Harrogate to host 2019 Worlds

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To put Luisle or Cortina in the late move, or to wait last lap and go with Valverde. It's a good team.
I agree that’s what they will do, but it seems to me that the chances of winning like that are not great even though the quality of rider is high. It doesn’t seem likely that the climbs are hard enough to produce a late selection of climbers, ie a group where Valverde is the fastest. Sagan, Alaphilipe, MVDP, Trentin, Matthews etc have to be gone. And while Cortina and LLS are good attacking options, they aren’t in the top 20 favourites.
 
**** *Alaphilippe, Gilbert
****Sagan, Van der Poel
***Evenepoel, Matthews, Trentin
**Stybar, Asgreen, Van Avermaet, Fuglsang
*Roglic, Pogacar, Valverde, Politt, Bettiol, Jungels

EDIT: When I type 5 stars it's automatically changed into one star, so I had to put in a space.
It's interesting that a lot of people seem to think the circuit is going to be selective, or at least seem to from their picks. There's a max height gain of about 70m on Cornwall Road, the Otley Road climb basically isn't a climb I would think and the ramp up Parliament Street doesn't look anywhere near enough to favour guys like Alaphilippe and Gilbert. Might be hard for local cat4 riders but the pros will hit it at 50+kph and it'll be done before they notice.

Hardest bit if going to be dealing with the narrow roads and tight turns, that oxbow section via Swan Road and Crescent Road looks perfect for a nasty crash if the bunch hasn't thinned much. Does anyone know if they're removing the traffic islands at the Junction of Crescent Road and the A61 (Parliament Street)? There's two there which could easily cause some problems.

I think even if it's raced hard it's going to be one for riders like Sagan, VDP, Matthews, Trentin, Van Avermaet etc. If it's fairly neutral I wouldn't at all be surprised if a couple of sprinters made it to the line in the front bunch.
 
It's interesting that a lot of people seem to think the circuit is going to be selective, or at least seem to from their picks. There's a max height gain of about 70m on Cornwall Road, the Otley Road climb basically isn't a climb I would think and the ramp up Parliament Street doesn't look anywhere near enough to favour guys like Alaphilippe and Gilbert. Might be hard for local cat4 riders but the pros will hit it at 50+kph and it'll be done before they notice.

Hardest bit if going to be dealing with the narrow roads and tight turns, that oxbow section via Swan Road and Crescent Road looks perfect for a nasty crash if the bunch hasn't thinned much. Does anyone know if they're removing the traffic islands at the Junction of Crescent Road and the A61 (Parliament Street)? There's two there which could easily cause some problems.

I think even if it's raced hard it's going to be one for riders like Sagan, VDP, Matthews, Trentin, Van Avermaet etc. If it's fairly neutral I wouldn't at all be surprised if a couple of sprinters made it to the line in the front bunch.
I think there are 2 factors at play:

First, there are quite a few quality teams, that prefer to not ferry sprinters like Sagan, Ackermann, Trentin, Matthews & Kristoff all the way to the finish line in a big group.
Teams like France, Belgium, Spain, Slovenia and Denmark, will all be interested in making the race as hard as possible, to create early selection.

Secondly, from what I have read various riders say about the route, it's not that the hills are long and hard, it's that they mostly start at a tight corner, which means you begin from a virtual stand still - and they just keep coming and coming and coming.
 
I think there are 2 factors at play:

First, there are quite a few quality teams, that prefer to not ferry sprinters like Sagan, Ackermann, Trentin, Matthews & Kristoff all the way to the finish line in a big group.
Teams like France, Belgium, Spain, Slovenia and Denmark, will all be interested in making the race as hard as possible, to create early selection.

Secondly, from what I have read various riders say about the route, it's not that the hills are long and hard, it's that they mostly start at a tight corner, which means you begin from a virtual stand still - and they just keep coming and coming and coming.
Guys like Bennett and Ackermann will need dragged there, but an in form Matthews, Sagan, Kristoff, VDP type rider that can hold their own in (and even win) Fleche, Amstel, Flanders etc. I can see sticking with a group no problem. If that happens then it might make the race easier and some of the more able sprinters could find themselves back in contention.

The course provides and interesting canvas, but I'm not convinced it's selective enough for what many hope.
 
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Guys like Bennett and Ackermann will need dragged there, but an in form Matthews, Sagan, Kristoff, VDP type rider that can hold their own in (and even win) Fleche, Amstel, Flanders etc. I can see sticking with a group no problem. If that happens then it might make the race easier and some of the more able sprinters could find themselves back in contention.

The course provides and interesting canvas, but I'm not convinced it's selective enough for what many hope.
Yes, they can make it there on their own, but the object is to get them isolated in the last 20-30 k, so that they have to spend themselves closing gaps, when other teams start to attack.

The belgians and danes don't mind sprinters surviving far into the race, as long as they have numbers on them in the last part of the race, and can thus force them to spend themselves chasing down attacks.

It will not be easy, but it is the only conceivable tactic, if you do not have a guy who can win on the line.
 
Making the fast guys chase means other people being willing to let the medals slip out of their hands. We'll see how it plays out, I guess I just don't have as much hope as many here do.

If the weather is bad it'll be a very different ball game.
 
Making the fast guys chase means other people being willing to let the medals slip out of their hands. We'll see how it plays out, I guess I just don't have as much hope as many here do.

If the weather is bad it'll be a very different ball game.
Well, we kinda have to assume these national teams are actually able to ride like teams, otherwise everything is up in the air ;)

As for weather, I hope for wet, cold and windy, for purely nationalistic reasons :p
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Sep 18, 2019
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Britsh Team just been announced:

ROAD
Owain Doull
Ben Swift
Ian Stannard
Geraint Thomas
Adam Yates
TGH

TT
Dowsett
Thomas

If all those riders were at their best I'd say it would be quite a strong team - there's a fair few wins, podiums and top 10's in classics and semi-classics there... However gotta say none of them seem like they're in their best form. I assume Swift will be leader but realistically I'd say the best they can hope for is top 5
 
It's interesting that a lot of people seem to think the circuit is going to be selective, or at least seem to from their picks. There's a max height gain of about 70m on Cornwall Road, the Otley Road climb basically isn't a climb I would think and the ramp up Parliament Street doesn't look anywhere near enough to favour guys like Alaphilippe and Gilbert. Might be hard for local cat4 riders but the pros will hit it at 50+kph and it'll be done before they notice.

Hardest bit if going to be dealing with the narrow roads and tight turns, that oxbow section via Swan Road and Crescent Road looks perfect for a nasty crash if the bunch hasn't thinned much. Does anyone know if they're removing the traffic islands at the Junction of Crescent Road and the A61 (Parliament Street)? There's two there which could easily cause some problems.

I think even if it's raced hard it's going to be one for riders like Sagan, VDP, Matthews, Trentin, Van Avermaet etc. If it's fairly neutral I wouldn't at all be surprised if a couple of sprinters made it to the line in the front bunch.
Aye, I think people are think about accumulative ascents, not just the circuit. The people like GVA, Sagan etc will try and put repetitive digs in on Pot Bank, after several hours of racing on heavy Yorkshire roads then that climb (which they have resurfaced part of it) will take it's toll.
 
Sep 18, 2019
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Not really sure why Yates or TGH are there to be honest.
Yates was looking alright at the Canadian races to be fair, they could be useful to send up the road on the big climbs before the riders hit the circuit. They wouldn't have been my first choice though. It's strange that, apart from Swift, none of the Elite Men have seemed to target this at all. Riders like Luke Rowe and Chris Lawless should have been thinking about this course all year. Odd behaviour for a home nation's riders
 
Sep 26, 2015
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6
2,595
**** *Alaphilippe, Gilbert
****Sagan, Van der Poel
***Evenepoel, Matthews, Trentin
**Stybar, Asgreen, Van Avermaet, Fuglsang, Lutsenko
*Roglic, Pogacar, Valverde, Politt, Bettiol, Jungels

EDIT: When I type 5 stars it's automatically changed into one star, so I had to put in a space.
Here's mine:

**** *Van der Poel, Sagan
****Alaphilippe, Van Avermaet
***Gilbert, Matthews
**Stybar, Trentin, Bennett, Valgren Andersen, Kristoff, Valverde, Fuglsang
*Politt, Bettiol, Jungels, Asgreen, Garcia Cortina, Terpstra, Lampaert, Evenepoel, Naesen, Wellens, Cosnefroy, Clarke, Mohoric, Pedersen, Hirschi, Costa, Woods, Impey, Yates, Colbrelli

With their form and final kick, i think Van der Poel and Sagan are the clear favorites. Alaphilippe isn't quite there yet form wise (good but not great).
 
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Aye, I think people are think about accumulative ascents, not just the circuit. The people like GVA, Sagan etc will try and put repetitive digs in on Pot Bank, after several hours of racing on heavy Yorkshire roads then that climb (which they have resurfaced part of it) will take it's toll.
Yeah, I can see that, I just don't think it's enough to bring guys like Gil/Ala/Valv about the likes of Matthews/VPD/Sagan. Maybe if they make the race really, really hard...
 
Reactions: jaylew
If the weather is bad it'll be a very different ball game.
The weather needs to be bad.
Once, a long time ago, they organized the worlds in Europe's rainiest city, in one of their rainiest months. Come worlds, >20 °C and sunny all day, every day. The mens race was one extended bore-fest, and at the most exciting moment, the final 5 kms, the coverage fails. We just got to see Sagan beating Kristoff.

Anything but that, please.
 
How I see it:

5 Stars - Van Der Poel, Sagan, Belgium (whole team has a chance except De Clerq TBH)
4 Stars - Alaphillipe, Matthews, Trentin
3 Stars - Stybar, Jungels, Kristoff, Bennett
2 Stars - Valverde, Mohoric, Pollitt
1 Star - Swift, Ackermann, Clarke, Stannard (if rainy) LLS, Valgren, Colbrelli, Henao

I'm probably missing someone...
 
No way is Bennett a 3-star favourite. He’s never made it to the final selection in a long race like this (MSR, the Worlds in Doha for 2examples) and even if he gets to the final lap in the company of Sagan, Alaf, vdP, he’ll be an obvious target to get rid of with an attack on one of the climbs.
 

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