Hot racing coming up in Australia

[yaco]

Re:

I think Sagan and Matthews have a better chance of challenging for the overall than the climbers.

Changes to the course in the last two years have made it a climbers GC - Realistically if Porte is 90% fit he will win the GC - Reckon the main danger is Rui Costa who usually performs well early in the season - One of the Izagirre's could podium - Haas and LaTour should finish around the top 5 - For me the greater interest is in the sprints - Reckon the sprints will be shared between Ewan, Sagan, Greipel and Viviani - You are looking at two uphill finishes for GC, three pure sprints and one finish which is a strong man's sprint.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I think Sagan and Matthews have a better chance of challenging for the overall than the climbers.

Changes to the course in the last two years have made it a climbers GC - Realistically if Porte is 90% fit he will win the GC - Reckon the main danger is Rui Costa who usually performs well early in the season - One of the Izagirre's could podium - Haas and LaTour should finish around the top 5 - For me the greater interest is in the sprints - Reckon the sprints will be shared between Ewan, Sagan, Greipel and Viviani - You are looking at two uphill finishes for GC, three pure sprints and one finish which is a strong man's sprint.

Is Michael Woods riding the race again? He might have a chance against Porte.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

I think Sagan and Matthews have a better chance of challenging for the overall than the climbers.

Changes to the course in the last two years have made it a climbers GC - Realistically if Porte is 90% fit he will win the GC - Reckon the main danger is Rui Costa who usually performs well early in the season - One of the Izagirre's could podium - Haas and LaTour should finish around the top 5 - For me the greater interest is in the sprints - Reckon the sprints will be shared between Ewan, Sagan, Greipel and Viviani - You are looking at two uphill finishes for GC, three pure sprints and one finish which is a strong man's sprint.

The final hill of stage 4 is like 5%. It's still perfect for Matthews, Sagan. If a punchy sprinter is able to get enough bonus seconds in the sprints, he can win the overall.

We saw that with Gerrans in 2016 although Porte was the strongest in the race.

Ion Izagirre is not explosive enough. Gorka is but he is simply not good enough to challenge Porte. Neither is Rui Costa who isn't the same rider he once was.

Woods have a chance of staying within 10 secs of Porte if he is there.

I think Matthews (also known as "Gerrans the Second") is going to surprise if he is there. I except him to do "a Dennis" and limit his loses on Willunga Hill to win the overall.

Overall prediction:
1. Matthews
2. Porte
3. Woods

 

[tobydawq]

But Matthews will definitely not be there, so why bother talking him up?

 

[yaco]

Last time Matthews rode in Australia was 2014 - He usually starts his season in March at PN.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

I can't see anyone beating Porte.

Nobody is able to stay within 10 secs of him on Willunga Hill.

Who is going to challenge him? You need someone like Alaphilippe, Valverde or Dan Martin to put him under pressure.

The younger Gerrans could do it and Valverde cause they could climb well enough but also pick up sprint time bonuses. That's how Gerrans beat Evans. Porte just wins it on the two hilly stages, mainly Willunga.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Well taking into consideration that Porte is chucking out 7 w/kg on Willunga, Sagan would really have to go full superman to have a chance....

No chance.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Re:

Australian Road Race Titles begin this week - Orica has 9 in the men's RR, except for Jack Haig ( who is doing a Michael Matthews ), BMC has four strong riders and Team Sunweb has three or four riders - Men's RR is usually unpredictable with an even split of wins coming from the breakaway or the peleton - Durbridge could win if he brings his 2017 performance, though if Dennis puts it together he is my favorite.

Men's TT should be a battle between Dennis, Porte and Durbridge with Dennis the undoubted favourite.

Men's criterium should see a win to Orica - They have multiple options in Ewan, Meyer or Edmondson who can win.

The women's RR takes on a different dimension with Garfoot leaving Orica - Spratt, Kennedy or Roy will be hard to beat, though there will be strong opposition from the types of Garfoot, Cromwell, Gillow, Neylan and the like - This is an open race.

The women's TT should be a benefit for Garfoot, though Kennedy is a chance to podium.

The women's critierion should go to one of the Orica rider's.

Brodie Chapman has been racing strongly in Melb club racing so I'll be interested to see how she goes at Nats.
Perhaps more suited to the crit although I have no idea of her team duties.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

I can't see anyone beating Porte.

Nobody is able to stay within 10 secs of him on Willunga Hill.

Who is going to challenge him? You need someone like Alaphilippe, Valverde or Dan Martin to put him under pressure.

The younger Gerrans could do it and Valverde cause they could climb well enough but also pick up sprint time bonuses. That's how Gerrans beat Evans. Porte just wins it on the two hilly stages, mainly Willunga.

Not this year. Stage 4 is not hard enough for him, so he will have to win it on Willunga. With Stirling back, that's possibly 20 bonus seconds to whomever will challenge Porte. Be that Ulissi, Sagan, McCarthy or someone else. Only chance for anyone else to win is the bonus seconds.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I can't see anyone beating Porte.

Nobody is able to stay within 10 secs of him on Willunga Hill.

Who is going to challenge him? You need someone like Alaphilippe, Valverde or Dan Martin to put him under pressure.

The younger Gerrans could do it and Valverde cause they could climb well enough but also pick up sprint time bonuses. That's how Gerrans beat Evans. Porte just wins it on the two hilly stages, mainly Willunga.

Not this year. Stage 4 is not hard enough for him, so he will have to win it on Willunga. With Stirling back, that's possibly 20 bonus seconds to whomever will challenge Porte. Be that Ulissi, Sagan, McCarthy or someone else. Only chance for anyone else to win is the bonus seconds.

Well, if Sagan can win stages 2 and 4 and make top two on the three flat stages (I don't know if he can beat Ewan), then that will give him close to 40 seconds, which should be possible to be within the limits of on Willunga.

So he might go for it - he doesn't have a reason not to if he goes into stage 5 with the jersey. But do you really think stage 4 is for him? I have my doubts.

 

[Netserk]

From what I've seen, it is similar to Pomerance, only the very end isn't uphill.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

From what I've seen, it is similar to Pomerance, only the very end isn't uphill.

You mean Paracombe?

Or Pomarance from Tirreno?

Maybe they are two similar things.

I think it's on the limit for Sagan in January shape.

 

[Netserk]

Pomarance, damn spelling mistakes! I think it's just too shallow of a climb to see Sagan dropped, but it is far from certain in January...

 

[Krokro]

When will the official startlist be available? It looks promising given the sprinterfield.

 

[42x16ss]

Caleb Ewan wins the men’s criterium in a canter. Steele von Hoff second, but didn’t really challenge in the end. Brenton Jones 3rd. Jay McCarthy was wasteful, attacking too much during the race, finishing 5th.

 

[yaco]

And Rebecca Wiaslak beats Sarah Roy in the women's criterium - This is one Orica would have marked in the book - And Amanda Spratt will forgo the Comm Games to ride the Ardennes Classics - A wise decision because in-form she will get a top 10 and possibly a top 5 position.

Looks like Chaves is staying in Australia for the month after attending Dan Jones wedding at XMAS time.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Caleb Ewan wins the men’s criterium in a canter. Steele von Hoff second, but didn’t really challenge in the end. Brenton Jones 3rd. Jay McCarthy was wasteful, attacking too much during the race, finishing 5th.

Who was 4th?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Re: Re:

Caleb Ewan wins the men’s criterium in a canter. Steele von Hoff second, but didn’t really challenge in the end. Brenton Jones 3rd. Jay McCarthy was wasteful, attacking too much during the race, finishing 5th.

Who was 4th?

http://www.roadnationals.org.au/criterium-results.html

 

[yaco]

And Callum Scotson wins his 3rd consecutive under 23 ITT from Samuel Jenner and Jason Lea - So the MS Conti squad go 1 and 2. Like Scotson and feel he will end up a better rider than his older brother - Should be on the WT in 2019.

 

[yaco]

It's interesting that Ewan is not riding the Commonwealth Games RR in Mid April - It's at the back end of the classics season of which he rarely features - He's not riding the Giro so won't be at an altitude camp - It's a strange one.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

It's interesting that Ewan is not riding the Commonwealth Games RR in Mid April - It's at the back end of the classics season of which he rarely features - He's not riding the Giro so won't be at an altitude camp - It's a strange one.

I thought with the sprinter who dominated the Giro doing the Tour the best race for Ewan would be the Giro. Maybe the Commonwealth Games course is not a good one for Ewan ?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Due to the 42oC forecast for Saturday, the J19 road races have been rescheduled to start at 6:30am and the U23 men at 9am

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

It's interesting that Ewan is not riding the Commonwealth Games RR in Mid April - It's at the back end of the classics season of which he rarely features - He's not riding the Giro so won't be at an altitude camp - It's a strange one.

I thought with the sprinter who dominated the Giro doing the Tour the best race for Ewan would be the Giro. Maybe the Commonwealth Games course is not a good one for Ewan ?

Commonwealth Games is a flat course though he will be riding against Cavendish - Actually the parcours for the TDF 2018 is more suitable for Ewan than the Giro 2018 - In saying that the 2017 TDF was a better parcours for Ewan - Ewan is primarily riding the TDF in 2018 for two reasons - GC focus is on the Giro and the Vuelta and because MS is looking for a new sponsor and the TDF is the shopfront - Ewan should win a stage at the TDF.

 

[Yingge]

Rohan Dennis has won the ITT again - 3 in a row. Durbridge was second, then Porte and Scotson - all 3 over a minute behind.

 

[yaco]

Katrin Garfoot smashes the women's elite TTT by a lazy 2m and 28s and it currently looks like Dennis will win the men's by more than a minute - Porte is struggling a bit in the ITT which indicates he is not in top shape, so there may a glimmer of hope for others in the TDU.

Edit - Dennis wins by 1m and 7s from Durbridge and Porte third at 1m and 43s.