I'll need to have VETO on that one, but sure.CheckMyPecs said:I'll pick the worst pic of Lefevere I can find on Google, if I lose this bet.Valv.Piti said:Aight, that sounds reasonable![]()
I'll need to have VETO on that one, but sure.CheckMyPecs said:I'll pick the worst pic of Lefevere I can find on Google, if I lose this bet.Valv.Piti said:Aight, that sounds reasonable![]()
I am well aware of that - that's why its 7 weeks v 1 week!SeriousSam said:Thank god you didn't bet money. It's rare there's a GT in which one rider can be reasonable said to have a >50% chance to win before the start, so betting that a rider does not win at rewards resembling even odds is almost always better.
Valverde isn't even the most likely rider to win the Giro, and he's nowhere near 50%.
Bet would be close to fair if you replace Valverde with Nibali
Moviestar said:Nice gesture from Valverde to let his teammate win the race in Amorebieta. He even let Pardilla finish on the podium![]()
You can't say that based on Castilla y Leon. It's maybe the worst stage race of the season based on level.Valv.Piti said:I know its only Castilla y Leon, but its second time this year Valverde has obliterated the field. First in Andalucia, which was far more impressive, and again today against much weaker competition. He should be the favourite for F-W and L-B-L once again.
Venga Bala!![]()
Why can't I say he is the favourite? I acknowledged in my post that the level was abysmal, but that doesn't change the fact he did the same thing to the field in Andalucia and he has won F-W the two last year, L-B-L last year as well. He also do have Moreno this time, the guy making it hard for him to win in L-B-L.Arredondo said:You can't say that based on Castilla y Leon. It's maybe the worst stage race of the season based on level.Valv.Piti said:I know its only Castilla y Leon, but its second time this year Valverde has obliterated the field. First in Andalucia, which was far more impressive, and again today against much weaker competition. He should be the favourite for F-W and L-B-L once again.
Venga Bala!![]()
He will be one of the top guys. But the favourite? Let's wait till Fleche to judge![]()
You're right actually. I thought you're post was more oversimplifiedValv.Piti said:Why can't I say he is the favourite? I acknowledged in my post that the level was abysmal, but that doesn't change the fact he did the same thing to the field in Andalucia and he has won F-W the two last year, L-B-L last year as well. He also do have Moreno this time, the guy making it hard for him to win in L-B-L.Arredondo said:You can't say that based on Castilla y Leon. It's maybe the worst stage race of the season based on level.Valv.Piti said:I know its only Castilla y Leon, but its second time this year Valverde has obliterated the field. First in Andalucia, which was far more impressive, and again today against much weaker competition. He should be the favourite for F-W and L-B-L once again.
Venga Bala!![]()
He will be one of the top guys. But the favourite? Let's wait till Fleche to judge![]()
Surely, he is not several steps better than the others, that wasn't what I implied, but I think its fair to say as of right now, he is the favourite. Surely the bookmakers will agree on that one, altho I think Henao is underrated in F-W at 7,5, hence making him a super bet for that race.
EDIT:
Odds for Fleche Wallone, Valverde 3,00, Rodriguez, Martin and Henao 8,00.
Odds for Liege - Bastogne - Liege, Valverde 4.00, Martin 7,50, Gerrans 8,00, Rodriguez 13,00.
Yep, forgot him as well. Its not too shabby!Mr.White said:And he has a Grande Bananito at his side too!![]()
I think Sky with Kwiat, Henao, Poels, Froome (you never know after Tour and Huy last year) and Kennaugh have a strong team too.Valv.Piti said:Moreno underperforms atm, Ion was sick, but Visconti is going really good. Then he will also be having Gorka who won last week and Nairito in L-B-L which is the only race where team strength actually matters. On paper, assuming Moreno will do better and Ion is over is sickness, I actually think they have the strongest team apart from EQS.
You can add Aru to Astana.Arredondo said:If you look at the teams
Movistar: Bala, Nairo, Ion, Gorka and Moreno (i don't see Betancur on the starting list)
Katusha: Purito, Zaka, Machado, Taaramae
Etixx: Martin, Alaphilippe, Vakoc, Brambilla
AG2R: Bardet, Pozzo, Vuillermoz, Bakelants
Astana: Nibali, Rosa, Fuglsang, Lulu
Orica: Yates brothers, Albasini, Gerrans
Sky: Kwiat, Henao, Poels, Froome
Some really strong teams
How can you forget the legendary Imanol Erviti?Arredondo said:If you look at the teams
Movistar: Bala, Nairo, Ion, Gorka and Moreno (i don't see Betancur on the starting list)
Katusha: Purito, Zaka, Machado, Taaramae
Etixx: Martin, Alaphilippe, Vakoc, Brambilla
AG2R: Bardet, Pozzo, Vuillermoz, Bakelants
Astana: Nibali, Rosa, Fuglsang, Lulu
Orica: Yates brothers, Albasini, Gerrans
Sky: Kwiat, Henao, Poels, Froome
Some really strong teams
He's the strong favourite because he absolutely dominated both races last season, even without a particularly strong team. At his best, Valverde is untouchable at FW and can only really be outdone by other teams ganging up against him at LBL.Arredondo said:You're right actually. I thought you're post was more oversimplifiedValv.Piti said:Why can't I say he is the favourite? I acknowledged in my post that the level was abysmal, but that doesn't change the fact he did the same thing to the field in Andalucia and he has won F-W the two last year, L-B-L last year as well. He also do have Moreno this time, the guy making it hard for him to win in L-B-L.Arredondo said:You can't say that based on Castilla y Leon. It's maybe the worst stage race of the season based on level.Valv.Piti said:I know its only Castilla y Leon, but its second time this year Valverde has obliterated the field. First in Andalucia, which was far more impressive, and again today against much weaker competition. He should be the favourite for F-W and L-B-L once again.
Venga Bala!![]()
He will be one of the top guys. But the favourite? Let's wait till Fleche to judge![]()
Surely, he is not several steps better than the others, that wasn't what I implied, but I think its fair to say as of right now, he is the favourite. Surely the bookmakers will agree on that one, altho I think Henao is underrated in F-W at 7,5, hence making him a super bet for that race.
EDIT:
Odds for Fleche Wallone, Valverde 3,00, Rodriguez, Martin and Henao 8,00.
Odds for Liege - Bastogne - Liege, Valverde 4.00, Martin 7,50, Gerrans 8,00, Rodriguez 13,00.![]()
But i have read a lot of posts implying Bala is way better then all of the other favorites, and he can only lose. That's something i disagree, because if you look at this track record, he wins 20% of the classics he competes. For sure that's impressive, but everything can happen in those races, and the level is always really high. He can lose too, even in his best shape.
And we have to wait how strong Movistar really is. Moreno really underperforms atm, and Visconti is not a cycling god. Ion is a strong guy ofcourse. But there are a lot of teams, who can make the race difficult for Bala, by sending guys up the road and trying to neutralize the race in the peloton. Katusha, AG2R, Astana, Sky, Orica and Etixx can do it.
But will they do it? I doubt about that.
Missing Romandie specialist Špilak too.Arredondo said:If you look at the teams
Movistar: Bala, Nairo, Ion, Gorka and Moreno (i don't see Betancur on the starting list)
Katusha: Purito, Zaka, Machado, Taaramae
Etixx: Martin, Alaphilippe, Vakoc, Brambilla
AG2R: Bardet, Pozzo, Vuillermoz, Bakelants
Astana: Nibali, Rosa, Fuglsang, Lulu
Orica: Yates brothers, Albasini, Gerrans
Sky: Kwiat, Henao, Poels, Froome
Some really strong teams
If Purito is at his best, he can beat Bala on the Mur. He has done it in the past. And if Henao is in super shape, he can do it too.DFA123 said:He's the strong favourite because he absolutely dominated both races last season, even without a particularly strong team. At his best, Valverde is untouchable at FW and can only really be outdone by other teams ganging up against him at LBL.Arredondo said:You're right actually. I thought you're post was more oversimplifiedValv.Piti said:Why can't I say he is the favourite? I acknowledged in my post that the level was abysmal, but that doesn't change the fact he did the same thing to the field in Andalucia and he has won F-W the two last year, L-B-L last year as well. He also do have Moreno this time, the guy making it hard for him to win in L-B-L.Arredondo said:You can't say that based on Castilla y Leon. It's maybe the worst stage race of the season based on level.Valv.Piti said:I know its only Castilla y Leon, but its second time this year Valverde has obliterated the field. First in Andalucia, which was far more impressive, and again today against much weaker competition. He should be the favourite for F-W and L-B-L once again.
Venga Bala!![]()
He will be one of the top guys. But the favourite? Let's wait till Fleche to judge![]()
Surely, he is not several steps better than the others, that wasn't what I implied, but I think its fair to say as of right now, he is the favourite. Surely the bookmakers will agree on that one, altho I think Henao is underrated in F-W at 7,5, hence making him a super bet for that race.
EDIT:
Odds for Fleche Wallone, Valverde 3,00, Rodriguez, Martin and Henao 8,00.
Odds for Liege - Bastogne - Liege, Valverde 4.00, Martin 7,50, Gerrans 8,00, Rodriguez 13,00.![]()
But i have read a lot of posts implying Bala is way better then all of the other favorites, and he can only lose. That's something i disagree, because if you look at this track record, he wins 20% of the classics he competes. For sure that's impressive, but everything can happen in those races, and the level is always really high. He can lose too, even in his best shape.
And we have to wait how strong Movistar really is. Moreno really underperforms atm, and Visconti is not a cycling god. Ion is a strong guy ofcourse. But there are a lot of teams, who can make the race difficult for Bala, by sending guys up the road and trying to neutralize the race in the peloton. Katusha, AG2R, Astana, Sky, Orica and Etixx can do it.
But will they do it? I doubt about that.
The question is how close to his best he is. I would hope he's going all out for the Giro, which may mean he's slightly undercooked for the Ardennes; in that case, he's probably only got a fighter's chance at FW and LBL, like about 10 other riders.
Amstel Fold crashes?Valv.Piti said:I dont think Valverde will be at 100%, so I definitely follow you. Martin is an outsider, but I can only see those 3 potentially winning. One of my favourite one day races!
Also, how has Purito only won this race 1 time? He has consistently been the best at this type of climb for 4-5 years.