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I'm not sure. He's been pretty low key about his chances and admitted to not being at his best yet (which is understandable)... but if it's raced fairly easily and he's delivered perfectly to the last 300m then he's always got a good chance. I think Philipsen will get one anyway. Ewan seems in good shape too.
Tomorrow the last 50 km are flat, so the only factors which can avoid a pure mass sprint are the wind or mass falls.
At stage 5 we have 20 km away from the finish the Kerby hill with 1,6 km and 8,7 %. Perhaps there he could be dropped...
 
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That was impressive. He wasn't even really perfectly positioned on Bennett's wheel.

I'm actually a little surprised he's going so well. He skipped the Bay Crits and Aussie Nationals this year and only had like 5 race days between the TdF and TdU.

He seems to be really relaxed and to have more confidence this year. It's obviously super early but it could be a really big year for him.
 
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Tomorrow is the stage where Mitchelton Scott has to try something on the climb 20 km from the finish line. Otherwise Porte will win the TDU.

A strategy could be to go very fast at the climb to drop all the pure sprinters so that Impey has a chance to win the stage in a sprint without the pure sprinters.
 
Greipel seems to be better then last year...

He has the speed but his positioning is still a problem. Not as bad as last year because he has better support and obviously seems to be in a better shape but in todays finish anyone that wasn´t among the top 5 with 300m to go had zero chance to win. Same for stage one. Zabel blocked him and he lost 5 positions with less than 800m to go.
At this point of his career he needs a working train to compete against younger and more explosive sprinters like Ewan or Bennett.
 
Tomorrow is the stage where Mitchelton Scott has to try something on the climb 20 km from the finish line. Otherwise Porte will win the TDU.

A strategy could be to go very fast at the climb to drop all the pure sprinters so that Impey has a chance to win the stage in a sprint without the pure sprinters.
The Kerby Hill climb is a hard, short climb. But the route leading up to the ascent is fairly easy and at the top, there is still more than 20 km to the finish. It will be a sprinter match.

Impey's best chance is to chase bonus seconds including those at the Willunga stage.
 
The Kerby Hill climb is a hard, short climb. But the route leading up to the ascent is fairly easy and at the top, there is still more than 20 km to the finish. It will be a sprinter match.

Impey's best chance is to chase bonus seconds including those at the Willunga stage.

That at least a few of the sprinters will return after the climb is likely, but in my eyes Mitchelton Scott will at least try it.
It´s also possible that not every sprinter will return to the bunch. Bennett, Viviani and Greipel don´t seem in their best climbing form right now.

BTW: Trek will have an interest for tomorrow that the sprinters will return after the climb. So a logic strategy would be that guys like Pedersen will help the sprinters to come back, also if Porte would be in the front group.
 
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Okay, this beggars the question:

How is it possible that such a well-informed and cycling-wise well-educated person as logic has never heard Phil Liggett's voice before? :)

Hasn't he been known as "the voice of cycling" since the 1970's (this time, I'm not exaggerating)?
Because i live in the Dutch speaking part of Belgium and we have better commentators for roughly 95% of the races. I rarely have to endure stuff like this. In some cases i have to endure one of the Dutch commentators on Eurosport who has no idea what he's talking about (one of the two who did Tour de l'Avenir), or the Flemmish Jeroen on Eurosport who is also quite annoying, but generally speaking, i do not have to listen to English commentators a whole lot.

It is a shame that the lot of you will never get to experience José De Cauwer as co-commentator. Easily the most fun, sensible, experienced, tactically sound, logical and straight forward guy to listen to.
 
Because i live in the Dutch speaking part of Belgium and we have better commentators for roughly 95% of the races. I rarely have to endure stuff like this. In some cases i have to endure one of the Dutch commentators on Eurosport who has no idea what he's talking about (one of the two who did Tour de l'Avenir), or the Flemmish Jeroen on Eurosport who is also quite annoying, but generally speaking, i do not have to listen to English commentators a whole lot.

It is a shame that the lot of you will never get to experience José De Cauwer as co-commentator. Easily the most fun, sensible, experienced, tactically sound, logical and straight forward guy to listen to.


For this you are enduring NBC broadcast which is no as good as English Eurospot to start with. Ligget needs to retire, well needed to retire years ago. He's not the only annoying commentator we have in the US.
 
Because i live in the Dutch speaking part of Belgium and we have better commentators for roughly 95% of the races. I rarely have to endure stuff like this. In some cases i have to endure one of the Dutch commentators on Eurosport who has no idea what he's talking about (one of the two who did Tour de l'Avenir), or the Flemmish Jeroen on Eurosport who is also quite annoying, but generally speaking, i do not have to listen to English commentators a whole lot.

It is a shame that the lot of you will never get to experience José De Cauwer as co-commentator. Easily the most fun, sensible, experienced, tactically sound, logical and straight forward guy to listen to.

Of course, but the same goes for us Danes. Practically all races are shown on TV here with good commentators (although one guy in particular on Eurosport is inept as was Jørgen Leth, whom we thankfully don't have to endure listening to anymore).

Nevertheless, I have heard Liggett hundreds of times on Youtube videos of races many years ago and in other situations as well. I just thought he was more ubiquitous than he apparently is.

But yeah, he is incredibly annoying.
 
Of course, but the same goes for us Danes. Practically all races are shown on TV here with good commentators (although one guy in particular on Eurosport is inept as was Jørgen Leth, whom we thankfully don't have to endure listening to anymore).

Nevertheless, I have heard Liggett hundreds of times on Youtube videos of races many years ago and in other situations as well. I just thought he was more ubiquitous than he apparently is.

But yeah, he is incredibly annoying.
Well, to be clear, it wasn't the first time ever i had heard his voice. I just didn't know who it was and yesterday his way of talking really annoyed me.
 
Nevertheless, I have heard Liggett hundreds of times on Youtube videos of races many years ago and in other situations as well. I just thought he was more ubiquitous than he apparently is.
I'm Belgian and Dutch speaking, and I know Liggett quite well. Often watched livestreams of California, Down Under and other races that are or were not live on our channels, and got to know Phil that way. A lot of highlight videos on YouTube starr him as well. So I'm a bit amazed honestly that Logic doesn't know him or his voice.

At first I quite liked him, but I guess that was mostly me being enthusiastic that internet made it possible for me to watch international broadcasts of races that weren't on TV here. In recent years I noticed more and more lacks in his knowledge, which got annoying indeed.

As to second wat Logic said, Flemish cycling commentators are probably the best ones. Because of tradition, and being so close to so many parts of the peloton. José De Cauwer is a landmark, as is his 'lead' Michel Wuyts (although sometimes contested because of particular declarations). Fred De Bruyne is a legend, and growing up with Van Lombeek-Uytterhoeven as cycling voices was a pleasure.
 
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