Green Jersey: Place you bets

[El Pistolero]

Thor lost a few seconds on the 1st stage.

And again today.

 

[Fus087]

The green jersey is Gilbert's. Only Rojas could endanger him, but Gilbert could go in the break on some mountain stages and make up the points he loses in the mass sprints (if he loses points in those at all).

 

[Mambo95]

The green jersey is Gilbert's. Only Rojas could endanger him, but Gilbert could go in the break on some mountain stages and make up the points he loses in the mass sprints (if he loses points in those at all).

There are four sprinters stages to go (10,11,15 and 21) - no uphill bits in the last 5km. If Cav wins all four (and that's certainly not impossible) that's 180 points and the others won't get close to him.
The chances are he will pick up at least 120 points in those four stages. So that's 100 points Gilbert and Rojas have to pick up somewhere.

 

[hrotha]

The green jersey is Gilbert's. Only Rojas could endanger him, but Gilbert could go in the break on some mountain stages and make up the points he loses in the mass sprints (if he loses points in those at all).

And why wouldn't Rojas follow him in those breaks?

 

[jsem94]

Come to think of it that's the profile for tomorrow.

Here's today's one.

http://inrng.com/medias/TdF/TDF11_ET08_PS.jpg

It has Gilbert written all over it.

 

[palmerq]

I think cavendish has this easily, he has shown he can sprint all tour, he will win the remaining bunch sprints in his sleep, even if it is a break that wins the stage cavendish will still win the sprint for the other placings... The only guy that can beat him is rojas and he is not good enough... Cavendish has to make a mess of this for someone else to win, he can et points in the intermediate sprints and I think gilbert will fade and rojas is not good enough to make up the points difference cav will take on the flat stages... Gilbert will need a 45 maybe 46 point lead over cav going into the final stage in paris... cavendish has this easy

 

[El Pistolero]

And why wouldn't Rojas follow him in those breaks?

Because he's not an as good climber

Besides there's only 2 real mass sprints left this Tour.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

The route and the new system has made this Green Jersey pretty memorable, even in the first week. What most of us (I think) assumed was a reformulation for Cavendish has put many others in contention, and many different styles. Gilbert vs. Cav vs. Rojas is way more exciting IMO than a contest of mass sprint finishes, or nabbing points in every break.

I hope this dynamic continues

 

[hrotha]

Because he's not an as good climber

Besides there's only 2 real mass sprints left this Tour.

Can Gilbert drop Rojas when Contador couldn't? How will you solve this fanboy conundrum?

 

[Mambo95]

Besides there's only 2 real mass sprints left this Tour.

Really? Which of these won't come down to a sprint?

Stage 11

Stage 15

Stage 21

I'm fairly confident stage 10 will as well.

 

[El Pistolero]

Can Gilbert drop Rojas when Contador couldn't? How will you solve this fanboy conundrum?

Contador dropped Rojas today.

 

[hrotha]

Contador dropped Rojas today.

Ah, but there wasn't a victory at stake, like at the Spanish champs. And we're not talking about MTFs either (or hill-top finishes), but about breakaways in the mountains.

 

[El Pistolero]

Ah, but there wasn't a victory at stake, like at the Spanish champs. And we're not talking about MTFs either (or hill-top finishes), but about breakaways in the mountains.

There's no magic force stopping you from getting dropped in a breakaway if your companion is a better climber.

If Rojas goes in a breakaway Gilbert will be right in his wheel.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Ah, but there wasn't a victory at stake, like at the Spanish champs. And we're not talking about MTFs either (or hill-top finishes), but about breakaways in the mountains.

Both Gilbert and Contador dropped Rojas today. A victory was still at stake at the time Rojas was dropped unless Rojas used his magic 8 ball to see if Costa would win by 12 seconds and decided that was enough for him not to bother anymore, forfaiting the points for second place for the green jersey at the same time as well.

Does not compute.

 

[Fus087]

Gilbert will be in every break that Rojas is in, and vice versa. But in several mountain stages the intermediate sprint is after the mountains, and I consider Gilbert a better climber than Rojas.
Today Gilbert will build on his advantage, this 7-8% finish is tailor-made for him.
If he's going for it (and he is), Gilbert could drop Rojas (and every other contender who's still there) on the final climb into Gap, thus getting some more points there (provided he can do what he couldn't in Geelong and Flanders, stay away on the final 10 km). Maybe even bridge to the break and get a lot more points than Rojas.

Cavendish has said that he's given up on green. That may be a bluff, but I think he's realised that because he can't compete with Gilbert & Rojas in the mountain stages, winning all the remaining sprints won't be enough as Rojas will be in the top 5-10 at least, and Gilbert will also be up there (even if he has to work for Greipel).

 

[Mambo95]

Cavendish has said that he's given up on green. That may be a bluff, but I think he's realised that because he can't compete with Gilbert & Rojas in the mountain stages, winning all the remaining sprints won't be enough as Rojas will be in the top 5-10 at least, and Gilbert will also be up there (even if he has to work for Greipel).

If Cav wins all four remaining sprinters stages and Rojas comes 5th in all four, then that's 180 pts v 88 pts. That would mean Rojas has to find 70-80 points advantage from Cav in the other stages and intermediates. It would be a tall order.

 

[TeoSheva]

Gilbert is going for it....

 

[Pantani_lives]

Gilbert is doing well. I like it when an allround rider tries to win green, rather than a pure sprinter. I liked Sean Kelly.

 

[Andre.J]

The race for green just became more difficult for Gilbert. I don't know if tomorrow he loses his jersey. I hope not.

 

[El Pistolero]

The race for green just became more difficult for Gilbert. I don't know if tomorrow he loses his jersey. I hope not.

He lost the jersey and should stop defending it. It's what happens when half of the stages this Tour are flat. There's still 3 flat stages to go...

 

[Ragerod]

He lost the jersey and should stop defending it. It's what happens when half of the stages this Tour are flat. There's still 3 flat stages to go...

No. Gilbert should continue fighting for it. I still think Cavendish will struggle to finish within the time limit on stage 19.

 

[Jamsque]

How do the points work for the remaining stage? Do intermediate mountain stages with flat finishes still offer 45 points to the winner?

 

[Ragerod]

How do the points work for the remaining stage? Do intermediate mountain stages with flat finishes still offer 45 points to the winner?

There are less. I think winning intermediate mountain stages are worth 30 points.

 

[dabaideschbi]

i think gilbert should defend himself in the next stage and than i think he should stay with the "gruppetto" the day after so than he can try to go on a breakaway in the Pau's stage

 

[roundabout]

How do the points work for the remaining stage? Do intermediate mountain stages with flat finishes still offer 45 points to the winner?

The stage to Gap offers 30 for the winner, stages over the Aubisque and to Pinerolo offer 20.

These are the ones that Gilbert is likely to score on.