy. Zomegnan has totally neglected the sprinters and hasn't put in enough time trial km's. The best gt route this year is la vuelta.
He hardly neglected the sprinters.
When the route was announced, Petacchi said there were 7 or 8 stages he thought he could win. As I look at it, there are seven sprint stages (2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10 12). Four ended in a bunch sprint, two ended with late attackers beating the bunch, and one was tragically neutralised. Should there be ten stages sprinters can win, with at least six or seven "dead certs"? Ok, last year there was one sprint after Zoncolan, the one Greipel took, which was probably the most forgettable stage in the whole race, along with the one Cofidis (forget who) won the same week. Last year there were eight sprint stages for a total of five bunch sprints, hardly a big difference.
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I am actually finding the race very good to watch, each stage has lived up to its expectations, some even more so (5 and 8 come to mind). Montevergine is probably the real downer for me, even thought I expected it, it was booooring. The break was good on 11, but I guess the stage probably should have been longer. Orvieto was a very good stage, what did people think, we were going to get ones and twos coming across like last year?
The course is hardly different compared with last year. Zoncolan and Kronplatz were the biggest stages, on either side of the rest day. This year Zoncolan and the following day are the biggest stages, just before the rest day. Last year we had Mortirolo bringing it home in the final week, this year we have Finestre. The final MTF was an epic stage (Tonale?) on paper but lacked the finish to be damaging.
In terms of difficulty:
Orvieto <<< Montalcino (due to rain)
Montervergine << Terminillo
Etna > Monte Grappa
Stage 11 <<< L'Aquila
Grossglockner (no 2010 equivalent).
Zoncolan (with Crostis) >> Zoncolan
Nevegal << Kronplatz
Macugnaga = Stage Cofidis won
Giau-Fedaia-Gardeccia >> Gavia-Tonale (but a time difference here).
Finestre-Sestriere = Mortirolo-Aprica
If this field was running last year, what would be different? Contador might have tested his legs on Terminillo. Grappa would have been the same, possibly even worse with this field as Contador/Rujano may not have gone away with the descent in their mind. Zoncolan... same stage basically. Contador and Rujano take more time on Kronplatz. We go into the final two big days knowing that Contador is comfortably the best, with Rujano trying to make up for silly early losses. I can't see too much changing. Contador has a winning lead which he has earned on two regulation GT MTFs. If this was July, he could have done the same thing, but on Plateau de Beille and Luz Ardiden, whilst everyone else is waiting for Galibier and the Alpe.
What if we played them on the 2009 course...
Trying to compare 2011 and 2010 is futile. We had the crazy stages to begin with in The Netherlands, and it continued in Italy for the remainder of the first week. You could race the same course 100 times and you would be lucky to have something similar happen 5 times. Of course, what made 2010 supreme was the efforts of a few, in particular I think Vino and Evans, who raced every second of every stage, and then it was Basso in the mountains.
I enjoy watching the best stage racer we may ever see go about his business, I'm not going to complain because someone is "too good". Scarponi is
more aggressive this year than last, where he just hung on over Grappa and Mortirolo, and got dropped on Zoncolan. Nibali last year had a purpose, but we should look at Nibali's Vuelta for what he was going to do, and thus far he hasn't deviated from that position. Kreuziger is much the same, riding somewhat of a measured race. Behind them you have Rodriguez and Anton, who don't quite look to be their best, but they tried yesterday and we will probably see more of them in the next two stages.
Things could be more exciting, and with more tension if Contador wasn't there. Should we blame RFEC. Should we blame Ricco for not knowing how to dope? Should we blame Scarponi for going too hard in March? Nibali for being too defensive? Anton and Rodriguez for not being at their best? Yes, if all those went our way things would be better, but this is the hand the Giro, and us as viewers have been dealt.
In saying all that, the Montevergine and Macugnaga "MTFs" are excessive, and Grossglockner probably wasn't needed. Two of those three could have been purged, maybe for one more sprint stage, or an ITT. What difference does it make? More ITT distance would probably make things worse, given that the main attacker, Rujano, is a lesser time trial amongst his top5 rivals, so they would ride more defensive, and Rujano can hardly be more aggressive. Contador meanwhile is the best TTer amongst his top5 rivals, so it's just more stages which suit him.