Teams & Riders He's coming home!!!! Alejandro Valverde comeback thread.

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Im really starting to believe Valverde actually has a chance of winning Tour de France when looking at the route. Am I crazy?

As much as i like you, yes: you're out of your mind

Bala was impressive, but as already said, he still won a 200 meter sprint at La Molina and only a 4 km fight on a single mountain stage. That's not comparable to a Tour at all.

Froome is a class above him when it comes to racing three weeks at a consistent level. He has a chance to podium it, but not a single rider in history has won the Tour at 37 years of age. Especially not a rider who's not an absolutely born GT-rider.

Don't expect miracles

No, you are out of your mind!

To be fair my reasoning is the following: If Froome crashes or gets sick, then he might have a chance considering Quintana is riding Il Giro and Contador is getting older and I would be on Valverde against Bardet, Chaves and Porte in top shape any day of the week as it stands right now.

I know, long shot, but you never know.....

I would bet on Valverde against these riders in 1 week races, but no way in a gt (except for Bardet...that's hit or miss). I would even consider Chaves as more of a favorite to podium over Valverde. That's not even mentioning AC and Porte. I don't care if AC is getting older. No way he loses to him....especially if Froome isn't there.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Im really starting to believe Valverde actually has a chance of winning Tour de France when looking at the route. Am I crazy?

As much as i like you, yes: you're out of your mind

Bala was impressive, but as already said, he still won a 200 meter sprint at La Molina and only a 4 km fight on a single mountain stage. That's not comparable to a Tour at all.

Froome is a class above him when it comes to racing three weeks at a consistent level. He has a chance to podium it, but not a single rider in history has won the Tour at 37 years of age. Especially not a rider who's not an absolutely born GT-rider.

Don't expect miracles

No, you are out of your mind!

To be fair my reasoning is the following: If Froome crashes or gets sick, then he might have a chance considering Quintana is riding Il Giro and Contador is getting older and I would be on Valverde against Bardet, Chaves and Porte in top shape any day of the week as it stands right now.

I know, long shot, but you never know.....

Porte just lost PN because of extreme racing conditions. Uphill he was really good, maybe even better then Henao and Contador. I still think he can drop Bala in the high mountains.

Don't forget Porte and Chaves didn't compete in Catalunya.

 

[KyoGrey]

In fact, he shouldn't consider the GC in the Tour de France. Valverde will probably achieve a top-10 just by pure intertia because he is so good, but the GT that he should target is La Vuelta.

Not going to happen, but I'm praying for him having a disastrous day in the first week of the Tour, lose 10 minutes and spend the rest of the race alternating teamwork for Quintana, breakhunting and softpedalling so that he has a minimum freshness for the later part of the season.

Back to the present, he is in a unique position to goldbath his palmarés this April.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Im really starting to believe Valverde actually has a chance of winning Tour de France when looking at the route. Am I crazy?

As much as i like you, yes: you're out of your mind

Bala was impressive, but as already said, he still won a 200 meter sprint at La Molina and only a 4 km fight on a single mountain stage. That's not comparable to a Tour at all.

Froome is a class above him when it comes to racing three weeks at a consistent level. He has a chance to podium it, but not a single rider in history has won the Tour at 37 years of age. Especially not a rider who's not an absolutely born GT-rider.

Don't expect miracles

No, you are out of your mind!

To be fair my reasoning is the following: If Froome crashes or gets sick, then he might have a chance considering Quintana is riding Il Giro and Contador is getting older and I would be on Valverde against Bardet, Chaves and Porte in top shape any day of the week as it stands right now.

I know, long shot, but you never know.....

I would bet on Valverde against these riders in 1 week races, but no way in a gt (except for Bardet...that's hit or miss). I would even consider Chaves as more of a favorite to podium over Valverde. That's not even mentioning AC and Porte. I don't care if AC is getting older. No way he loses to him....especially if Froome isn't there.

With the exception of Contador of course, I would bet on Bala to beat those three any day of the week. He has more GT's, podiums and Top 10's than those 3 combine x3!!!

But, as TDF concerns, I think he'll be a backup option, if something goes wrong with Quintana. If Nairo is ok, he'll be a domestique de luxe. That's why I think he'll try to reach top form as late as possible, in the 3rd week, and later maintain that form into Vuelta, which is going to be his main target this year, along with the WC RR

Only something extraordinary, which will put Froome and Quintana out of the picture, could force him to go all out for the GC, and if that happens I don't see anybody except Contador who could match him

 

[Velolover2]

I think Bala will podium if Quintana is tired after the Giro.

I could see Quintana winning a couple of stages in the third week without going for the overall.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Im really starting to believe Valverde actually has a chance of winning Tour de France when looking at the route. Am I crazy?

As much as i like you, yes: you're out of your mind

Bala was impressive, but as already said, he still won a 200 meter sprint at La Molina and only a 4 km fight on a single mountain stage. That's not comparable to a Tour at all.

Froome is a class above him when it comes to racing three weeks at a consistent level. He has a chance to podium it, but not a single rider in history has won the Tour at 37 years of age. Especially not a rider who's not an absolutely born GT-rider.

Don't expect miracles

No, you are out of your mind!

To be fair my reasoning is the following: If Froome crashes or gets sick, then he might have a chance considering Quintana is riding Il Giro and Contador is getting older and I would be on Valverde against Bardet, Chaves and Porte in top shape any day of the week as it stands right now.

I know, long shot, but you never know.....

I would bet on Valverde against these riders in 1 week races, but no way in a gt (except for Bardet...that's hit or miss). I would even consider Chaves as more of a favorite to podium over Valverde. That's not even mentioning AC and Porte. I don't care if AC is getting older. No way he loses to him....especially if Froome isn't there.

With the exception of Contador of course, I would bet on Bala to beat those three any day of the week. He has more GT's, podiums and Top 10's than those 3 combine x3!!!

But, as TDF concerns, I think he'll be a backup option, if something goes wrong with Quintana. If Nairo is ok, he'll be a domestique de luxe. That's why I think he'll try to reach top form as late as possible, in the 3rd week, and later maintain that form into Vuelta, which is going to be his main target this year, along with the WC RR

Only something extraordinary, which will put Froome and Quintana out of the picture, could force him to go all out for the GC, and if that happens I don't see anybody except Contador who could match him

Of course he does. He's a great rider who's been great for a long time. But, his palmares have nothing to with how he's gonna perform this July against riders that potentially can be getting better while he might start declining soon.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Jspear, you are being stupid now.

Declining? Valverde has just started to enter his prime, Mont Caro was nothing. 7,00 w/kg on Planche des Belles Filles.

 

[portugal11]

Jspear, you are being stupid now.

Declining? Valverde has just started to enter his prime, Mont Caro was nothing. 7,00 w/kg on Planche des Belles Filles.

Verbier stuff

 

[tobydawq]

http://movistarteam.com/carreras/vuelta-al-pais-vasco-2017

Movistar confirm that Don Alejandro will participate in Itzulia. Great news.

 

[Velolover2]

Good news about the Itzulia.

Wonder if he can win a mass sprint there? Other than Matthews and Swift, there aren't many riders who can beat him on the startlist. Are stage 3 and 4 hard enough to eliminate the Matthews-types?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yes, as hoped and expected! Hopefully he can finally manage to win this race.

 

[dlwssonic]

This is really a nuclear holocaust from Valverde. How about just winning the tour *** it.

 

[Mr.White]

I don't know how smart is this, I guess we'll see in four weeks time. I think he just can't help himself, he just loves to race. Although I must say that winning Pais Vasco for the first time would be a great achievement. But it's going to be tough, there are not much walls to eliminate good TT-ists. Only one, if I saw it good, on stage 5. He needs to go early there, but there's a danger called Contador, who is better TT-ist, especially with that length of TT. On top of that, hard racing in Pais Vasco could affect his Ardennes performance, and competition there is terrifying: Gilbert, Kwiatkowski, Alaphilippe, Martin...

 

[tobydawq]

Gilbert will definitely not be there when it starts just the day after Flanders and with his emphasis on the cobbles. But sure, the competition is good as it should be. However, the route of Catalunya didn't do him many favours either (especially after the punishment of Movistar) and he ended up crushing the opposition there.

But especially the lack of bonifications is against him. His time trial in Ruta del Sol showed that he doesn't really lack anything in that department, though, and he seems to be going even better now. It will be interesting to see how it pans out, but surely Martin will be no threat given the TT.

I think it's going to be between Bala, (B)Ala, Kwiat and Contador without knowing the full start list. Ion, Roglic and Henao could be dangerous as well. But my pick is Bala for the win and I don't think he will suffer too much from too many race days. That's not really something that usually slows him.

 

[Valv.Piti]

This route definitely favours a rider like Contador more than Valverde at this stage considering the long time trial. The harder the better overall route for Valverde, but its a pretty underwhelming route so its likely to come down to the last two stages unless something unexpected happens on stage 3. Not much room to show you are the strongest if thats indeed the case apart from Arrate. The lack of bonifcations is suboptimal as well, but we knew that going in.

He just needs to show he is the best once again on these two last stages and safe everything for that, but many of these riders could rider a better ITT than him on the day, so it will be super hard to win. Really an unpredictable race. Hoping some guys will go for a long one on either stage 3 or 5 or else we could be in for a pretty boring race.

 

[Mr.White]

He could target stage wins in couple of stages (3,4,5). As for GC, everything depends on the last TT. He also needs strong ride on Arrate, ideal would be if he can drop Contador, but I don't think it's going to be the case. Overall win is going to be very hard. If I was him, I would be content with one stage win and podium place.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I don't care too much for a podium, he has enough of those. If he wins a couple of stages then Im all good, it will be a super hard race to win overall as we all know.

Will race GP Miguel Indurain. Will probably let one of his mates win unless he wants to immulate Philippe Gilbert.

 

[Cordi333]

Re:

Will race GP Miguel Indurain. Will probably let one of his mates win unless he wants to immulate Philippe Gilbert.

I doubt that. There are enough good teams and riders in the startlist, so it's not going to be easy for Movistar to win, let alone decide who has to win.

 

[Asero831]

Re: Re:

Will race GP Miguel Indurain. Will probably let one of his mates win unless he wants to immulate Philippe Gilbert.

I doubt that. There are enough good teams and riders in the startlist, so it's not going to be easy for Movistar to win, let alone decide who has to win.

Henao vs Valverde

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Im really starting to believe Valverde actually has a chance of winning Tour de France when looking at the route. Am I crazy?

As much as i like you, yes: you're out of your mind

Bala was impressive, but as already said, he still won a 200 meter sprint at La Molina and only a 4 km fight on a single mountain stage. That's not comparable to a Tour at all.

Froome is a class above him when it comes to racing three weeks at a consistent level. He has a chance to podium it, but not a single rider in history has won the Tour at 37 years of age. Especially not a rider who's not an absolutely born GT-rider.

Don't expect miracles

No, you are out of your mind!

To be fair my reasoning is the following: If Froome crashes or gets sick, then he might have a chance considering Quintana is riding Il Giro and Contador is getting older and I would be on Valverde against Bardet, Chaves and Porte in top shape any day of the week as it stands right now.

I know, long shot, but you never know.....

Porte just lost PN because of extreme racing conditions. Uphill he was really good, maybe even better then Henao and Contador. I still think he can drop Bala in the high mountains.

Don't forget Porte and Chaves didn't compete in Catalunya.

disagree. froome will be #1 favorite but his weakness on flat stages might be exploited yet again. post-giro quintana doesn't look too overwhelming compared to fresh valverde either. contador seems to be declining in climbing. it's quite difficult to assess chaves and bardet level thus far as they don't show up anything special in one week races. notwithstanding i see the only rider looking much more superior contender than valverde, it's froome who can easily crash or screw up and catch a wind split. it massively depends on how nairo's condition will be though. for sure, valverde is 36 and he's barely able to stamp tremendous showings on regular basis. still never say never since there are clearly just a few better riders.

 

[May0maniac]

The thing is that this time the Tour de France end with 2 stages in the high mountains and Valverde should loose minutes to the top guyws on at least one of them (see the Giro).

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Gilbert will definitely not be there when it starts just the day after Flanders and with his emphasis on the cobbles. But sure, the competition is good as it should be.
...

It will be interesting to see how it pans out, but surely Martin will be no threat given the TT.

I think Mr White meant the competition in the Ardennes will be tough with Gilbert, Kwiatkowski, Alaphilippe, Martin, not in Pais Vasco

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Gilbert will definitely not be there when it starts just the day after Flanders and with his emphasis on the cobbles. But sure, the competition is good as it should be.
...

It will be interesting to see how it pans out, but surely Martin will be no threat given the TT.

I think Mr White meant the competition in the Ardennes will be tough with Gilbert, Kwiatkowski, Alaphilippe, Martin, not in Pais Vasco

D'oh. I apparently have to work on my interpretation skills... Impressive that I couldn't deduce that from the riders mentioned.

Then I don't disagree anymore.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Gilbert will definitely not be there when it starts just the day after Flanders and with his emphasis on the cobbles. But sure, the competition is good as it should be.
...

It will be interesting to see how it pans out, but surely Martin will be no threat given the TT.

I think Mr White meant the competition in the Ardennes will be tough with Gilbert, Kwiatkowski, Alaphilippe, Martin, not in Pais Vasco

Exactly In Pais Vasco it will be another round of Contador vs Valverde, and I think vs Sky this time

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

The thing is that this time the Tour de France end with 2 stages in the high mountains and Valverde should loose minutes to the top guyws on at least one of them (see the Giro).

Thing is either of those stages stage are THAT hard. The Galibier-stage is rough, but Corvara was much harder. And he did incredibly well on those two last stages in that Giro (Risoul, Vinadio) and coulda/woulda/sholda won if Movistar breached in the bottom of Risoul (they were super close). Then it had been another ballgame...

But yes, it shouldn't be possible.