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Dunno the odds, but I agree it's much better for him than Innsbruck.MartinGT said:
Seriously he was mighty impressive in Bergen and this one is a little harder I think.
It might be a problem if France decides to ride for Demare though.
Attackers vs sprinters is gonna be a big conundrum for many teams, although I think that there's too much firepower in countries without sprinters suitable to this route for this to end up in a sprint.
Then again I thought exactly the same about Bergen but then Belgium, Poland and those sort of teams did absolutely nothing until the penultimate lap or soRed Rick said:
Seems like that route has much more straight roads, so it made chasing easier. Now you need to be in the first positions to not waste energy, I expect the race to be much more nervous.Gigs_98 said:
That being said, I don't think this is a route where a dude like Alaphilippe could also wait until the last lap.
I think it's the Dutch who need to make the race more than any other, unless they go all in on MvdP
Everyone seems to think Sagan is the favorite for this one, but I disagree.
On a route like that, the last 30 K are gonna be non-stop attacks, from a select group of 20-30 of the strongest.... kinda like we often see at Amstel.
However, as opposed to the classics, at worlds Sagan does not have the benefit of a strong team around him, because all the other slovak riders suck, and no opponents want to bring him to the line, which means he'll have to close down all the attacks himself, with zero help.
Add to that, that a bunch of nations can field 5 potential winners, and a very competent supporting cast, so many of them will have at least 2 riders still in the mix, at the end of the race:
Belgium, Holland, Denmark, GB, Australia, Spain and Italy, can all put in very strong teams indeed for that course, and Germany, France and Poland are not far behind.
I think we will see a very interesting race indeed, with many conflicting agendas.
On a route like that, the last 30 K are gonna be non-stop attacks, from a select group of 20-30 of the strongest.... kinda like we often see at Amstel.
However, as opposed to the classics, at worlds Sagan does not have the benefit of a strong team around him, because all the other slovak riders suck, and no opponents want to bring him to the line, which means he'll have to close down all the attacks himself, with zero help.
Add to that, that a bunch of nations can field 5 potential winners, and a very competent supporting cast, so many of them will have at least 2 riders still in the mix, at the end of the race:
Belgium, Holland, Denmark, GB, Australia, Spain and Italy, can all put in very strong teams indeed for that course, and Germany, France and Poland are not far behind.
I think we will see a very interesting race indeed, with many conflicting agendas.
I think there are a variety of riders who could do well at this Worlds. I agree Sagan could have issues due to having a weak team around him. Other countries will have strong teams with multiple options or at least in the case of Spain a strong team for Valverde again. The Belgium, Dutch, and Danish teams should have several options. France will likely have option A and B with Demare and Alaphilippe. Italy likely has 2 or 3 options.
Red Rick said:
This course could actually suit MVDP really, really well. He will love the short, punchy climbs and those sharp accelerations. Sure the distance is still a bit of an unknown in such a hard race but we will know more after the classics.
Sagan will depend on other strong teams watching/catching each other's attacks ... and if they blink, he can still will. His chances are better if there are several equally - strong teams, if there is one team much stronger than others, his chances are low(er). But he is Sagan, so you never know...
MvdP already spoke to the Dutch national coach about possible participation in the road champs. That would give the Netherlands some more options except balls out attack with people like Terpstra / Van Baarle / etc
Stage 2 of this years TDY will give people a preview of the Worlds final lap, I don't expect them to be racing it anyways.
Re:
On that part, I think we all agree.
The stuff that guy can do on a bike i amazing
DonEsteban said:
On that part, I think we all agree.
The stuff that guy can do on a bike i amazing
Re:
Many of the GT riders will also be interested in that route.
I could see Dumoulin, Mollema, Oomen, Poels, Kelderman etc. all think they could do well.
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Many of the GT riders will also be interested in that route.
I could see Dumoulin, Mollema, Oomen, Poels, Kelderman etc. all think they could do well.
Re: Re:
Of those I only see Dumoulin featuring because he's a huge rouleur as well.Broccolidwarf said:
Re: Re:
Most of them have a fair to good TT, and add to that, that because of the race distance at worlds, GT riders normally do well, because they are built for stamina and maintaining strength for the finale, like the best classics riders.
Most of those guys are hybrids anyway, like Thomas, Fuglsang, Jungels, Wellens, etc. - Not quite climbers, not quite TT specialists, somewhere in-between, good enough for all 5 monuments (if they wanted to) and GTs.
Now, for a team like Belgium, they could enter an entire team of gold medal favorites, without even selecting Wellens, but most other countries do not have that luxury.
I was just making the point, that GT riders are a viable option, as long as they are not pure climbers, if your team is not stacked without them.
Red Rick said:
Most of them have a fair to good TT, and add to that, that because of the race distance at worlds, GT riders normally do well, because they are built for stamina and maintaining strength for the finale, like the best classics riders.
Most of those guys are hybrids anyway, like Thomas, Fuglsang, Jungels, Wellens, etc. - Not quite climbers, not quite TT specialists, somewhere in-between, good enough for all 5 monuments (if they wanted to) and GTs.
Now, for a team like Belgium, they could enter an entire team of gold medal favorites, without even selecting Wellens, but most other countries do not have that luxury.
I was just making the point, that GT riders are a viable option, as long as they are not pure climbers, if your team is not stacked without them.
I can see a few of the Brit riders fancying this ... Yates bros, Thomas etc. I also think that Slovenia could put a pretty decent team into this, if they so wished.
Re:
This wouldn't be hard enough for Thomas or the Yates bros. Swift or Rowe would probably be GBs best bet, or maybe Stannard if the weather is bad.armchairclimber said:
Australia could have leadership issues if Ewan continues to improve his ability in long races. Matthews would be the obvious leader, but Ewan's improvement could change things.
Re: Re:
Simon Yates can be pretty punchy, and doesn't mind going solo ... this is the terrain they've ridden all their lives. I think they'll be there or thereabouts. If there is some significant selection over the bigger climbs (like Buttertubs) they'll be there. And trust me, this is a hard course...especially if Pennine weather has a say.
42x16ss said:
Simon Yates can be pretty punchy, and doesn't mind going solo ... this is the terrain they've ridden all their lives. I think they'll be there or thereabouts. If there is some significant selection over the bigger climbs (like Buttertubs) they'll be there. And trust me, this is a hard course...especially if Pennine weather has a say.
Ben Swift has had his best results generally in Milan San Remo and the reduced bunch finish stages in Volta Catalunya so tough long courses without an uphill finish which is similar characteristics to the Harrogate worlds course.
In addition to this he is from Yorkshire so should have good knowledge of the course and terrain. Not a favourite but a worthy dark horse each way bet for a top 5 finish.
In addition to this he is from Yorkshire so should have good knowledge of the course and terrain. Not a favourite but a worthy dark horse each way bet for a top 5 finish.
Belgium's team could be brutal with Gilbert, Van Avermaet, Benoot, Wellens, Naesen, Lampaert, Van Aert and Stuyven.
Re:
Yeah that's crazy good but I would expect them to include a guy like Tim Declerq as a workhorse to control the first 150km of the race instead of one of the above even though all the names you listed are credible candidates for the win.Laplaz said:
Re: Re:
Totally forgot about that. Maybe if he can resume full training in June or early July and ride the Vurlta then he might benefit from being fresher than most riders. It's a lot to ask.
MartinGT said:
Totally forgot about that. Maybe if he can resume full training in June or early July and ride the Vurlta then he might benefit from being fresher than most riders. It's a lot to ask.
There are so many possible winners on that course. It's mouth watering! To state the obvious, it's likely to be someone that has:
- An above avg Sprint
- Proven stamina/results on hard hilly courses
Like some have said, the Belgium's could field an entire team of possible winners.
- An above avg Sprint
- Proven stamina/results on hard hilly courses
Like some have said, the Belgium's could field an entire team of possible winners.
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