Hour Record Official Discussion Thread

[DFA123]

Well, using an air desnity that is most likely lower than it will be at Wiggins record attempt, using values for an extreme areo frame(which Wiggins isn't allowed to use) and using a CWA value of 0.21 (0,25 is a normal triathlon position while 0.2 would be an extreme position ala Boardman for a 75 Kilo rider) which a guy Wiggins size can't hardly achieve on such a bike, we can bring the Watts down to 6.7 per kilo. Assuming that Wiigins will be able to go 55km/h with anything lowewr than 6.7 Watt/Kilo is absurd and not worth debatable.

Feel free to do your own calculations.

I think you are the only one making assumptions in your caluclations. There are so many variables that we don't know, that it's ridiculous to try to put such a definitive number on it.

What if he starts the race at 80kg (still lower than his weight from his track days)? Then he would only need around 6.3w/kg.

What if he has refined his position using technology that wasn't available to Boardman and others, and so has an even lower drag?

What if the barometric conditions are different than has been predicted? What if Wiggins manages to pace himself better than Boardman?

W/kg can be measured pretty accurately for steep climbs when a rider's weight is known because of the lack of importance of drag, but on a time trial at 50+km/h it's pure guesswork. You'd be much better looking at the total watts needed for a speed, dependent on drag and pressure - as Alex's graph has done above.

 

[SeriousSam]

So what do you believe his weight, the barometric conditions and the aero cofficient are? Either point estimates or distributions that capture your subjective beliefs will do. Let's propagate the uncertainty in inputs through to w/kg.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

So what do you believe his weight, the barometric conditions and the aero cofficient are? Either point estimates or distributions that capture your subjective beliefs will do. Let's propagate the uncertainty in inputs through to w/kg.

I've got no idea. I guess weight could be anything from 73-82kg. Aero Cofficient could be anywhere from 0.18 - 0.22. Barometric pressure could be anything as well.

So I'd guess you'd be looking at a range from around 5.8w/kg to 7w/kg to go 55km/h. That's quite a big difference.

 

[Richeypen]

Well, using an air desnity that is most likely lower than it will be at Wiggins record attempt, using values for an extreme areo frame(which Wiggins isn't allowed to use) and using a CWA value of 0.21 (0,25 is a normal triathlon position while 0.2 would be an extreme position ala Boardman for a 75 Kilo rider) which a guy Wiggins size can't hardly achieve on such a bike, we can bring the Watts down to 6.7 per kilo. Assuming that Wiigins will be able to go 55km/h with anything lowewr than 6.7 Watt/Kilo is absurd and not worth debatable.

Feel free to do your own calculations.

Well if you say so it must be true

 

[avanti]

Re:

http://alex-cycle.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/pressure-on-hour.html

The BBC weather forecast for Sunday is 1032 millibar (= hPa)

 

[SeriousSam]

I too made a scientific graph that puts Wiggans targetted ride into perspective.

Unless of course he beats Boardman. Then most of the points will be literally off the chart.

 

[danielovichdk2]

Why is he racing at night ? Couldn't you argue that a lot of tension and stress during the day could give Sir Wiggo a worse time ?

Just thinking about that...

 

[avanti]

Re:

Why is he racing at night ? Couldn't you argue that a lot of tension and stress during the day could give Sir Wiggo a worse time ?

Just thinking about that...

Maybe that is when the air in the velodrome is warmest - warm air is less dense than cooler air.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Well, using an air desnity that is most likely lower than it will be at Wiggins record attempt, using values for an extreme areo frame(which Wiggins isn't allowed to use) and using a CWA value of 0.21 (0,25 is a normal triathlon position while 0.2 would be an extreme position ala Boardman for a 75 Kilo rider) which a guy Wiggins size can't hardly achieve on such a bike, we can bring the Watts down to 6.7 per kilo. Assuming that Wiigins will be able to go 55km/h with anything lowewr than 6.7 Watt/Kilo is absurd and not worth debatable.

Feel free to do your own calculations.

I have. And I do aerodynamics testing for a living. I don't know Wiggin's CdA, and neither do you.

A CdA of 0.20m^2 is entirely feasible for a rider of Wiggin's size. Sure it's a very good number but that's a significant reason why he's a top TT rider. I know of other riders with similar morphology and with CdA of that level or better. Indeed I've a 78kg mate with a CdA under 0.19m^2 on his track set up. Achieving a low CdA is a combination of being aerodynamically gifted and a lot of aerodynamics testing and work.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Re: Re:

Why is he racing at night ? Couldn't you argue that a lot of tension and stress during the day could give Sir Wiggo a worse time ?

Just thinking about that...

Maybe that is when the air in the velodrome is warmest - warm air is less dense than cooler air.

The velodrome is temperature controlled.

 

[SeriousSam]

As far as I know (but don't know official resource, knowledge comes from the forum) Wiggins revealed the power he did in the long time trial in the Tour. He weight was known back then as well, unlike know, where we seemingly can't narrow it down to even a 10kg range. He held 6.4w/kg for more than an hour.

 

[TommyGun]

The high atmospheric pressure forecast for tomorrow is still worrying, though. I recall that Brad was very happy about the depression system over London last week: however it has turned into a stable anticyclonic weather now. Anyone knows if the atmospheric pressure can be controlled inside the velodrome?

 

[Shame]

I posted this under TRACK
(the hour record is not road racing)

Here's results from the World Championships 4K Pursuit:

1 Bobridge avg. 56.201
2 Kueng avg 55.991
3 Serov avg 55.537
4 Morice avg 55.452
5 Tennat avg 55.228
6 Thiele avg 55.019

55 K is 4:21.818 every 4k.

 

[elfed68]

55km/h would roughly mean 6.8 Watt/Kilo for an entire 60 minutes. Clinic would explode.
And that's a rather conservative calculation.

Not sure where you came up with the 6.8 w/kg. Thats just pure BS.

Track speed is slightly more about raw power and Wigo purposely gained some weight just to gain few extra watts. Those few extra kilos will not create much of an extra drag or extra power needed to carry the extra weight.

So for example, if he gained 5% of extra power from the additional muscle/weight gain that may equal to 2% of extra speed. Thats all he needs to do 55kph as his power was already few % superior over Dowsett before he even gained the extra weight/power and he needs 4% to crack 55kmh.

Well that's not ***, that's mathematics. No matter what Wiggins did, he can't defy the laws of physics. 6.8Watt/Kilo is the least amount of power a male at Wiggins size/weight has roughly to produce to go 55km/h on a wooden track on those bikes.

By the way, you do realize that extra muscles need extra oxygen support, right?

Speed on a track is primarily a function of a rider's ratio of power to aerodynamic drag area, power / CdA in units W/m^2.

In Wiggins's case, to do 55km on a high barometric pressure day (say 1025hPa), he'd need in the vicinity of 2300-2400W/m^2.

One cannot know the power demand without also knowing his coefficient of drag area.

e.g. if he has a CdA of 0.200m^2, then the power demand would be around 460-480W. That too high for him.

But if he had a CdA of less than that, say 0.19m^2, then the power demand is correspondingly lower at 440-455W, which is closer to his capable range, and ~6.0W/kg if he is say 75kg.

I don't know what his current body mass is. It would certainly be higher than in his GT days. Track (and flat riding) favours higher body mass as it doesn't add so much to aero drag.

Wiggin's track CdA has never been published as far as I know, and even if it had, he's done quite a bit of aero refinement work these past months, so in reality neither you nor I know. But it is possible to say what W/m^2 is required.

On a good day with right conditions, I think 54.5km is about right. Something like 1-km to 1-mile more than Dowsett depending on environmental conditions.

That assumes he paces well and doesn't go out too hard.

Please help with Show that n²-n-90=0 as Hannah's dying for more sweets.

 

[jaylew]

Going to be hilarious if he doesn't get it.

 

[Volderke]

If Rominger can do more than 55K on a TRADITIONAL bike, there is no reason at least one guy per generation could do it.
For me, Rominger still holds the record unless someone goes over his (odd) 55.2.. record set on a bike that isn't really anything different (or even worse) compared to the bikes used in 2014-2015.

 

[damian13ster]

Re:

Going to be hilarious if he doesn't get it.

He will just go to higher attitude next time (and anyone who wants to beat his record).
Air pressure makes a huge difference. Look at speed-skating for example. Its influence is massive.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Re: Re:

Going to be hilarious if he doesn't get it.

He will just go to higher attitude next time (and anyone who wants to beat his record).
Air pressure makes a huge difference. Look at speed-skating for example. Its influence is massive.

yes. I can't believe how idiotic cyclists are. look at the track in aguascalientes. latin american guys there are breaking world records. like narvaez in 3 km pursuit. a 17 year old breaking the world record. the difference is HUGE. also look at thomas dekker. he nearly broke the record despite clocking on sea level just above 50 km/h in training. they calculated he gained more than 80 watts over the altitude.

 

[jens_attacks]

i don't think tony rominger is forgotten because his distance is the reference to wiggins. that's what he's trying to beat
rominger not dowsett, he said it himself maybe not in my words

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

what time will wiggins ride and is it anywhere on tv?

 

[Volderke]

No, I didn't say that. I said he wasn't caught. I understand comprehensive reading is hard for 1st graders, even if they highlight exactly what I said, and still try to put words in my mouth.

@ Jens_attacks: I haven't found too many articles referring to Rominger. To Boardman/Voigt/O'bree/Indurain: yes. To Rominger: no.
But I hope Wiggins writes history so that any reference to Romingers' hour record won't be the elephant in the room during hour record discussions, because for now, it is just this (no more, no less).

 

[Volderke]

Yes, I am the only one. Together with Sir Bradley Wiggins and I quote:
“You want the list to be the great names: Merckx, Indurain, Rominger. I want my name on that list,” he said.
http://velonews.competitor.com/2015/06/news/wiggins-determined-to-set-enduring-hour-record_372818

Wiggins has said he is targeting a ride in excess of 55 kilometres – something that an unhelpfully high air pressure forecast of 1030mb may hinder – and admitted that Tony Rominger’s record ride of 55.291km from November 1994 as a benchmark in training.
http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest-news/bradley-wiggins-seeking-validity-in-special-tour-hour-club-175532

"Using the magnificent 1994 hour record of the Swiss rider Tony Rominger as his template, Wiggins has publicly targeted a distance of 55.250km"
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/jun/05/bradley-wiggins-pain-barrier-hour-record

Pointless discussing this any further, Ryo...

Rominger being a laughable rider... I see you are not following pro cycling for as long as needed to form any opinion about him...

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

wtf would you know about that. rominger was the laughing stock of cycling in the early 90s when all of a sudden he became a monster. and wiggins said the same things about lance. I wouldn't take his opinion serious at all. he seems less informed than you even. wiggins will only follow somewhat romingers timechecks.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Going to be hilarious if he doesn't get it.

He will just go to higher attitude next time (and anyone who wants to beat his record).
Air pressure makes a huge difference. Look at speed-skating for example. Its influence is massive.

yes. I can't believe how idiotic cyclists are. look at the track in aguascalientes. latin american guys there are breaking world records. like narvaez in 3 km pursuit. a 17 year old breaking the world record. the difference is HUGE. also look at thomas dekker. he nearly broke the record despite clocking on sea level just above 50 km/h in training. they calculated he gained more than 80 watts over the altitude.

He didn't gain watts. He actually produced significantly less power at altitude. The trade off is obviously that you go further for the same watts than you do at sea level. However,not everyone reacts the same at altitude; some riders lose more power than others - perhaps Wiggins has calculated that he can perform better at sea level. Or perhaps he doesn't want to spend three weeks acclimatising. Or perhaps he wants to set it in his home country in a packed velodrome. It's unreasonable to call cyclists idiotic, when there are several other important factors to consider.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

what time will wiggins ride and is it anywhere on tv?

It starts 6.30pm UK time and Sly sports are showing it so I guess there will be streams online.