Teams & Riders He's coming home!!!! Alejandro Valverde comeback thread.

[Valv.Piti]

Aight, that sounds reasonable

I'll pick the worst pic of Lefevere I can find on Google, if I lose this bet.

I'll need to have VETO on that one, but sure.

 

[SeriousSam]

Thank god you didn't bet money. It's rare there's a GT in which one rider can be reasonable said to have a >50% chance to win before the start, so betting that a rider does not win at rewards resembling even odds is almost always better.

Valverde isn't even the most likely rider to win the Giro, and he's nowhere near 50%.

Bet would be close to fair if you replace Valverde with Nibali

 

[Valv.Piti]

Thank god you didn't bet money. It's rare there's a GT in which one rider can be reasonable said to have a >50% chance to win before the start, so betting that a rider does not win at rewards resembling even odds is almost always better.

Valverde isn't even the most likely rider to win the Giro, and he's nowhere near 50%.

Bet would be close to fair if you replace Valverde with Nibali

I am well aware of that - that's why its 7 weeks v 1 week! Which more or less is what his odds are at.

 

[Moviestar]

Nice gesture from Valverde to let his teammate win the race in Amorebieta. He even let Pardilla finish on the podium

 

[mariposa]

Re:

Nice gesture from Valverde to let his teammate win the race in Amorebieta. He even let Pardilla finish on the podium

nice touch for Pardilla in particular after the tough year he has had following his crash. Valverde does this a lot which is one of the reasons I like him.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I know its only Castilla y Leon, but its second time this year Valverde has obliterated the field. First in Andalucia, which was far more impressive, and again today against much weaker competition. He should be the favourite for F-W and L-B-L once again.

Venga Bala!

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

I know its only Castilla y Leon, but its second time this year Valverde has obliterated the field. First in Andalucia, which was far more impressive, and again today against much weaker competition. He should be the favourite for F-W and L-B-L once again.

Venga Bala!

You can't say that based on Castilla y Leon. It's maybe the worst stage race of the season based on level.

He will be one of the top guys. But the favourite? Let's wait till Fleche to judge

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I know its only Castilla y Leon, but its second time this year Valverde has obliterated the field. First in Andalucia, which was far more impressive, and again today against much weaker competition. He should be the favourite for F-W and L-B-L once again.

Venga Bala!

You can't say that based on Castilla y Leon. It's maybe the worst stage race of the season based on level.

He will be one of the top guys. But the favourite? Let's wait till Fleche to judge

Why can't I say he is the favourite? I acknowledged in my post that the level was abysmal, but that doesn't change the fact he did the same thing to the field in Andalucia and he has won F-W the two last year, L-B-L last year as well. He also do have Moreno this time, the guy making it hard for him to win in L-B-L.

Surely, he is not several steps better than the others, that wasn't what I implied, but I think its fair to say as of right now, he is the favourite. Surely the bookmakers will agree on that one, altho I think Henao is underrated in F-W at 7,5, hence making him a super bet for that race.

EDIT:
Odds for Fleche Wallone, Valverde 3,00, Rodriguez, Martin and Henao 8,00.
Odds for Liege - Bastogne - Liege, Valverde 4.00, Martin 7,50, Gerrans 8,00, Rodriguez 13,00.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

I know its only Castilla y Leon, but its second time this year Valverde has obliterated the field. First in Andalucia, which was far more impressive, and again today against much weaker competition. He should be the favourite for F-W and L-B-L once again.

Venga Bala!

You can't say that based on Castilla y Leon. It's maybe the worst stage race of the season based on level.

He will be one of the top guys. But the favourite? Let's wait till Fleche to judge

Why can't I say he is the favourite? I acknowledged in my post that the level was abysmal, but that doesn't change the fact he did the same thing to the field in Andalucia and he has won F-W the two last year, L-B-L last year as well. He also do have Moreno this time, the guy making it hard for him to win in L-B-L.

Surely, he is not several steps better than the others, that wasn't what I implied, but I think its fair to say as of right now, he is the favourite. Surely the bookmakers will agree on that one, altho I think Henao is underrated in F-W at 7,5, hence making him a super bet for that race.

EDIT:
Odds for Fleche Wallone, Valverde 3,00, Rodriguez, Martin and Henao 8,00.
Odds for Liege - Bastogne - Liege, Valverde 4.00, Martin 7,50, Gerrans 8,00, Rodriguez 13,00.

You're right actually. I thought you're post was more oversimplified

But i have read a lot of posts implying Bala is way better then all of the other favorites, and he can only lose. That's something i disagree, because if you look at this track record, he wins 20% of the classics he competes. For sure that's impressive, but everything can happen in those races, and the level is always really high. He can lose too, even in his best shape.

And we have to wait how strong Movistar really is. Moreno really underperforms atm, and Visconti is not a cycling god. Ion is a strong guy ofcourse. But there are a lot of teams, who can make the race difficult for Bala, by sending guys up the road and trying to neutralize the race in the peloton. Katusha, AG2R, Astana, Sky, Orica and Etixx can do it.

But will they do it? I doubt about that.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Moreno underperforms atm, Ion was sick, but Visconti is going really good. Then he will also be having Gorka who won last week and Nairito in L-B-L which is the only race where team strength actually matters. On paper, assuming Moreno will do better and Ion is over is sickness, I actually think they have the strongest team apart from EQS.

 

[Mr.White]

And he has a Grande Bananito at his side too!

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

And he has a Grande Bananito at his side too!

Yep, forgot him as well. Its not too shabby!

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Moreno underperforms atm, Ion was sick, but Visconti is going really good. Then he will also be having Gorka who won last week and Nairito in L-B-L which is the only race where team strength actually matters. On paper, assuming Moreno will do better and Ion is over is sickness, I actually think they have the strongest team apart from EQS.

I think Sky with Kwiat, Henao, Poels, Froome (you never know after Tour and Huy last year) and Kennaugh have a strong team too.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yeah, forgot Sky, but I think those 3 teams are pretty even on paper

 

[Arredondo]

If you look at the teams

Movistar: Bala, Nairo, Ion, Gorka and Moreno (i don't see Betancur on the starting list)

Katusha: Purito, Zaka, Machado, Taaramae

Etixx: Martin, Alaphilippe, Vakoc, Brambilla

AG2R: Bardet, Pozzo, Vuillermoz, Bakelants

Astana: Nibali, Rosa, Fuglsang, Lulu

Orica: Yates brothers, Albasini, Gerrans

Sky: Kwiat, Henao, Poels, Froome

Some really strong teams

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

If you look at the teams

Movistar: Bala, Nairo, Ion, Gorka and Moreno (i don't see Betancur on the starting list)

Katusha: Purito, Zaka, Machado, Taaramae

Etixx: Martin, Alaphilippe, Vakoc, Brambilla

AG2R: Bardet, Pozzo, Vuillermoz, Bakelants

Astana: Nibali, Rosa, Fuglsang, Lulu

Orica: Yates brothers, Albasini, Gerrans

Sky: Kwiat, Henao, Poels, Froome

Some really strong teams

You can add Aru to Astana.

 

[Velolover2]

Froome will first be starting racing again in Romandie.

I think the Mur will be conquered by Henao if he attacks with the 500 meter mark or so. If it comes down to the last 300 meters, Valverde is unbeatable.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

If you look at the teams

Movistar: Bala, Nairo, Ion, Gorka and Moreno (i don't see Betancur on the starting list)

Katusha: Purito, Zaka, Machado, Taaramae

Etixx: Martin, Alaphilippe, Vakoc, Brambilla

AG2R: Bardet, Pozzo, Vuillermoz, Bakelants

Astana: Nibali, Rosa, Fuglsang, Lulu

Orica: Yates brothers, Albasini, Gerrans

Sky: Kwiat, Henao, Poels, Froome

Some really strong teams

How can you forget the legendary Imanol Erviti?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I know its only Castilla y Leon, but its second time this year Valverde has obliterated the field. First in Andalucia, which was far more impressive, and again today against much weaker competition. He should be the favourite for F-W and L-B-L once again.

Venga Bala!

You can't say that based on Castilla y Leon. It's maybe the worst stage race of the season based on level.

He will be one of the top guys. But the favourite? Let's wait till Fleche to judge

Why can't I say he is the favourite? I acknowledged in my post that the level was abysmal, but that doesn't change the fact he did the same thing to the field in Andalucia and he has won F-W the two last year, L-B-L last year as well. He also do have Moreno this time, the guy making it hard for him to win in L-B-L.

Surely, he is not several steps better than the others, that wasn't what I implied, but I think its fair to say as of right now, he is the favourite. Surely the bookmakers will agree on that one, altho I think Henao is underrated in F-W at 7,5, hence making him a super bet for that race.

EDIT:
Odds for Fleche Wallone, Valverde 3,00, Rodriguez, Martin and Henao 8,00.
Odds for Liege - Bastogne - Liege, Valverde 4.00, Martin 7,50, Gerrans 8,00, Rodriguez 13,00.

You're right actually. I thought you're post was more oversimplified

But i have read a lot of posts implying Bala is way better then all of the other favorites, and he can only lose. That's something i disagree, because if you look at this track record, he wins 20% of the classics he competes. For sure that's impressive, but everything can happen in those races, and the level is always really high. He can lose too, even in his best shape.

And we have to wait how strong Movistar really is. Moreno really underperforms atm, and Visconti is not a cycling god. Ion is a strong guy ofcourse. But there are a lot of teams, who can make the race difficult for Bala, by sending guys up the road and trying to neutralize the race in the peloton. Katusha, AG2R, Astana, Sky, Orica and Etixx can do it.

But will they do it? I doubt about that.

He's the strong favourite because he absolutely dominated both races last season, even without a particularly strong team. At his best, Valverde is untouchable at FW and can only really be outdone by other teams ganging up against him at LBL.

The question is how close to his best he is. I would hope he's going all out for the Giro, which may mean he's slightly undercooked for the Ardennes; in that case, he's probably only got a fighter's chance at FW and LBL, like about 10 other riders.

 

[luckyboy]

Re:

If you look at the teams

Movistar: Bala, Nairo, Ion, Gorka and Moreno (i don't see Betancur on the starting list)

Katusha: Purito, Zaka, Machado, Taaramae

Etixx: Martin, Alaphilippe, Vakoc, Brambilla

AG2R: Bardet, Pozzo, Vuillermoz, Bakelants

Astana: Nibali, Rosa, Fuglsang, Lulu

Orica: Yates brothers, Albasini, Gerrans

Sky: Kwiat, Henao, Poels, Froome

Some really strong teams

Missing Romandie specialist Špilak too.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Reading from the results and interviews, seems like Bala just waited to see what state Betancur was in instead of going ballistic like last day (he may not even have had legs after that). Seems like it was just a trademark sprint today.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

I know its only Castilla y Leon, but its second time this year Valverde has obliterated the field. First in Andalucia, which was far more impressive, and again today against much weaker competition. He should be the favourite for F-W and L-B-L once again.

Venga Bala!

You can't say that based on Castilla y Leon. It's maybe the worst stage race of the season based on level.

He will be one of the top guys. But the favourite? Let's wait till Fleche to judge

Why can't I say he is the favourite? I acknowledged in my post that the level was abysmal, but that doesn't change the fact he did the same thing to the field in Andalucia and he has won F-W the two last year, L-B-L last year as well. He also do have Moreno this time, the guy making it hard for him to win in L-B-L.

Surely, he is not several steps better than the others, that wasn't what I implied, but I think its fair to say as of right now, he is the favourite. Surely the bookmakers will agree on that one, altho I think Henao is underrated in F-W at 7,5, hence making him a super bet for that race.

EDIT:
Odds for Fleche Wallone, Valverde 3,00, Rodriguez, Martin and Henao 8,00.
Odds for Liege - Bastogne - Liege, Valverde 4.00, Martin 7,50, Gerrans 8,00, Rodriguez 13,00.

You're right actually. I thought you're post was more oversimplified

But i have read a lot of posts implying Bala is way better then all of the other favorites, and he can only lose. That's something i disagree, because if you look at this track record, he wins 20% of the classics he competes. For sure that's impressive, but everything can happen in those races, and the level is always really high. He can lose too, even in his best shape.

And we have to wait how strong Movistar really is. Moreno really underperforms atm, and Visconti is not a cycling god. Ion is a strong guy ofcourse. But there are a lot of teams, who can make the race difficult for Bala, by sending guys up the road and trying to neutralize the race in the peloton. Katusha, AG2R, Astana, Sky, Orica and Etixx can do it.

But will they do it? I doubt about that.

He's the strong favourite because he absolutely dominated both races last season, even without a particularly strong team. At his best, Valverde is untouchable at FW and can only really be outdone by other teams ganging up against him at LBL.

The question is how close to his best he is. I would hope he's going all out for the Giro, which may mean he's slightly undercooked for the Ardennes; in that case, he's probably only got a fighter's chance at FW and LBL, like about 10 other riders.

If Purito is at his best, he can beat Bala on the Mur. He has done it in the past. And if Henao is in super shape, he can do it too.

Bala, Purito, Henao: not that much difference between those three. It's all about actual shape and how the race evolves.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I dont think Valverde will be at 100%, so I definitely follow you. Martin is an outsider, but I can only see those 3 potentially winning. One of my favourite one day races!

Also, how has Purito only won this race 1 time? He has consistently been the best at this type of climb for 4-5 years.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I dont think Valverde will be at 100%, so I definitely follow you. Martin is an outsider, but I can only see those 3 potentially winning. One of my favourite one day races!

Also, how has Purito only won this race 1 time? He has consistently been the best at this type of climb for 4-5 years.

Amstel Fold crashes?

Also think that Purito likes it to be a tiny bit longer/steeper

 

[ray j willings]

This I want to say .Valverde climbing on his big ring and dropping everyone old style. The guy is incredible and he really deserves a tour win when you consider riders like Wiggo and sastre etc have tour wins and are not in his league.