Green Jersey: Place you bets

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He lost the jersey and should stop defending it. It's what happens when half of the stages this Tour are flat. There's still 3 flat stages to go...

wtf lol

3 flat stages... in which Gilbert will take 0 points? Even if Cav wins all three, Gilbert can still limit his losses. Plus there are other stages where Gilbert can take points that Cavendish can't. Not to mention the fact that cavendish could just as well crash out, get another disqualification or not survive the mountains. He'll have to fight for it, but clearly, this is no lost cause (yet).

 

[palmerq]

I bet 8 pounds on cavendish to win green after sundays stage, his odds were 4.25, I think that is not bad. I still think cavendish will win it gilbert is going to need a really big lead going into the final stage, there is a good chance cavedish could get 60/65 points from that or at least a lot and gilbert will be no match in the sprint in paris.

 

[PedalCastro]

Cavendish..

But I voted Gilbert cause there's a chance and I can always hope!

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Cavendish now home & hosed.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

There are less. I think winning intermediate mountain stages are worth 30 points.

Only the gap stage is worth 30. The 3 Cav stages are worth 45. Everything else is worth 20. This is over.

 

[Andre.J]

In your opinion how many total points (more or less) would Gilbert have to amass to win the green?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I see this thread has sunk without trace - I take it everyone has now come to terms with Cav's win and stopped talking nonsense about Gilbert - I almost hope he wins tomorrow for all the good 20 points will do him now.

 

[Tyler'sTwin]

I see this thread has sunk without trace - I take it everyone has now come to terms with Cav's win and stopped talking nonsense about Gilbert - I almost hope he wins tomorrow for all the good 20 points will do him now.

Don't forget the IM sprints. Gilbert could realistically pick up 60 points in the next couple of stages, with plenty more stages offering IM sprints following a climb, plus another stage he might win. Phil could win the green if he really goes for it.

 

[kurtinsc]

Don't forget the IM sprints. Gilbert could realistically pick up 60 points in the next couple of stages, with plenty more stages offering IM sprints following a climb, plus another stage he might win. Phil could win the green if he really goes for it.

The only stages Cav possibly won't be at the intermediate sprint with the main group are stage 14 (if the pace is too hectic early on), 17 (again, only if the pace is too high early on), and 19.

Really, my bet is 19 is the only one he won't be there for. I don't think those help Gilbert at all.

 

[TeoSheva]

I'm confident in Gilbert: Cav can really arrive over the time limit in stage 14 and 19!

 

[El Pistolero]

I'm confident in Gilbert: Cav can really arrive over the time limit in stage 14 and 19!

No he can't. Cav will just cheat and hang on the cars.

 

[kurtinsc]

I'm confident in Gilbert: Cav can really arrive over the time limit in stage 14 and 19!

No, he can't. Not really.

If he's made it to Paris the past couple of years, I don't think he's suddenly going to fail to make it this year barring a crash.

The only real possibility of this is OPL riding hard on the front early on with the goal of knocking out Cav. But by doing that, they'd likely cause so many to miss the limit that the race organizers would let them all continue anyway.

 

[Fus087]

But if a group of riders outside the time limit isn't eliminated from the race, they get a points reduction equalling the minutes they're behind the time limit.

 

[kurtinsc]

But if a group of riders outside the time limit isn't eliminated from the race, they get a points reduction equalling the minutes they're behind the time limit.

Not sure it would matter.

Even if OPL pushes the pace on those stages to an insane degree, Cav will have enough riders pacing him that I doubt he'd miss the limit at all. Even if they did, it would probably be more in line with 10-15 minutes each day tops over the limit.

20-30 points would likely not be enough to get Gilbert in green. Cav would make that up in 2-3 intermediate sprints.


The intermediate sprints have made the green a pure spriner competition. Few of them are after a climb big enough to drop sprinters, and few points contenders are in the breaks so far (and certainly wouldn't be allowed in by the green jersey team at this point in the race). You're giving Cav 7-12 points on stages that are NOT sprint stages. Virtually EVERY day. And you're giving him another 7-12 on sprint stages where he already gets a big boost in points if he wins the stage compared to prior years.

In 2009, Cav had won 4 stages by stage 12. He had a 10 point lead in the green with 200 points to 190 for Thor.

This year, he's won 3 stages and has a 26 point lead over Rojas with 260. Barring sprint stage relegation or having to leave the race, Cav doesn't look likely to not win Green. The intermediates help him a lot.

 

[Swabian Lass]

I don't see Cavendish getting dropped, the HTC train will drag him over the mountains. I think that he's the most likely to win Green, but you never know.

 

[lilyprotector]

cav all the way!

 

[tdfChamp]

All that and also being relagated on a stage as well! Cav is pretty much nailled on for the Green now if he stays upright and hopefully another win on the Champs elysee....